Juan Santander — OGILVIE

Juan SantanderC Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 265 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 138 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .260 / .312

PA11

HR0

K%29

BB%7

ISO113

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT33

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	78	72	14	3	0	0	2	24	3	6	0	194	247	236	483	42	286	31	3	223	37	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2022	19	ROK	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	107	18	4	0	1	14	28	2	1	1	168	276	234	510	65	218	23	11	246	52	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	39	37	11	0	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	297	333	378	712	81	345	18	5	321	104	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	84	71	17	5	0	4	11	16	1	1	0	239	349	479	828	239	250	19	13	362	131	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	223	49	6	1	6	27	60	0	8	2	220	304	336	640	117	270	24	11	291	83	-5	+1	—	—	+5	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	78	73	10	2	0	0	1	35	3	6	0	137	182	164	346	27	239	45	1	150	-12	-10	+1	—	—	+2	-0.8
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	113	14	3	0	1	8	42	2	1	1	124	195	177	372	53	173	34	7	162	-4	-15	-0	—	—	+3	-1.3
2023	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	39	38	10	0	0	1	1	10	0	1	0	263	282	342	624	79	332	26	3	269	68	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	84	75	12	4	0	2	7	22	1	1	0	160	241	293	534	133	189	26	8	240	49	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	234	42	4	1	5	16	83	0	8	2	179	232	269	501	90	244	33	6	219	34	-20	+1	—	—	+5	-1.4
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	78	73	10	2	0	0	1	35	3	6	0	137	182	164	346	27	256	45	1	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	78	72	14	3	0	0	2	24	3	6	0	194	247	236	483	42	286	31	3	223	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	113	14	3	0	1	8	42	2	1	1	124	195	177	372	53	186	34	7	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	107	18	4	0	1	14	28	2	1	1	168	276	234	510	65	218	23	11	246	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	123	113	22	4	0	3	8	32	1	2	0	195	254	310	564	115	241	26	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	123	108	28	5	0	5	13	23	1	2	0	259	344	444	789	185	284	19	11	349	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	234	42	4	1	5	16	83	0	8	2	179	232	269	501	90	250	33	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	223	49	6	1	6	27	60	0	8	2	220	304	336	640	117	270	24	11	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	78	74	10	2	0	0	1	35	3	6	0	135	182	162	344	27	239	45	1	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros Blue	—	123	112	14	3	0	1	8	42	2	1	1	125	195	179	374	54	173	34	7	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	123	113	22	4	0	3	8	32	1	2	0	195	254	310	564	115	234	26	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	234	42	4	1	5	16	83	0	8	2	179	232	269	501	90	244	33	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	123	113	22	4	0	3	8	32	1	2	0	195	254	310	564	115	234	26	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	252	234	42	4	1	5	16	83	0	8	2	179	232	269	501	90	244	33	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	23	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		268	27	9	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	30%	165	151	31	5	1	4	12	47	1	3	1	205	268	331	599	126	272	28	7	269	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	44%	272	248	51	9	1	6	20	75	2	5	1	206	270	323	593	117	273	28	7	274	72	-9	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	51%	345	314	67	12	2	8	25	95	3	7	2	213	278	341	619	127	274	28	7	277	74	-11	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	386	351	74	13	2	9	29	106	3	8	2	211	277	336	613	125	274	27	8	278	75	-12	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	408	371	79	14	2	10	31	112	3	8	2	213	279	342	621	129	274	27	8	277	74	-13	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	416	378	80	14	2	10	32	115	3	8	2	212	278	339	617	127	273	28	8	276	73	-14	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	417	379	79	14	2	9	32	117	3	8	2	208	275	327	603	119	272	28	8	273	71	-15	+1	-2	+7	+9	0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	30%	50	46	9	2	0	1	4	14	0	1	0	196	260	304	564	109	274	28	8	263	68	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	44%	120	109	24	4	1	3	9	33	1	2	1	220	286	358	644	138	275	28	8	268	72	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	51%	175	159	34	6	1	4	13	48	1	4	1	214	277	340	617	126	276	27	7	271	74	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	202	183	39	7	1	5	15	55	2	4	1	213	280	344	624	131	276	27	7	272	75	-6	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	217	197	42	8	1	5	16	60	2	4	1	213	279	340	619	127	276	28	7	271	74	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	219	198	42	8	1	5	17	61	2	4	1	212	281	338	619	126	275	28	8	270	73	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	217	196	41	7	1	5	17	61	2	4	1	209	279	332	611	122	274	28	8	267	71	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1200	1088	231	42	6	28	91	332	10	23	6	212	279	339	618	127	277	28	8	270	63	-39	+2	-2	+21	+26	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	125	23	3	15	49	180	5	12	3	212	278	338	616	126	277	28	8	270	63	-21	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	2996	2735	550	94	13	65	215	862	24	64	15	201	265	316	582	115	266	29	7	262	63	-79	+5	-4	+43	+52	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	119	20	3	14	47	187	5	14	3	201	265	315	580	115	266	29	7	262	63	-21	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.0	1,338	31	27	211	273	336	+24	+16	1.8	1.8
/162	664	15	13	+11.9	+7.9	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Santander (OGILVIE)	23	28→33	40→45	49→54	49	200/260/312	112	268	3	3	29%	7%	62	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	36	42→50	52→40	39	184/231/287	103	246	10	7	29%	5%	44	-2.8	211/256/331	120	295	12	5	31%	5%	64	-1.3	193/238/303	110	272	11	1	33%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Kendall Simmons 2023 · A	23	36	47→50	49→50	38	188/254/321	133	272	15	10	35%	6%	62	-1.4	207/272/348	141	302	15	9	35%	6%	75	-0.5	202/267/346	145	293	16	7	35%	6%	71	-0.3
✕Cody Puckett 2010 · A	23	39→40	46→50	51→50	38	199/250/328	129	280	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.5	202/254/342	140	275	15	11	31%	5%	66	-1.1	193/247/331	138	257	15	11	30%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Willie MacIver 2021 · A	24	38→35	43→50	49→55	37	193/242/301	107	263	10	9	30%	5%	52	-2.2	194/263/314	120	281	13	15	34%	7%	63	-1.3	231/310/361	130	325	12	18	30%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	41→36	42→45	49→50	39	204/254/301	97	266	10	15	27%	5%	57	-1.8	211/256/332	121	306	12	11	34%	5%	64	-1.3	186/219/331	145	265	16	11	36%	3%	51	-0.5
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/338	130	278	13	10	29%	6%	76	-0.4	207/287/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jake Rogers 2018 · A	23	41→40	44→55	47→45	42	204/268/326	123	280	11	10	30%	7%	68	-1.0	194/266/335	141	268	16	7	32%	8%	70	-0.9	216/279/422	206	274	28	2	32%	7%	93	+0.4
✕Max George 2019 · A	23	35→38	44→45	53→55	44	180/263/295	115	240	11	20	29%	7%	60	-1.6	190/276/300	110	283	11	20	34%	8%	66	-1.1	150/259/288	138	250	17	20	43%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Kyler Fedko 2023 · A	23	43→42	42→50	51→55	47	210/284/319	109	280	9	10	27%	8%	72	-0.7	203/288/320	117	266	12	14	26%	10%	74	-0.5	197/276/341	144	245	18	22	27%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Jason Lopez 2021 · A	23	40	43→50	46→45	38	201/248/313	112	281	10	7	32%	5%	57	-1.8	196/259/294	98	295	9	10	34%	8%	57	-1.8	166/232/250	84	247	9	10	35%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Tate Blackman 2018 · A	23	40→35	42→45	49→40	44	198/269/304	106	269	10	4	29%	7%	63	-1.3	179/252/275	96	301	10	4	41%	8%	51	-2.3	159/236/248	88	274	11	3	43%	8%	37	-2.3
✕Rodolfo Durán 2021 · A	23	39	47→50	47→45	36	206/242/334	128	274	16	4	31%	4%	59	-1.6	200/240/330	130	259	14	4	28%	5%	58	-1.7	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Kevin Padlo 2019 · A	23	36→40	44→50	45→50	43	180/261/297	117	271	11	7	36%	9%	59	-1.6	201/279/356	155	288	17	9	34%	9%	80	-0.2	190/261/345	156	258	19	12	33%	8%	68	-0.7
✕Chase Strumpf 2021 · A	23	44→37	41→50	49→45	42	208/284/313	105	305	8	7	32%	7%	71	-0.8	197/291/331	134	305	14	5	37%	10%	79	-0.2	181/287/328	147	281	17	4	38%	11%	74	-0.4
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2016 · A	23	40→37	49→50	53→50	39	207/268/353	146	287	16	9	33%	6%	74	-0.5	208/273/341	133	295	14	10	33%	6%	74	-0.6	202/274/346	144	284	16	9	33%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→45	49→40	39	180/241/289	109	274	11	4	37%	7%	49	-2.4	201/257/318	117	274	12	4	30%	6%	62	-1.4	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	35→45	44→45	52→60	39	184/241/293	109	256	12	21	32%	6%	50	-2.3	221/288/352	131	295	12	39	28%	8%	81	-0.1	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	44→45	49→50	45	195/276/305	110	270	12	10	31%	8%	67	-1.1	191/265/303	112	284	10	13	34%	8%	61	-1.5	178/252/295	117	273	8	16	35%	8%	53	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps