Ethan Long

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

APROSPECTExtFA 2037

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX2 levels	7	0	7	2.57	3.39	13.9%	11.1%	—	K 13.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.33

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027Ext$0.0M2028Ext$0.0M2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

ERA—

FIP—

K%—

BB%—

K-BB%—

Proj IP—

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	7	36	5	4	0	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.57	3.33	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	7	36	5	4	0	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.57	3.33	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	7	36	5	4	0	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.57	3.39	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	MLE		7	0	7	36	5	4	0	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.57	3.33	—
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		200	0	200	1029	143	114	0	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	0.0%	2.57	3.33	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 7 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.06 (+0.49)K% 15.6% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.740	11.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.180	7.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).