Juan Santander — OGILVIE

Juan SantanderC Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 265 lbs A HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 138 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .259 / .308

PA138

HR3

K%29

BB%7

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT34

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	78	73	10	2	0	0	1	35	3	6	0	137	182	164	346	27	256	45	1	149	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	78	72	14	3	0	0	2	24	3	6	0	194	247	236	483	42	286	31	3	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	113	13	3	0	1	8	43	2	1	1	115	187	168	355	53	174	35	7	156	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	107	18	4	0	1	14	28	2	1	1	168	276	234	510	65	218	23	11	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	123	113	23	4	0	3	8	30	1	2	0	204	262	319	581	115	247	24	7	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	2 teams	—	123	108	28	5	0	5	13	23	1	2	0	259	344	444	789	185	284	19	11	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	234	40	4	1	4	16	82	0	8	2	171	224	248	472	77	240	33	6	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	223	49	6	1	6	27	60	0	8	2	220	304	336	640	117	270	24	11	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	HOU	—	138	127	26	4	1	3	9	40	1	3	1	205	263	323	586	118	269	29	7	258	55	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	HOU	30%	165	152	30	5	1	3	11	47	1	3	1	197	256	303	559	105	273	28	7	267	62	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2028	25	MLB	HOU	44%	272	249	51	9	1	6	19	76	2	5	1	205	267	321	588	116	274	28	7	272	67	-10	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	26	MLB	HOU	51%	345	314	67	12	2	8	25	95	3	7	2	213	278	341	619	127	275	28	7	275	69	-12	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2030	27	MLB	HOU	52%	386	352	74	13	2	9	28	107	3	8	2	210	274	335	609	125	275	28	7	277	70	-13	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.6
2031	28	MLB	HOU	53%	408	372	78	14	2	9	30	113	3	8	2	210	274	331	605	121	275	28	7	276	69	-14	+1	-1	+7	+12	0.5
2027	24	MLB	HOU	30%	50	47	10	2	0	1	3	14	0	1	0	213	260	319	579	106	275	28	6	264	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	25	MLB	HOU	44%	120	109	24	4	1	3	9	34	1	2	1	220	286	358	644	138	277	28	8	269	64	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	26	MLB	HOU	51%	175	159	34	6	1	4	13	48	1	4	1	214	277	340	617	126	278	27	7	272	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	27	MLB	HOU	52%	202	183	40	7	1	5	15	56	2	4	1	219	285	350	635	131	278	28	7	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2031	28	MLB	HOU	53%	217	197	42	8	1	5	16	60	2	4	1	213	279	340	619	127	277	28	7	272	67	-8	+0	-0	+4	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	764	695	150	27	4	18	56	212	6	15	4	216	280	344	624	128	281	28	7	272	66	-29	+1	-0	+14	+22	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	127	23	3	15	48	180	5	13	3	215	280	340	620	125	281	28	7	272	66	-25	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	2290	2099	412	70	10	46	155	668	19	51	12	196	258	305	563	109	262	29	7	254	53	-122	+5	-1	+41	+65	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	117	20	3	13	44	190	5	14	3	196	257	305	563	109	262	29	7	254	53	-35	+2	-0	+12	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	78	72	14	3	0	0	2	24	3	6	0	194	247	236	483	42	286	31	3	223	29	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2022	19	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	107	18	4	0	1	14	28	2	1	1	168	276	234	510	65	218	23	11	246	46	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2023	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	39	37	11	0	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	297	333	378	712	81	345	18	5	321	104	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	84	71	17	5	0	4	11	16	1	1	0	239	349	479	828	239	250	19	13	362	135	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	223	49	6	1	6	27	60	0	8	2	220	304	336	640	117	270	24	11	291	81	-6	+1	—	—	+7	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	902	20	18	211	272	333	+16	+12	1.0	1.0
	/162	664	15	13	211	272	333	+11.9	+8.8	0.7	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Santander (OGILVIE)	23	29→34	39→44	49→54	48	199/259/308	109	269	3	3	29%	7%	55	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	189/255/325	136	272	15	10	35%	6%	59	-1.1	206/270/351	145	304	16	9	36%	6%	72	-0.2	198/264/347	149	294	17	7	37%	6%	65	-0.2
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	56	-1.3	200/251/341	141	277	15	11	32%	5%	61	-1.0	192/239/333	141	232	19	10	27%	5%	51	-1.1
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Willie MacIver 2021 · A	24	35→33	41→45	49→55	36	182/228/277	95	252	9	9	31%	4%	33	-2.9	190/258/311	121	280	14	15	35%	7%	56	-1.3	225/305/348	123	321	11	18	31%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	44→55	46→45	37	202/247/323	121	282	12	7	32%	5%	53	-1.5	194/256/297	103	298	10	10	36%	7%	50	-1.7	163/228/254	91	247	10	10	36%	8%	25	-0.9
✕Brady Policelli 2019 · A	24	40→37	42→45	51→50	41	200/254/308	108	269	9	14	28%	6%	53	-1.5	194/258/312	118	268	11	14	30%	7%	56	-1.3	176/245/296	120	243	12	15	31%	7%	43	-1.5
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	39→46	44→45	48→45	45	198/261/314	116	258	13	6	28%	8%	57	-1.2	214/281/337	123	274	14	7	26%	8%	72	-0.2	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→40	44	198/269/304	106	269	10	4	29%	7%	59	-1.1	175/249/267	92	300	10	4	41%	8%	41	-2.3	154/232/237	84	271	10	3	44%	8%	25	-2.5
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→50	48→40	39	178/241/285	107	272	11	4	37%	7%	42	-2.3	203/260/325	122	275	13	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Jesus Valdez 2021 · A	23	42	42→45	50	43	204/273/309	105	279	9	11	29%	7%	61	-1.0	203/243/322	119	301	13	9	36%	4%	51	-1.7	196/233/312	116	281	13	4	35%	4%	41	-1.0
✕Osiris Johnson 2023 · A	22	36	41→45	51→50	39	186/239/277	91	257	10	9	31%	6%	38	-2.6	194/242/295	101	272	11	14	32%	5%	44	-2.1	178/225/278	100	246	13	18	33%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Mycal Jones 2010 · A	23	40→45	41→45	55	42	196/253/300	105	266	6	14	28%	6%	50	-1.7	209/265/324	115	283	10	15	29%	6%	62	-0.9	219/277/306	87	283	6	24	24%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	35→40	45→55	45→50	43	180/260/303	123	268	12	7	36%	9%	55	-1.4	206/284/377	171	294	20	9	35%	9%	85	+0.7	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	43→50	51→55	47	212/285/327	114	283	10	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	202/288/323	121	269	12	14	28%	10%	72	-0.2	197/277/356	159	247	21	23	29%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Jeff Arnold 2012 · A	24	36	45→50	49→40	37	188/243/307	119	268	12	5	34%	6%	49	-1.8	209/267/348	139	309	13	5	35%	6%	69	-0.4	200/257/342	141	301	13	3	36%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Nick Quintana 2022 · A	24	33→39	43→45	47→45	45	172/254/283	111	243	11	6	33%	9%	47	-1.9	188/273/293	105	265	11	5	31%	9%	58	-1.2	172/265/268	95	240	10	3	30%	10%	45	-1.0