Alec Gamboa

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #678

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	AAAOklahoma City…	22	12	74	3.30	3.51	16.1%	9.8%	—	K 13.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.69
2025	28	AAALAD	8	2	19	4.19	3.72	14.5%	14.5%	—	K 12.4% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.70
2026	29	MIX2 levels	38	11	84	2.99	3.53	20.5%	7.0%	1.0	K 18.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	30	MLBBOS	59	0	62	4.31	4.48	16.2%	8.5%	0.1
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBBOS	33	0	35	4.54	4.70	16.2%	8.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBBOS	36	0	38	4.76	4.93	15.9%	9.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

FB Velo62

K%17

Whiff%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Kelvin Marte (age 29) · Kyle Hunter (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.31

FIP4.48

K%16.2%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p1016.4%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	12	7	25	96	33	2	0	58%	2.1	23.4%	2.6%	20.8%	0.0%	2.88	1.46	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	12	7	25	96	33	2	0	58%	2.1	34.4%	2.1%	32.3%	0.0%	2.88	0.70	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	22	11	77	329	71	30	9	50%	3.5	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	3.7%	4.21	5.04	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	22	11	77	329	71	30	9	50%	3.5	21.6%	9.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.21	3.94	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	30	6	88	395	72	47	11	20%	2.9	14.8%	13.1%	1.7%	3.4%	5.91	5.36	—
2022	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	30	6	88	395	72	47	11	20%	2.9	18.2%	11.9%	6.3%	2.8%	5.91	4.68	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	19.5%	14.4%	5.1%	1.7%	3.66	4.20	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	3	76	326	76	48	5	8%	2.1	23.3%	14.7%	8.6%	1.5%	3.66	3.85	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	13.9%	8.8%	5.1%	1.2%	3.30	3.69	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	13.9%	8.8%	5.1%	1.2%	3.30	3.69	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	22	12	74	316	51	31	3	55%	3.3	16.1%	9.8%	6.3%	0.9%	3.30	3.51	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	12.4%	13.0%	-0.6%	0.0%	4.19	3.70	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	12.4%	13.0%	-0.6%	0.0%	4.19	3.70	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	8	2	19	83	12	12	0	25%	2.4	14.5%	14.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.19	3.72	—
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	11	84	341	70	24	8	29%	2.2	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	2.6%	2.99	3.78	+0.8
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	11	84	341	70	24	8	29%	2.2	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	2.6%	2.99	3.78	+0.8
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	11	84	341	70	24	8	29%	2.2	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	2.3%	2.99	3.53	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			21	3	33	132	23	11	1	14%	1.6	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	0.8%	1.91	3.10	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BOS	59	0	62	262	42	22	6	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.5%	7.7%	2.4%	4.31	4.48	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BOS	55	0	58	245	40	22	6	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.54	4.70	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	BOS	51	0	54	227	36	21	7	0%	1.1	15.9%	9.4%	6.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.93	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	BOS	33	0	35	148	24	13	4	0%	1.1	16.2%	8.9%	7.2%	2.6%	4.54	4.70	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	BOS	36	0	38	160	26	15	5	0%	1.1	15.9%	9.4%	6.6%	2.9%	4.76	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	3	107	443	73	40	10	3%	1.2	16.5%	8.9%	7.5%	2.2%	3.81	4.04	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	6	200	831	137	75	19	3%	1.2	16.5%	8.9%	7.5%	2.2%	3.81	4.04	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		169	52	444	1886	317	197	43	31%	2.6	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	23	200	850	143	89	20	31%	2.6	16.8%	10.5%	6.3%	2.3%	3.99	4.27	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Gamboa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	—	4.81	16.1%	6.9%	112	+0.33	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	74
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	73
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	73
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	71
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	71
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	70
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	70
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	69
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	69
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	68
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	67
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	66
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	65
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	64
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	64
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	63
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	63
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	62
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	62
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	52	16.3%	8.8%	0.91	4.11
Ramon Troncoso ('13)	1.1	45	16.0%	8.5%	0.83	4.00
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Javy Guerra ('21)	1.5	50	18.5%	9.1%	0.86	3.98
Cesár Ramos ('16)	1.7	58	17.8%	9.3%	0.91	4.02
Bob Duliba ('59-'67, 1 WAR*)	1.3	51	15.2%*	8.8%*	1.09*	3.96*
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*