Joe Jones prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Joe Jones P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 245 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%21.8%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	23	113	25	19	4	0%	1.0	17.4%	18.9%	-1.5%	3.3%	5.96	5.86	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	23	113	25	19	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	16.8%	5.3%	3.5%	5.96	5.70	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	54	239	59	29	4	7%	1.2	19.7%	13.5%	6.2%	2.0%	4.53	4.25	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	3	54	239	59	29	4	7%	1.2	19.7%	13.5%	6.2%	2.0%	4.53	4.25	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	3	54	239	59	29	4	7%	1.2	24.7%	12.1%	12.6%	1.7%	4.53	3.49	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.8%	11.1%	10.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TOR	31	0	32	136	29	15	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.87	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	99	20	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.2%	4.78	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		66	3	76	352	67	54	9	5%	1.2	18.9%	15.2%	3.7%	2.4%	4.95	4.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	8	200	922	175	140	22	5%	1.2	18.9%	15.2%	3.7%	2.4%	4.95	4.77	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joe Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.8%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.87	21.5%	10.2%	32	+0.19	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	91
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	89
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	85
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	84
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	84
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	78
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	78
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	78
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	78
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	78
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	78
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	77
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	76
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.7%	11.2%	1.19	4.73
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10