Alex Erro
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ASalem Red Sox | 373 | .242/.332/.321 | 2 | 6 | 45 | — | .199/.261/.263 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+BOS | 139 | .301/.377/.415 | 2 | 2 | 70 | — | .240/.290/.326 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA/A+BOS | 283 | .254/.337/.371 | 6 | 7 | 50 | — | .203/.255/.303 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 373 | 327 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 75 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 332 | 321 | 653 | 80 | 307 | 20 | 11 | 301 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 139 | 123 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 301 | 377 | 415 | 791 | 114 | 376 | 21 | 10 | 354 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 34 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 394 | 429 | 823 | 143 | 333 | 21 | 15 | 361 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 220 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 40 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 250 | 329 | 364 | 693 | 114 | 281 | 16 | 10 | 312 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 373 | 342 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 105 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 261 | 263 | 525 | 64 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 139 | 129 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 290 | 326 | 615 | 85 | 311 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 34 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 333 | 400 | 733 | 133 | 314 | 26 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 249 | 231 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 54 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 195 | 244 | 290 | 534 | 95 | 223 | 22 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 373 | 342 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 105 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 261 | 263 | 525 | 64 | 280 | 28 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 373 | 327 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 75 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 242 | 332 | 321 | 653 | 80 | 307 | 20 | 11 | 301 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 139 | 129 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 290 | 326 | 615 | 85 | 315 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 139 | 123 | 37 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 301 | 377 | 415 | 791 | 114 | 376 | 21 | 10 | 354 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 260 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 200 | 254 | 288 | 543 | 88 | 239 | 22 | 6 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 283 | 248 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 47 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 254 | 337 | 371 | 708 | 117 | 286 | 17 | 11 | 318 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 373 | 341 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 105 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 199 | 261 | 264 | 525 | 65 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 139 | 129 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 290 | 326 | 615 | 85 | 311 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 283 | 262 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 198 | 254 | 286 | 541 | 88 | 234 | 22 | 6 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 795 | 731 | 151 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 52 | 203 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 207 | 264 | 283 | 547 | 77 | 270 | 26 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -46 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +17 | -3.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 123 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 166 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 206 | 264 | 279 | 543 | 74 | 270 | 26 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -38 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 249 PAwOBA .307 → .233 (−74)K% 16.1% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.06% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 21.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.04% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 18.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .307 → .233; ISO .114 → .096; BABIP .281 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 34 PAwOBA .363 → .313 (−50)K% 20.6% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.59% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 28.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .363 → .313; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .333 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 139 PAwOBA .348 → .271 (−77)K% 20.9% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.86% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.07% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.85% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 26.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 3.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×0.978 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.84% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .348 → .271; ISO .114 → .091; BABIP .376 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASalem Red Sox · 373 PAwOBA .294 → .235 (−59)K% 20.1% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.11% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.99% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.41% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×0.980 | 21.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×1.014 | ×0.980 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×0.980 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.858 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 89, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .294 → .235; ISO .080 → .064; BABIP .307 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).