Travis Sthele — OGILVIE

Travis Sthele P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 198 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%10.0%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	8.4%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%	6.75	4.71	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	8.4%	6.7%	1.7%	2.7%	6.75	4.71	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	12	57	6	4	1	80%	2.4	10.5%	7.0%	3.5%	1.8%	6.75	4.18	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	12.9%	12.0%	0.9%	2.1%	4.81	4.70	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	12.9%	12.0%	0.9%	2.1%	4.81	4.70	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	21	101	452	79	46	8	91%	4.4	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.8%	4.81	3.93	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	11.3%	4.9%	6.3%	2.3%	4.22	4.04	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	11.3%	4.9%	6.3%	2.3%	4.22	4.04	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	22	139	561	82	24	10	96%	6.0	14.6%	4.3%	10.3%	1.8%	4.22	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	10	4	34	136	21	11	1	40%	3.4	12.2%	8.7%	3.6%	0.0%	2.10	3.17	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	10	4	34	136	21	11	1	40%	3.4	12.2%	8.7%	3.6%	0.0%	2.10	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	WSH	1	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	2.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	4.50	1.22	—
2026	24	A RAW	WSH	8	3	29	109	18	8	0	38%	3.6	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	0.0%	0.31	2.64	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	WSH	1	1	3	18	1	3	1	100%	3.3	5.6%	16.7%	-11.1%	5.6%	16.20	7.79	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	WSH	6	0	7	28	3	2	1	0%	1.1	10.0%	7.8%	2.2%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	41	164	24	13	2	—	—	14.5%	8.0%	6.5%	1.1%	2.59	3.48	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	126	534	68	41	15	100%	6.0	12.8%	7.7%	5.1%	2.7%	4.94	4.87	+0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	126	534	77	41	15	100%	6.0	14.5%	7.6%	6.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.74	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	526	78	41	15	100%	5.9	14.9%	7.7%	7.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	121	510	76	40	15	100%	6.0	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.9%	4.79	4.82	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	115	487	71	39	15	100%	6.1	14.7%	8.1%	6.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	108	458	66	38	15	100%	6.0	14.3%	8.4%	5.9%	3.3%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	54	228	29	18	6	100%	6.0	12.8%	7.7%	5.1%	2.7%	4.94	4.87	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	84	355	51	27	10	100%	6.0	14.5%	7.6%	6.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.74	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	96	405	60	31	11	100%	6.0	14.9%	7.7%	7.1%	2.8%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	102	431	64	34	13	100%	6.0	14.9%	7.9%	7.0%	2.9%	4.79	4.82	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	101	426	63	35	13	100%	5.9	14.7%	8.1%	6.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.95	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	97	410	59	34	13	100%	6.1	14.3%	8.4%	5.9%	3.3%	5.03	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	534	2255	326	179	67	100%	6.0	14.5%	7.9%	6.5%	3.0%	4.86	4.50	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	122	67	25	100%	6.0	14.5%	7.9%	6.5%	3.0%	4.86	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		61	51	286	1206	143	97	24	84%	4.7	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	843	100	68	17	84%	4.7	11.9%	8.1%	3.8%	2.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Sthele (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	10.0%	7.8%	2.7%	—	4.79	14.0%	6.4%	377	-0.33	—	—	—
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	88
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	86
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	84
Keith Couch R 2015 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	9.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.326	4.05	11.0%	3.6%	127	-0.60	4.05	252	84
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	84
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	83
Hyrum Formo R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	10.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	107	83
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	83
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	83
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	82
Logan Shore R 2019 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	11.5%	10.5%	1.8%	.274	4.87	16.7%	6.3%	125	+0.41	3.09	386	82
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Brannon Easterling R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP	4.38	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	.293	3.95	12.9%	5.1%	252	-0.43	3.50	334	81
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
Trey Nielsen R 2016 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	12.5%	7.5%	2.6%	.298	4.61	13.4%	6.6%	49	+0.20	3.52	282	81
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	81
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	80
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	115	13.9%	7.9%	1.12	4.89
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56