David Leal

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 30 LHP 6'5" / 250 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	AAOAK	36	8	84	5.44	4.27	18.3%	5.9%	—	K 14.8% · BB 6.5% · FIP 5.08
2024	27	AAOAK	28	2	63	3.57	2.99	19.6%	5.7%	—	K 15.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 3.60
2025	28	MIX2 levels	46	1	52	3.48	4.71	22.6%	11.9%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	30	MLBOAK	35	0	37	4.75	4.75	19.4%	9.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBOAK	12	0	13	4.82	4.90	19.4%	10.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAndrew Barbosa (age 29) · John Rheinecker (age 28) · Raul Valdes (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%19.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	42	155	52	4	0	6%	2.6	24.6%	2.7%	21.9%	0.0%	1.73	1.36	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	42	155	52	4	0	6%	2.6	33.5%	2.6%	31.0%	0.0%	1.73	0.89	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	69	285	78	6	11	78%	3.9	20.8%	2.4%	18.3%	4.8%	4.15	4.27	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	69	285	78	6	11	78%	3.9	27.4%	2.1%	25.3%	3.9%	4.15	3.17	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	137	573	104	17	14	84%	5.5	14.5%	3.3%	11.2%	3.6%	4.40	4.28	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	137	573	104	17	14	84%	5.5	18.2%	3.0%	15.2%	2.4%	4.40	3.28	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	36	8	84	372	68	22	13	22%	2.3	14.8%	6.5%	8.3%	4.4%	5.44	5.08	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	36	8	84	372	68	22	13	22%	2.3	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	3.5%	5.44	4.27	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	2	63	265	52	15	4	7%	2.2	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	1.9%	3.57	3.60	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	2	63	265	52	15	4	7%	2.2	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	1.9%	3.57	3.60	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	28	2	63	265	52	15	4	7%	2.2	19.6%	5.7%	14.0%	1.5%	3.57	2.99	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	52	226	51	27	8	2%	1.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	3.4%	3.48	4.78	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	52	226	51	27	8	2%	1.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	3.4%	3.48	4.78	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	52	226	51	27	8	2%	1.1	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	3.5%	3.48	4.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	OAK	35	0	37	156	30	15	5	0%	1.1	19.4%	9.7%	9.6%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	OAK	33	0	34	146	28	15	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	3.3%	4.82	4.90	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	OAK	12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	3.3%	4.82	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	10	5	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	3.3%	4.82	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	79	32	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.0%	9.3%	3.3%	4.82	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		169	47	447	1876	321	96	63	28%	2.6	17.1%	5.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.09	4.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	21	200	839	144	43	28	28%	2.6	17.1%	5.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.09	4.16	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Leal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	19.4%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.90	19.4%	9.3%	34	+0.15	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	77
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	75
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	75
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	74
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	72
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	71
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	71
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	70
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	70
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	69
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	67
Andy Otero L 2022 · 4.36 FIP	30	SW	4.36	14.5%	8.9%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	200	66
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	65
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	63
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	63
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	63
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	63
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	62
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	62
Miguel Pena L 2019 · 5.08 FIP	28	SW	5.08	16.0%	7.0%	4.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	282	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	19.4%	9.9%	1.22	4.78
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*