Travis Sthele

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1074ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AWSH	23	21	101	4.81	3.93	17.5%	10.2%	—	K 12.9% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.70
2025	23	A+WSH	23	22	139	4.22	3.37	14.6%	4.3%	—	K 11.3% · BB 4.9% · FIP 4.04
2026	24	MIX3 levels	10	4	34	2.10	3.22	15.4%	8.1%	—	K 12.2% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.17
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.13	5.13	10.0%	7.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	7	7	40	4.96	4.91	12.6%	7.9%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	9	9	52	4.91	4.90	13.3%	7.9%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control60Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMike Thompson (age 25) · Josh Banks (age 26) · Brad Lincoln (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%10.0%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	8.4%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%	6.75	4.71	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	10.5%	7.0%	3.5%	1.8%	6.75	4.18	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	12.9%	12.0%	0.9%	2.1%	4.81	4.70	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	12.9%	12.0%	0.9%	2.1%	4.81	4.70	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.81	3.93	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	11.3%	4.9%	6.3%	2.3%	4.22	4.04	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	11.3%	4.9%	6.3%	2.3%	4.22	4.04	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	14.6%	4.3%	10.3%	1.8%	4.22	3.37	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	4	34	136	21	11	1	40%	3.4	12.2%	8.7%	3.6%	0.0%	2.10	3.17	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	4	34	136	21	11	1	40%	3.4	12.2%	8.7%	3.6%	0.0%	2.10	3.17	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	4	34	136	21	11	1	40%	3.4	15.4%	8.1%	7.4%	0.7%	2.10	3.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.0%	7.9%	2.1%	2.7%	5.13	5.13	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	94	396	50	31	11	100%	5.9	12.6%	7.9%	4.8%	2.7%	4.96	4.91	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	347	46	27	10	100%	5.9	13.3%	7.9%	5.4%	2.8%	4.91	4.90	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	320	44	26	9	100%	5.8	13.6%	8.1%	5.6%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	296	40	24	9	100%	5.8	13.6%	8.3%	5.3%	3.1%	5.00	5.07	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	64	268	35	23	9	100%	5.8	13.2%	8.6%	4.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.24	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	40	169	21	13	5	100%	5.7	12.6%	7.9%	4.8%	2.7%	4.96	4.91	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	52	220	29	17	6	100%	5.8	13.3%	7.9%	5.4%	2.8%	4.91	4.90	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	33	19	7	100%	5.7	13.6%	8.1%	5.6%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	33	20	7	100%	5.7	13.6%	8.3%	5.3%	3.1%	5.00	5.07	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	54	228	30	20	7	100%	6.0	13.2%	8.6%	4.7%	3.3%	5.15	5.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	260	1098	146	90	33	100%	6.0	13.3%	8.2%	5.2%	3.0%	4.99	4.64	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	112	69	25	100%	6.0	13.3%	8.2%	5.2%	3.0%	4.99	4.64	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		61	51	286	1206	143	97	24	84%	4.7	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.0%	4.28	4.22	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	843	100	68	17	84%	4.7	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 29 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.17 (+0.53)K% 16.5% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.51%	—	×0.740	12.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.180	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 139 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.04 (+0.65)K% 14.6% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.62%	—	×0.770	11.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.28%	—	×1.150	4.92%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷0.967	×1.250	2.30%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 101 IPFIP 3.88 → 4.70 (+0.82)K% 17.5% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.48%	—	×0.740	12.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.18%	—	×1.180	12.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.078	×1.300	2.13%

Result: FIP 3.88 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 11 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.71 (+0.81)K% 11.3% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.32%	—	×0.740	8.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.180	6.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷0.917	×1.300	2.68%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Sthele (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	10.0%	7.9%	2.7%	—	4.92	13.1%	5.2%	252	-0.21	—	—	—
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	86
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	86
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	86
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	84
Brian Bannister R 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP-	4.93	11.1%	11.7%	2.3%	.234	4.32	13.3%	6.6%	502	-0.61	3.97	667	82
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	81
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	81
Patrick McGuff R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	12.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	133	81
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	81
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	80
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	80
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	79
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	79
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	79
Wes Obermueller R 2003 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	11.2%	7.6%	3.3%	.301	4.77	11.1%	2.0%	183	-0.16	4.72	308	79
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	79
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	78
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	78
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	74	12.8%	8.1%	1.12	5.00
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Matt Whiteside ('05)	2.0	58	14.5%	8.8%	1.15	5.23
Bryan Hickerson ('95)	2.0	81	15.9%	8.1%	1.16	4.72
Lee Guetterman ('84-'96, 2 WAR*)	3.3	82	13.3%*	7.6%*	0.86*	4.45*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*