Brock Bell — OGILVIE

Brock Bell P Dayton Dragons

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 227 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 36 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%20.5%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	8	8	13	51	11	4	0	100%	1.6	14.7%	9.8%	4.9%	0.0%	2.77	3.10	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	8	8	13	51	11	4	0	100%	1.6	21.6%	7.8%	13.7%	0.0%	2.77	2.33	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	56	226	50	14	4	0%	1.6	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	2.3%	3.38	3.87	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	56	226	50	14	4	0%	1.6	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	1.8%	3.38	2.99	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	35	0	52	237	44	11	9	0%	1.5	14.3%	5.3%	9.0%	3.7%	4.82	4.60	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	35	0	52	237	44	11	9	0%	1.5	14.3%	5.3%	9.0%	3.7%	4.82	4.60	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	35	0	52	237	44	11	9	0%	1.5	18.6%	4.6%	13.9%	3.8%	4.82	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	34	0	36	152	31	11	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.4%	13.0%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	32	0	34	142	29	11	5	0%	1.1	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	10	42	9	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	3	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.15	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	59	20	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		78	8	121	514	79	34	14	10%	1.6	15.4%	6.6%	8.9%	2.7%	3.93	4.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	13	200	847	131	56	23	10%	1.6	15.4%	6.6%	8.9%	2.7%	3.93	4.13	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brock Bell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	20.5%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.53	20.4%	12.5%	34	+0.18	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	90
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	87
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	84
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	82
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	78
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	78
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	78
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	78
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	20.4%	7.7%	1.21	4.40
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41