Trevor Brigden

P Durham Bulls

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MIX2 levels	37	0	59	3.05	2.56	34.8%	3.5%	—	K 27.6% · BB 4.2% · FIP 3.50
2023	27	AAATB	44	2	78	3.46	3.66	28.9%	11.9%	—	K 24.8% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.81
2024	28	AAATB	32	0	35	7.64	4.77	28.3%	9.4%	—	K 24.3% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.98
2027PROJ	31	MLBTB	19	0	20	4.31	4.31	23.8%	8.9%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBTB	7	0	7	4.45	4.54	23.3%	9.4%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%23.8%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	2	49	200	69	10	8	6%	1.6	22.9%	4.1%	18.9%	5.4%	4.59	4.67	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	2	49	200	69	10	8	6%	1.6	34.5%	5.0%	29.5%	4.0%	4.59	3.02	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	59	230	80	8	8	0%	1.6	27.6%	4.2%	23.4%	4.0%	3.05	3.50	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	59	230	80	8	8	0%	1.6	34.8%	3.5%	31.3%	3.5%	3.05	2.56	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	44	2	78	329	95	39	9	5%	1.8	24.8%	10.7%	14.2%	2.6%	3.46	3.81	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	44	2	78	329	95	39	9	5%	1.8	28.9%	11.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.46	3.66	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.5%	15.8%	5.2%	7.64	4.98	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.5%	15.8%	5.2%	7.64	4.98	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	32	0	35	159	45	15	8	0%	1.1	28.3%	9.4%	18.9%	5.0%	7.64	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TB	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.9%	14.8%	3.1%	4.31	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	TB	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	82	27	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.4%	13.9%	3.4%	4.45	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		144	4	221	918	230	66	37	3%	1.5	25.0%	7.2%	17.8%	4.0%	4.27	4.12	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	4	200	830	208	60	34	3%	1.5	25.0%	7.2%	17.8%	4.0%	4.27	4.12	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Brigden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	23.8%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.54	23.3%	13.9%	20	+0.23	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	80
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	80
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	77
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	75
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	74
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	74
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	74
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	73
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	73
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	73