Kenny Serwa — OGILVIE

Kenny Serwa P Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION123 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%10.6%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%0.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3040

CMD5055

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	118	511	84	49	2	81%	4.4	13.0%	10.6%	2.4%	0.5%	3.58	3.62	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	22	118	511	84	49	2	81%	4.4	13.0%	10.6%	2.4%	0.5%	3.58	3.62	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	22	118	511	84	49	2	81%	4.4	16.4%	9.6%	6.8%	0.4%	3.58	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	26	26	123	537	90	60	10	100%	4.7	13.2%	12.2%	1.0%	2.1%	4.24	4.68	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	26	26	123	537	90	60	10	100%	4.7	13.2%	12.2%	1.0%	2.1%	4.24	4.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	DET	25	25	117	515	84	57	9	100%	4.7	16.3%	11.1%	5.2%	1.7%	4.31	4.08	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	DET	1	1	6	22	6	3	1	100%	6.0	27.3%	13.6%	13.6%	4.5%	3.00	5.02	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	1	1	7	31	3	3	1	100%	7.4	10.6%	10.1%	0.5%	2.1%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	130	568	93	63	11	—	—	16.4%	11.1%	5.3%	1.9%	4.29	4.70	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	13	13	78	330	45	31	8	100%	6.0	13.5%	9.3%	4.3%	2.3%	4.83	4.77	+0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	12	12	73	310	43	30	8	100%	6.1	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	2.5%	4.87	4.92	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	24	101	14	9	2	100%	6.0	13.5%	9.3%	4.3%	2.3%	4.83	4.77	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	38	160	22	15	4	100%	6.3	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	2.5%	4.87	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	263	36	25	6	100%	6.2	13.8%	9.5%	4.3%	2.4%	4.85	4.48	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	116	80	19	100%	6.0	13.8%	9.5%	4.3%	2.4%	4.85	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		53	48	241	1048	138	120	14	91%	4.5	13.1%	11.4%	1.7%	1.3%	3.92	4.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	870	114	99	12	91%	4.5	13.1%	11.4%	1.7%	1.3%	3.92	4.16	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenny Serwa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	10.6%	10.1%	2.1%	—	4.84	13.7%	4.3%	152	-0.15	—	—	—
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	86
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	86
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	84
Marco Quevedo R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	9.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.262	4.67	11.9%	6.3%	135	+0.54	4.13	300	82
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	81
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	81
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	80
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	78
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	77
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	77
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	76
Cesar Carrillo R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	31	SP	4.14	13.8%	9.7%	1.8%	.307	4.46	12.6%	2.6%	145	+0.32	4.14	325	74
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	74
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	74
Hector Galvan R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SP	4.99	11.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	4.33	13.2%	3.1%	162	-0.66	3.59	406	74
Nick Petree R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	11.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	122	74
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	73
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	73
Oscar Hurtado R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	28	SP	4.27	12.0%	7.7%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	140	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	78	12.6%	9.7%	0.89	4.90
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10