Dillon Larsen

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 29 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	24	0	34	4.72	4.35	26.7%	18.7%	—	K 21.7% · BB 21.6% · FIP 5.90
2023	25	MIX2 levels	41	0	70	5.01	4.34	24.0%	20.8%	—	K 18.8% · BB 23.4% · FIP 4.83
2024	26	MIX3 levels	21	1	33	4.68	3.65	20.5%	17.8%	—	K 15.5% · BB 17.8% · FIP 4.04
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	11	0	12	4.71	4.71	21.6%	11.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBARI	6	0	6	4.78	4.85	21.4%	11.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Colton Johnson (age 26) · Jose Meraz (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.6%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	34	150	40	28	3	0%	1.4	21.7%	21.6%	0.1%	3.5%	4.72	5.90	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	34	150	40	28	3	0%	1.4	26.7%	18.7%	8.0%	2.0%	4.72	4.35	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	70	337	81	70	3	0%	1.7	18.8%	23.4%	-4.6%	0.7%	5.01	4.83	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	70	337	81	70	3	0%	1.7	24.0%	20.8%	3.3%	0.9%	5.01	4.34	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	33	146	30	26	0	5%	1.6	15.5%	17.8%	-2.2%	0.0%	4.68	4.04	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	33	146	30	26	0	5%	1.6	15.5%	17.8%	-2.2%	0.0%	4.68	4.04	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	33	146	30	26	0	5%	1.6	20.5%	17.8%	2.7%	0.0%	4.68	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.78	4.85	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.78	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.78	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.5%	9.9%	3.1%	4.78	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		86	1	137	633	119	137	7	1%	1.6	18.7%	21.7%	-2.9%	1.2%	4.86	4.90	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	1	200	924	173	200	11	1%	1.6	18.7%	21.7%	-2.9%	1.2%	4.86	4.90	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dillon Larsen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.6%	11.4%	2.9%	—	4.85	21.4%	9.9%	20	+0.14	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	83
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	79
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	77
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	76
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	76
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	76
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	76
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	76
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	75
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	75
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	75
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	75
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	73
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	72
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	2.62	195	70
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	70
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	70
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	70