Tyler Santana

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	32	1	73	5.20	4.45	19.6%	9.8%	—	K 14.8% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.69
2025	27	AACHC	35	1	64	4.06	3.38	18.2%	8.0%	—	K 14.7% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.02
2026	28	MIX2 levels	31	0	59	5.61	4.99	18.7%	10.3%	—	K 15.4% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	66	0	69	5.61	5.61	12.9%	10.7%	-0.8
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBCHC	19	0	20	5.59	5.66	13.6%	10.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBCHC	30	0	31	5.65	5.76	13.9%	11.0%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsWillie Eyre (age 29) · Grant Black (age 29) · Benjamin Sandoval (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%12.9%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	1	20	83	23	10	1	11%	2.2	20.3%	15.1%	5.1%	1.8%	1.35	4.28	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	1	20	83	23	10	1	11%	2.2	27.7%	12.0%	15.7%	1.2%	1.35	2.95	—
2022	24	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	8	99	398	93	31	3	33%	4.1	17.3%	9.2%	8.1%	1.0%	2.28	3.37	—
2022	24	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	24	8	99	398	93	31	3	33%	4.1	23.4%	7.8%	15.6%	0.8%	2.28	2.55	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	30	9	91	390	78	35	9	30%	3.0	15.4%	10.3%	5.1%	2.4%	4.07	4.43	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	30	9	91	390	78	35	9	30%	3.0	20.0%	9.0%	11.0%	2.3%	4.07	3.83	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	73	327	64	32	10	3%	2.3	14.8%	11.6%	3.2%	4.3%	5.20	5.69	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	73	327	64	32	10	3%	2.3	14.8%	11.6%	3.2%	4.3%	5.20	5.69	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	73	327	64	32	10	3%	2.3	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.1%	5.20	4.45	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	35	1	64	275	50	22	4	3%	1.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	1.9%	4.06	4.02	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	35	1	64	275	50	22	4	3%	1.8	14.7%	8.8%	5.9%	1.9%	4.06	4.02	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	35	1	64	275	50	22	4	3%	1.8	18.2%	8.0%	10.2%	1.5%	4.06	3.38	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	59	273	51	28	10	0%	1.9	15.4%	10.0%	5.4%	4.1%	5.61	5.30	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	59	273	51	28	10	0%	1.9	15.4%	10.0%	5.4%	4.1%	5.61	5.30	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	59	273	51	28	10	0%	1.9	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.7%	5.61	4.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	66	0	69	291	38	31	10	0%	1.0	12.9%	10.7%	2.2%	3.4%	5.61	5.61	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	61	0	64	272	37	29	10	0%	1.1	13.6%	10.8%	2.8%	3.6%	5.59	5.66	-0.8
2029	31	MLB MLE	CHC	57	0	60	254	35	28	10	0%	1.1	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	3.7%	5.65	5.76	-0.8
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	19	0	20	84	11	9	3	0%	1.1	13.6%	10.8%	2.8%	3.6%	5.59	5.66	-0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	CHC	30	0	31	131	18	14	5	0%	1.0	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	3.7%	5.65	5.76	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	216	30	24	8	0%	1.0	13.8%	10.9%	2.8%	3.7%	5.63	5.34	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	118	94	31	0%	1.1	13.8%	10.9%	2.8%	3.7%	5.63	5.34	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		161	20	406	1746	277	179	46	12%	2.5	15.8%	10.2%	5.6%	2.6%	3.93	4.49	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	10	200	861	136	88	22	12%	2.5	15.8%	10.2%	5.6%	2.6%	3.93	4.49	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Santana (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	12.9%	10.7%	3.4%	—	5.71	13.7%	2.8%	125	+0.10	—	—	—
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	85
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	82
Benjamin Sandoval R 2016 · 5.13 FIP	29	SU	5.13	6.7%	11.3%	2.1%	.292	5.51	9.0%	-4.4%	49	+0.38	4.66	146	79
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	79
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	79
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	78
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	76
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	75
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	75
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	75
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	75
Tony Fiore R 2000 · 5.61 FIP	28	SU	5.61	10.8%	9.5%	4.0%	.321	4.76	14.3%	3.5%	127	-0.85	4.60	142	74
Kyle McMyne R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	12.5%	12.8%	2.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	181	74
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	74
Jason Boyd R 2002 · 5.81 FIP	29	SU	5.81	13.7%	10.7%	4.6%	.290	4.74	15.0%	3.7%	65	-1.07	3.68	128	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	13.4%	10.8%	1.38	5.62
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*