Kenny Serwa
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.9
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
AA
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.1%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%6.8%
IP117
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
STUF3040
CMD5055
K†3030
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 27 | 22 | 118 | 511 | 84 | 49 | 2 | 13.0% | 10.6% | 0.5% | 3.58 | 3.63 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 2 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 21.21 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 117 | 493 | 72 | 49 | 10 | 14.7% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 121 | 524 | 73 | 54 | 11 | 14.0% | 10.3% | 2.1% | 5.26 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 74 | 47 | 11 | 15.3% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 4.61 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 111 | 468 | 73 | 45 | 11 | 15.6% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.63 | 4.66 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 71 | 44 | 11 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | DET | 19 | 19 | 103 | 433 | 67 | 43 | 11 | 15.5% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | DET | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 63 | 41 | 11 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.83 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 58 | 40 | 11 | 14.9% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 5.00 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 54 | 39 | 10 | 14.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 5.05 | 5.12 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 82 | 346 | 49 | 37 | 10 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 5.17 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 24 | 123 | 542 | 68 | 59 | 4 | 12.5% | 10.9% | 0.7% | 4.26 | 3.80 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 39 | 200 | 884 | 111 | 96 | 7 | 12.5% | 10.9% | 0.7% | 4.26 | 3.80 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kenny Serwa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 14.7% | 9.9% | 2.1% | — | 4.67 | 15.5% | 5.8% | 332 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 95 |
| Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 93 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.13 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.09 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.04 | 4.09 | 165 | 91 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 90 |
| Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 89 |
| Frank Batista R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 88 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 87 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 86 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 85 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.37 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .311 | 3.92 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 44 | -0.45 | 3.92 | 272 | 85 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.11 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 107 | 85 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.82 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 211 | 85 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 84 |
| Hector Galvan R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.97 | 11.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | .307 | 4.27 | 13.2% | 3.1% | 162 | -0.70 | 3.59 | 406 | 84 |
| Tim Atherton R 2023 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 84 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.5% | .349 | 4.16 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.15 | 2.98 | 306 | 84 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 83 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.86 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .328 | 4.86 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.00 | 4.54 | 269 | 83 |
| Mikey O'Brien R 2023 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.58 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 1.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 110 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.