Kenny Serwa

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #988

ETA2029FG ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	27	MIX2 levels	27	22	118	3.58	3.14	16.4%	9.6%	—	K 13.0% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.62
2026	28	MIX2 levels	26	26	123	4.24	4.16	16.8%	11.2%	—	K 13.2% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.68
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	13	13	80	5.18	5.18	11.5%	11.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBDET	4	4	24	5.03	5.00	14.2%	10.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBDET	6	6	36	5.08	5.15	14.5%	10.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Command55FB velo30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDaniel Guerrero (age 31) · David Fletcher (age 30) · Robert Ellis (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%11.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4045

CMD5055

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	118	511	84	49	2	81%	4.4	13.0%	10.6%	2.4%	0.5%	3.58	3.62	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	118	511	84	49	2	81%	4.4	13.0%	10.6%	2.4%	0.5%	3.58	3.62	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	118	511	84	49	2	81%	4.4	16.4%	9.6%	6.8%	0.4%	3.58	3.14	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	123	537	90	60	10	100%	4.7	13.2%	12.2%	1.0%	2.1%	4.24	4.68	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	123	537	90	60	10	100%	4.7	13.2%	12.2%	1.0%	2.1%	4.24	4.68	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	123	537	90	60	10	100%	4.7	16.8%	11.2%	5.6%	1.9%	4.24	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	13	13	80	338	39	38	8	100%	6.2	11.5%	11.1%	0.4%	2.3%	5.18	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	76	320	45	33	8	100%	5.8	14.2%	10.3%	4.0%	2.6%	5.03	5.00	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	71	298	43	31	8	100%	5.9	14.5%	10.5%	4.0%	2.8%	5.08	5.15	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	24	101	14	10	3	100%	6.0	14.2%	10.3%	4.0%	2.6%	5.03	5.00	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	36	152	22	16	4	100%	6.0	14.5%	10.5%	4.0%	2.8%	5.08	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	60	253	36	26	7	100%	6.0	14.4%	10.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.06	4.71	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	120	87	23	100%	6.0	14.4%	10.4%	4.0%	2.7%	5.06	4.71	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		53	48	241	1048	138	120	14	91%	4.5	13.1%	11.4%	1.7%	1.3%	3.92	4.16	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	870	114	99	12	91%	4.5	13.1%	11.4%	1.7%	1.3%	3.92	4.16	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenny Serwa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	11.5%	11.1%	2.3%	—	5.07	14.4%	4.0%	146	-0.11	—	—	—
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	90
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	85
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	85
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	83
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	78
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	77
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	77
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	76
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2000 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	11.0%	8.9%	1.8%	.246	4.53	9.6%	1.4%	79	+0.23	4.25	387	76
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	75
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	75
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	73
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	73
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	73
Danny Gutierrez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP	4.35	10.7%	9.8%	1.7%	.299	4.11	15.1%	9.0%	71	-0.24	3.34	239	72
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	72
Scott Carroll R 2014 · 4.35 FIP	29	SP-	4.35	11.2%	7.7%	2.2%	.296	4.52	11.9%	3.7%	248	+0.17	3.92	377	72
Julian Arballo R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	28	SP	4.46	12.6%	12.0%	1.7%	.274	4.45	13.8%	0.9%	40	-0.01	4.45	214	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	76	13.4%	10.7%	0.99	5.10
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Sean Lowe ('03)	2.2	88	14.6%	9.9%	1.04	4.95
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Mike Barlow ('75-'81, -2 WAR*)	1.2	62	14.0%*	9.4%*	0.76*	4.97*
Mike Dyer ('89-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.2	79	17.6%*	10.6%*	0.85*	4.58*