Jackson Lancaster

P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 LHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	1	34	5.82	3.34	31.0%	8.4%	—	K 24.0% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.48
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	0	53	2.91	3.23	24.6%	9.2%	—	K 19.5% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.15
2026	27	MIX2 levels	31	0	40	9.15	6.22	21.2%	15.7%	—	K 16.8% · BB 17.5% · FIP 6.95
2027PROJ	28	MLBTB	24	0	25	5.56	5.56	18.4%	14.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTB	8	0	8	5.51	5.57	18.6%	13.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJuan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · John Bale (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%18.4%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	27	121	42	16	2	5%	1.2	18.9%	17.6%	1.3%	2.6%	4.00	5.14	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	27	121	42	16	2	5%	1.2	34.7%	13.2%	21.5%	1.7%	4.00	2.73	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	34	155	48	13	5	4%	1.3	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.6%	5.82	4.48	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	34	155	48	13	5	4%	1.3	24.0%	11.1%	12.9%	3.6%	5.82	4.48	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	34	155	48	13	5	4%	1.3	31.0%	8.4%	22.6%	3.2%	5.82	3.34	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	53	207	51	19	4	0%	1.8	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	2.5%	2.91	4.15	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	53	207	51	19	4	0%	1.8	19.5%	10.3%	9.2%	2.5%	2.91	4.15	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	53	207	51	19	4	0%	1.8	24.6%	9.2%	15.5%	1.9%	2.91	3.23	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	40	198	42	31	9	0%	1.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	5.6%	9.15	6.95	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	40	198	42	31	9	0%	1.3	16.8%	17.5%	-0.7%	5.6%	9.15	6.95	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	40	198	42	31	9	0%	1.3	21.2%	15.7%	5.6%	4.5%	9.15	6.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TB	24	0	25	106	19	15	4	0%	1.0	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	3.4%	5.56	5.56	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TB	23	0	24	102	19	14	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.51	5.57	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	TB	8	0	8	34	6	5	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	13.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.51	5.57	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	6	4	1	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.51	5.19	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	106	26	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.8%	4.9%	3.5%	5.51	5.19	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		110	2	154	681	133	94	25	2%	1.4	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	3.7%	5.38	5.22	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	3	200	884	173	123	32	2%	1.4	19.6%	13.9%	5.7%	3.7%	5.38	5.22	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Lancaster (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	18.4%	14.0%	3.4%	—	5.57	18.6%	4.9%	24	+0.01	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	89
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	85
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	82
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	81
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	80
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	79
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	79
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	77
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	76
Justin Wright L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	26	SU	4.42	14.7%	13.7%	1.5%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.28	109	76
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	76
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	76
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	76
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	75
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	75
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	74
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	74
Matt Thornton L 2005 · 5.92 FIP	28	SU	5.92	21.8%	15.3%	5.0%	.270	2.98	24.4%	17.2%	178	-2.94	1.71	663	73
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	73
Sammy Solís L 2017 · 5.93 FIP	28	SU	5.93	20.9%	11.5%	5.7%	.250	4.27	25.4%	16.0%	62	-1.66	2.51	190	73