Lucas Dunn
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+/ASD | 543 | .241/.368/.382 | 7 | 19 | 61 | — | .184/.283/.282 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA/A+SD | 499 | .219/.330/.330 | 8 | 19 | 51 | — | .186/.273/.270 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA/A+/ROKSD | 252 | .204/.304/.301 | 3 | 8 | 23 | — | .146/.219/.217 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 148 | 127 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 44 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 236 | 336 | 394 | 729 | 157 | 341 | 30 | 11 | 324 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 30 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 364 | 533 | 500 | 1.033 | 136 | 471 | 17 | 17 | 467 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 355 | 298 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 97 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 215 | 337 | 319 | 656 | 104 | 302 | 27 | 14 | 305 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 188 | 150 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 49 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 293 | 427 | 507 | 934 | 213 | 410 | 26 | 16 | 407 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 20 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 100 | 211 | 311 | 158 | 25 | 5 | 139 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 479 | 405 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 56 | 122 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 227 | 340 | 336 | 675 | 109 | 304 | 25 | 12 | 310 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | — | 86 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 294 | 293 | 587 | 93 | 333 | 35 | 10 | 269 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 115 | 98 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 173 | 277 | 296 | 573 | 122 | 203 | 24 | 10 | 260 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Padres | — | 51 | 43 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 279 | 380 | 326 | 706 | 47 | 429 | 31 | 14 | 324 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 148 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 174 | 253 | 295 | 549 | 121 | 296 | 43 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 30 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 292 | 433 | 417 | 850 | 125 | 365 | 23 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 355 | 313 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 124 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 169 | 263 | 243 | 506 | 73 | 264 | 35 | 10 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Lake Elsinore Storm | — | 188 | 160 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 69 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 212 | 319 | 356 | 675 | 144 | 332 | 37 | 11 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 20 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 100 | 211 | 311 | 158 | 30 | 5 | 92 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 479 | 422 | 81 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 153 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 192 | 281 | 273 | 553 | 81 | 272 | 32 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | San Antonio Missions | — | 86 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 212 | 192 | 404 | 51 | 281 | 43 | 7 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Fort Wayne TinCaps | — | 115 | 102 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 137 | 214 | 245 | 459 | 108 | 172 | 31 | 7 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Padres | — | 51 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 174 | 240 | 196 | 436 | 22 | 318 | 45 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 156 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 192 | 284 | 314 | 598 | 122 | 333 | 40 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 178 | 149 | 38 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 49 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 255 | 369 | 409 | 779 | 154 | 364 | 28 | 12 | 348 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 543 | 473 | 88 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 54 | 193 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 186 | 284 | 290 | 574 | 104 | 295 | 36 | 10 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 543 | 448 | 108 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 79 | 146 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 241 | 368 | 382 | 750 | 141 | 338 | 27 | 15 | 340 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 441 | 82 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 159 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 186 | 273 | 270 | 543 | 84 | 269 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 499 | 424 | 93 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 57 | 127 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 219 | 330 | 330 | 660 | 111 | 290 | 25 | 11 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 252 | 226 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 97 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 150 | 223 | 226 | 448 | 75 | 240 | 38 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 252 | 216 | 44 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 74 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 204 | 304 | 301 | 605 | 97 | 289 | 29 | 11 | 276 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 178 | 156 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 192 | 284 | 314 | 598 | 122 | 308 | 40 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 543 | 473 | 88 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 54 | 193 | 11 | 19 | 5 | 186 | 284 | 290 | 574 | 104 | 288 | 36 | 10 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 443 | 82 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 159 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 185 | 273 | 269 | 542 | 84 | 261 | 32 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 252 | 229 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 97 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 148 | 223 | 223 | 445 | 74 | 239 | 38 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 252 | 229 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 97 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 148 | 223 | 223 | 445 | 74 | 239 | 38 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1472 | 1296 | 234 | 42 | 13 | 18 | 127 | 520 | 32 | 47 | 20 | 181 | 270 | 275 | 545 | 94 | 281 | 35 | 9 | 242 | 50 | -87 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +32 | -5.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 104 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 56 | 230 | 14 | 21 | 9 | 182 | 271 | 278 | 549 | 96 | 283 | 35 | 9 | 242 | 50 | -39 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 115 PAwOBA .258 → .203 (−55)K% 24.3% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.35% | ÷0.982 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.43% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.71% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×0.978 | 13.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.29% | ÷0.973 | ×0.810 | ×0.967 | ×0.978 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.850 | ×0.967 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷0.916 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.66% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 116, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .258 → .203; ISO .122 → .101; BABIP .203 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASan Antonio Missions · 86 PAwOBA .263 → .200 (−63)K% 34.9% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.88% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 19.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 3.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .263 → .200; ISO .093 → .069; BABIP .333 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Padres · 51 PAwOBA .322 → .203 (−120)K% 31.4% → 45.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.37% | ÷0.990 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.73% | ÷1.002 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.04% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 28.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.042 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 4.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.892 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 94, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .322 → .203; ISO .047 → .027; BABIP .429 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 479 PAwOBA .305 → .250 (−54)K% 25.5% → 31.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.47% | ÷1.014 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.71% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷0.956 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 21.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.01% | ÷1.118 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.001 | ×0.988 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.47% | ÷0.848 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .305 → .250; ISO .109 → .087; BABIP .304 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 20 PAwOBA .135 → .092 (−43)K% 25.0% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.98% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .135 → .092; ISO .158 → .103; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 355 PAwOBA .300 → .236 (−64)K% 27.3% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.32% | ÷0.992 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.80% | ÷1.011 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.89% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.47% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.965 | ×0.998 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.99% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .300 → .236; ISO .104 → .082; BABIP .302 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 188 PAwOBA .399 → .298 (−102)K% 26.1% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.06% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.43% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 10.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.77% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.990 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.87% | ÷1.115 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×0.990 | 9.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.990 | 4.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.97% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .399 → .298; ISO .213 → .160; BABIP .410 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ALake Elsinore Storm · 148 PAwOBA .318 → .232 (−86)K% 29.7% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.932 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.69% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | — | 19.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | — | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.82% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | — | 4.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.41% | ÷0.815 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 100, 2B 111, 3B 106, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .318 → .232; ISO .157 → .117; BABIP .341 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).