Kenny Serwa
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 114
ERA5.03
FIP5.03
K%10.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%0.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 118 | 511 | 84 | 49 | 2 | 81% | 4.4 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 3.58 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 22 | 118 | 511 | 84 | 49 | 2 | 81% | 4.4 | 16.4% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 0.4% | 3.58 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 16 | 16 | 64 | 298 | 55 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 5.46 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 29 | 28 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 10.6% | 10.4% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 10.6% | 10.4% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 5.03 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 129 | 572 | 84 | 62 | 12 | — | — | 14.7% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 5.24 | 4.89 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 10.6% | 10.4% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 5.03 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 78 | 330 | 45 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 4.87 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 73 | 310 | 43 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 4.87 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.3 | 13.9% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 63 | 268 | 37 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.7% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.90 | 4.52 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 117 | 82 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 13.7% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.90 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 43 | 38 | 182 | 809 | 111 | 92 | 10 | 88% | 4.2 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 4.24 | 4.06 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 42 | 200 | 887 | 122 | 101 | 11 | 88% | 4.2 | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 4.24 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kenny Serwa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 10.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | — | 4.88 | 13.7% | 4.0% | 152 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 85 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 85 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 84 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 82 |
| David Fletcher R 2028 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 80 |
| Caleb Clay R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 78 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | .262 | 4.97 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 135 | +0.63 | 4.34 | 300 | 78 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 78 |
| Frank Batista R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 78 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 78 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2029 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 77 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 75 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 74 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 74 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2027 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 72 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 72 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.25 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.84 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 44 | -0.41 | 3.84 | 272 | 72 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .346 | 4.95 | 8.4% | -0.8% | 52 | +0.27 | 4.68 | 104 | 72 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 72 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 78 | 12.6% | 9.9% | 0.89 | 4.94 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |