David Leal
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 29
LHP
6'5" / 250 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%20.0%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 1 | 42 | 155 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 6% | 2.6 | 24.6% | 2.7% | 21.9% | 0.0% | 1.73 | 1.36 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 1 | 42 | 155 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 6% | 2.6 | 33.5% | 2.6% | 31.0% | 0.0% | 1.73 | 0.89 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 69 | 285 | 78 | 6 | 11 | 78% | 3.9 | 20.8% | 2.4% | 18.3% | 4.7% | 4.15 | 4.24 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 69 | 285 | 78 | 6 | 11 | 78% | 3.9 | 27.4% | 2.1% | 25.3% | 3.9% | 4.15 | 3.17 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 137 | 573 | 104 | 17 | 14 | 84% | 5.5 | 14.5% | 3.3% | 11.2% | 4.8% | 4.40 | 4.92 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 21 | 137 | 573 | 104 | 17 | 14 | 84% | 5.5 | 18.2% | 3.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | 4.40 | 3.28 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 36 | 8 | 84 | 372 | 68 | 22 | 13 | 22% | 2.3 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 5.44 | 5.19 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 36 | 8 | 84 | 372 | 68 | 22 | 13 | 22% | 2.3 | 18.3% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 3.5% | 5.44 | 4.27 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 28 | 2 | 63 | 265 | 52 | 15 | 4 | 7% | 2.2 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 3.57 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 28 | 2 | 63 | 265 | 52 | 15 | 4 | 7% | 2.2 | 19.6% | 5.7% | 14.0% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 52 | 226 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 52 | 226 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 3.48 | 4.71 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 32 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.46 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 87 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 169 | 47 | 447 | 1876 | 321 | 99 | 70 | 28% | 2.6 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.38 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 76 | 21 | 200 | 839 | 144 | 44 | 31 | 28% | 2.6 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 4.09 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Leal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.84 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 38 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 79 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 353 | 77 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.87 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .300 | 5.18 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.31 | 3.50 | 360 | 76 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 277 | 75 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 74 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.73 | 13.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 200 | 74 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 74 |
| Kyle Hunter L 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.47 | 14.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 188 | 73 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.84 | 18.7% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 324 | 70 |
| David Huff L 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.63 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.00 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.37 | 3.63 | 158 | 70 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.01 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.33 | 3.47 | 512 | 70 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.56 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 203 | 69 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 69 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 69 |
| Chad Bell L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 18.8% | 7.4% | 3.6% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 393 | 69 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 69 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 68 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 68 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 39 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 1.20 | 4.73 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |