Travis Sthele
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+0.6
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 198 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.6 · 2028
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%16.4%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%8.9%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.6peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 5 | 4 | 12 | 57 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8.4% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 6.75 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 23 | 21 | 101 | 452 | 79 | 46 | 8 | 12.9% | 12.0% | 2.2% | 4.81 | 4.71 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 22 | 139 | 561 | 82 | 24 | 10 | 11.3% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 4.22 | 4.04 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 83 | 38 | 14 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 102 | 42 | 15 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 113 | 44 | 16 | 19.1% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 116 | 45 | 17 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 116 | 45 | 17 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 113 | 45 | 17 | 19.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 108 | 44 | 17 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 103 | 43 | 17 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 98 | 42 | 16 | 18.4% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 92 | 41 | 16 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 85 | 40 | 16 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 79 | 39 | 15 | 17.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 72 | 37 | 15 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 65 | 36 | 14 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 47 | 252 | 1070 | 126 | 86 | 24 | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.58 | 4.36 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 37 | 200 | 850 | 100 | 68 | 19 | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 4.58 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Sthele (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.35 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 417 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Arias R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 94 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 108 | 93 |
| Ryan Hawks R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.77 | 13.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 2.10 | 19.9% | 14.5% | 15 | -2.67 | 2.10 | 252 | 93 |
| Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 92 |
| Jose Reyes R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .289 | 5.11 | 11.0% | 2.8% | 100 | +0.87 | 4.24 | 225 | 91 |
| Blaine Knight R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .263 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 6.6% | 159 | +0.05 | 4.35 | 269 | 91 |
| Brooks Hall R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 91 |
| Nick Petree R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.15 | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 122 | 91 |
| Trey Nielsen R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.5% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .298 | 4.68 | 13.4% | 6.6% | 49 | +0.23 | 3.52 | 282 | 90 |
| DJ Baxendale R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.5% | 8.6% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.05 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 259 | -0.73 | 2.86 | 426 | 90 |
| Preston Morrison R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.99 | 13.4% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .300 | 4.95 | 17.1% | 9.4% | 58 | -0.04 | 2.94 | 305 | 90 |
| Chase Mallard R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.42 | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 123 | 90 |
| Grahamm Wiest R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.15 | 11.1% | 7.8% | 3.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.15 | 120 | 90 |
| Mike Augliera R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 114 | 89 |
| Zeke Spruill R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.94 | 11.8% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 114 | 89 |
| Jake Thompson R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 13.2% | 9.7% | 2.2% | .342 | 4.76 | 17.9% | 2.3% | 28 | +0.36 | 3.50 | 212 | 89 |
| Wily Peralta R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 89 |
| Frank Batista R 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 89 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 14.3% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .302 | 4.58 | 15.7% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 240 | 89 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.77 | 15.0% | 9.0% | 1.4% | .302 | 4.29 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 123 | +0.52 | 2.88 | 356 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| Totals | $8M | $64M | +$56M | ||