Travis Sthele — OGILVIE

Travis Sthele P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION26 act + 85 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%10.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP85

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 111 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	21	MIX	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	8.4%	6.7%	1.7%	2.9%	6.75	4.85	—
2023	21	MIX	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	10.5%	7.0%	3.5%	1.8%	6.75	4.18	—
2024	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	12.9%	12.0%	0.9%	2.0%	4.81	4.62	—
2024	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.81	3.93	—
2025	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	11.3%	4.9%	6.3%	2.4%	4.22	4.08	—
2025	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	14.6%	4.3%	10.3%	1.8%	4.22	3.37	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	8	2	26	99	18	7	0	25%	3.2	13.2%	9.2%	4.0%	0.0%	0.35	3.15	+0.4
ROS	24	MLB	WSH	81	0	85	361	36	27	10	0%	1.1	10.0%	7.6%	2.4%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.0%	7.6%	2.4%	2.7%	5.10	5.10	—
2026 TOT	24	MLB	WSH	—	—	111	460	54	34	10	—	—	11.8%	7.5%	4.3%	2.1%	4.00	4.65	+1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	WSH	14	14	86	365	47	27	10	100%	6.2	12.8%	7.5%	5.3%	2.7%	4.92	4.85	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	WSH	14	14	86	365	53	27	10	100%	6.2	14.5%	7.4%	7.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.72	+0.4
2029	27	MLB	WSH	14	14	85	360	53	27	10	100%	6.1	14.9%	7.5%	7.3%	2.8%	4.74	4.73	+0.4
2030	28	MLB	WSH	13	13	83	349	52	27	10	100%	6.4	14.9%	7.7%	7.2%	2.9%	4.77	4.80	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	WSH	13	13	79	333	56	24	10	100%	6.1	16.7%	7.1%	9.6%	3.1%	4.71	4.67	+0.3
2032	30	MLB	WSH	12	12	74	313	51	23	10	100%	6.2	16.3%	7.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.84	+0.0
2033	31	MLB	WSH	11	11	69	292	47	23	10	100%	6.3	15.9%	7.8%	8.2%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	-0.2
2027	25	MLB	WSH	6	6	37	156	20	12	4	100%	6.2	12.8%	7.5%	5.3%	2.7%	4.92	4.85	-0.1
2028	26	MLB	WSH	9	9	57	241	35	18	7	100%	6.3	14.5%	7.4%	7.0%	2.8%	4.78	4.72	-0.1
2029	27	MLB	WSH	11	11	66	279	41	21	8	100%	6.0	14.9%	7.5%	7.3%	2.8%	4.74	4.73	-0.0
2030	28	MLB	WSH	11	11	69	291	43	22	9	100%	6.3	14.9%	7.7%	7.2%	2.9%	4.77	4.80	-0.0
2031	29	MLB	WSH	11	11	69	291	49	21	9	100%	6.3	16.7%	7.1%	9.6%	3.1%	4.71	4.67	+0.1
2032	30	MLB	WSH	11	11	67	283	46	21	9	100%	6.1	16.3%	7.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.84	-0.1
2033	31	MLB	WSH	10	10	63	266	42	21	9	100%	6.3	15.9%	7.8%	8.2%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			70	70	429	1809	277	136	55	100%	6.1	15.3%	7.5%	7.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.42	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	129	63	26	100%	6.1	15.3%	7.5%	7.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.42	+2.3
Career	—			59	49	277	1169	139	95	24	83%	4.7	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.25	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			43	35	200	843	101	68	17	83%	4.7	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.1%	4.19	4.25	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Sthele (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	10.0%	7.6%	2.7%	—	4.77	14.0%	6.6%	258	-0.33	—	—	—
Braden Olthoff R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP-	4.57	12.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	108	89
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP-	3.95	10.6%	6.6%	1.7%	.310	5.41	12.4%	2.3%	30	+1.46	3.95	229	84
Elliot Morris R 2025 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP	4.46	12.8%	10.4%	2.1%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	102	84
Jordan Cooper R 2028 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP	5.05	9.2%	10.2%	2.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	106	84
Keith Couch R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	25	SP-	4.63	9.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.326	3.92	11.0%	3.6%	127	-0.71	3.92	252	83
Frank Batista R 2028 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP-	4.33	12.1%	8.2%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	118	83
Kevin Biondic R 2025 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP-	5.39	8.6%	11.0%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	100	83
Grahamm Wiest R 2025 · 5.51 FIP	23	SP-	5.51	11.1%	7.8%	4.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.51	120	83
Hyrum Formo R 2025 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	10.5%	5.9%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	107	82
Javier Solano R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	25	SP	4.99	11.0%	6.2%	3.7%	.331	4.06	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.93	3.63	506	82
Brooks Hall R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	14.3%	6.9%	2.3%	.291	3.94	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.09	3.46	274	82
Tony Bucciferro R 2027 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP-	4.96	6.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	107	81
Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP	4.38	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	.293	3.88	12.9%	5.1%	252	-0.50	3.51	334	81
Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	24	SP	4.68	15.0%	8.6%	3.2%	.305	5.95	18.2%	7.9%	55	+1.27	4.68	161	81
Allen Webster R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	25	SP	4.99	14.0%	9.1%	3.5%	.356	5.50	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.51	4.43	177	81
Logan Shore R 2026 · 4.27 FIP	24	SP-	4.27	11.5%	10.5%	1.5%	.274	4.81	16.7%	6.3%	125	+0.54	2.92	386	81
Reed Reilly R 2025 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP-	4.86	10.0%	4.1%	3.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.86	101	81
Trey Nielsen R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	12.5%	7.5%	2.3%	.298	4.33	13.4%	6.6%	49	+0.09	3.53	282	81
Luke Irvine R 2029 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP-	4.17	13.4%	9.8%	1.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	104	80
Mike Augliera R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	12.0%	7.2%	2.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	114	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	81	14.4%	7.5%	1.15	4.84
Josh Fleming ('24)	5	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Wily Peralta ('22)	7	71	16.1%	9.8%	1.22	4.66
Luis Perdomo ('22)	5	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Ty Blach ('24)	6	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Kendall Graveman ('23)	7	90	17.7%	7.9%	1.07	3.89