Shayne Fontana
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+/INTL4 orgs | 346 | .244/.379/.394 | 10 | 7 | 82 | — | .216/.319/.347 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 402 | .254/.365/.382 | 7 | 20 | 83 | — | .242/.327/.345 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAABAL | 245 | .225/.314/.315 | 4 | 11 | 59 | — | .213/.281/.281 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 71 | 63 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 254 | 338 | 429 | 767 | 175 | 333 | 21 | 8 | 340 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Orioles | — | 56 | 43 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 349 | 491 | 465 | 956 | 116 | 378 | 11 | 16 | 428 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 67 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 158 | 284 | 351 | 634 | 193 | 154 | 22 | 15 | 290 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 328 | 278 | 67 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 43 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 241 | 350 | 385 | 735 | 144 | 325 | 26 | 13 | 331 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 70 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 180 | 275 | 262 | 538 | 82 | 244 | 29 | 9 | 251 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 168 | 133 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 48 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 278 | 422 | 481 | 903 | 203 | 375 | 29 | 16 | 400 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 38 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 395 | 452 | 846 | 194 | 353 | 32 | 16 | 382 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | RA12 | — | 70 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 222 | 373 | 296 | 669 | 74 | 286 | 20 | 17 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 227 | 190 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 43 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 279 | 386 | 416 | 801 | 137 | 338 | 19 | 11 | 358 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 151 | 129 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 240 | 347 | 364 | 711 | 124 | 262 | 13 | 10 | 325 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 24 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 292 | 158 | 450 | 53 | 154 | 25 | 17 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 245 | 213 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 57 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 225 | 314 | 315 | 629 | 89 | 286 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 71 | 65 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 215 | 282 | 369 | 651 | 154 | 297 | 28 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 56 | 47 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 277 | 382 | 383 | 765 | 106 | 299 | 16 | 9 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 67 | 60 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 133 | 224 | 267 | 491 | 133 | 139 | 28 | 10 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 328 | 291 | 54 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 113 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 186 | 273 | 289 | 562 | 103 | 280 | 34 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 70 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 246 | 254 | 500 | 79 | 235 | 34 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 168 | 141 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 59 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 234 | 349 | 376 | 725 | 142 | 344 | 35 | 11 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 38 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 316 | 394 | 710 | 182 | 301 | 42 | 11 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 227 | 197 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 53 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 254 | 341 | 365 | 706 | 112 | 315 | 23 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 151 | 134 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 224 | 307 | 313 | 620 | 90 | 249 | 17 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 245 | 221 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 213 | 281 | 281 | 562 | 68 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 127 | 112 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 241 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 134 | 313 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 127 | 106 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 292 | 405 | 443 | 848 | 151 | 353 | 17 | 12 | 379 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 352 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 132 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 176 | 262 | 284 | 546 | 108 | 259 | 33 | 9 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 335 | 76 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 99 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 227 | 338 | 379 | 718 | 152 | 296 | 25 | 13 | 324 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 346 | 297 | 62 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 123 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 209 | 309 | 327 | 635 | 118 | 312 | 36 | 10 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 346 | 279 | 68 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 94 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 244 | 379 | 394 | 774 | 151 | 322 | 27 | 15 | 349 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 402 | 351 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 82 | 14 | 20 | 5 | 236 | 325 | 333 | 658 | 97 | 292 | 20 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 402 | 338 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 69 | 14 | 20 | 5 | 254 | 365 | 382 | 747 | 127 | 298 | 17 | 11 | 338 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 245 | 221 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 213 | 281 | 281 | 562 | 68 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 245 | 213 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 57 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 225 | 314 | 315 | 629 | 89 | 286 | 23 | 9 | 288 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 127 | 112 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 241 | 325 | 375 | 700 | 134 | 298 | 23 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 351 | 62 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 132 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 177 | 262 | 285 | 547 | 108 | 256 | 33 | 9 | 243 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 346 | 300 | 62 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 123 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 207 | 309 | 323 | 632 | 117 | 310 | 36 | 10 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 402 | 353 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 82 | 14 | 20 | 5 | 235 | 325 | 331 | 656 | 96 | 289 | 20 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 245 | 222 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 212 | 281 | 279 | 560 | 68 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 245 | 222 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 212 | 281 | 279 | 560 | 68 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1515 | 1333 | 281 | 43 | 11 | 24 | 127 | 430 | 38 | 53 | 23 | 211 | 298 | 314 | 611 | 103 | 288 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -53 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +33 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 120 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 184 | 16 | 23 | 10 | 210 | 296 | 311 | 607 | 101 | 286 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -23 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 245 PAwOBA .283 → .255 (−28)K% 23.3% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.27% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.36% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×1.033 | ×1.003 | 24.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.21% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×1.003 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×1.003 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.81% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .283 → .255; ISO .089 → .072; BABIP .286 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 227 PAwOBA .352 → .309 (−43)K% 18.9% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.45% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 24.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×1.018 | 1.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .352 → .309; ISO .137 → .115; BABIP .338 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 151 PAwOBA .319 → .273 (−46)K% 13.2% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.25% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.97% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.27% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×0.988 | 19.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | ×1.016 | ×0.988 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | ×1.016 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.75% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.76% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .319 → .273; ISO .124 → .091; BABIP .262 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABowie Baysox · 168 PAwOBA .395 → .318 (−77)K% 28.6% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.07% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.24% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 27.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.055 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.170 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .395 → .318; ISO .203 → .142; BABIP .375 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 70 PAwOBA .248 → .213 (−35)K% 28.6% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.51% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.130 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.970 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 126, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .248 → .213; ISO .082 → .064; BABIP .244 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 38 PAwOBA .372 → .276 (−97)K% 31.6% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 41.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.966 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 9.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷0.980 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 27.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.029 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 8.81% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 93, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .372 → .276; ISO .194 → .151; BABIP .353 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 328 PAwOBA .325 → .250 (−75)K% 25.6% → 34.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.61% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 34.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.11% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 9.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷1.026 | ×0.910 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 19.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.70% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 2.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 2.03% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .325 → .250; ISO .144 → .105; BABIP .325 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 67 PAwOBA .282 → .206 (−77)K% 22.4% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.39% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.93% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 9.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 9.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 4.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.48% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .282 → .206; ISO .193 → .129; BABIP .154 → .139. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .