David Leal — OGILVIE

David Leal P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 29 LHP 6'5" / 250 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 125

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%17.9%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	1	42	155	52	4	0	6%	2.6	24.6%	2.7%	21.9%	0.0%	1.73	1.36	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	1	42	155	52	4	0	6%	2.6	33.5%	2.6%	31.0%	0.0%	1.73	0.89	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	69	285	78	6	11	78%	3.9	20.8%	2.4%	18.3%	4.8%	4.15	4.27	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	69	285	78	6	11	78%	3.9	27.4%	2.1%	25.3%	3.9%	4.15	3.17	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	137	573	104	17	14	84%	5.5	14.5%	3.3%	11.2%	3.6%	4.40	4.28	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	137	573	104	17	14	84%	5.5	18.2%	3.0%	15.2%	2.4%	4.40	3.28	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	36	8	84	372	68	22	13	22%	2.3	14.8%	6.5%	8.3%	4.4%	5.44	5.08	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	36	8	84	372	68	22	13	22%	2.3	14.8%	6.5%	8.3%	4.4%	5.44	5.08	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	36	8	84	372	68	22	13	22%	2.3	18.3%	5.9%	12.4%	3.5%	5.44	4.27	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	2	63	265	52	15	4	7%	2.2	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	1.9%	3.57	3.60	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	2	63	265	52	15	4	7%	2.2	15.9%	6.2%	9.7%	1.9%	3.57	3.60	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	28	2	63	265	52	15	4	7%	2.2	19.6%	5.7%	14.0%	1.5%	3.57	2.99	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	52	226	51	27	8	2%	1.1	18.6%	11.3%	7.3%	3.4%	3.48	4.82	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	52	226	51	27	8	2%	1.1	18.6%	11.3%	7.3%	3.4%	3.48	4.82	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	52	226	51	27	8	2%	1.1	22.6%	11.9%	10.6%	3.5%	3.48	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	OAK	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.0%	8.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	OAK	36	0	38	159	29	15	5	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.94	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	0	14	59	11	6	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	11	5	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	72	29	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.3%	8.8%	3.3%	4.87	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		169	47	447	1876	320	96	63	28%	2.6	17.0%	5.1%	11.9%	3.4%	4.09	4.17	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	21	200	839	143	43	28	28%	2.6	17.0%	5.1%	11.9%	3.4%	4.09	4.17	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Leal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	17.9%	9.0%	3.1%	—	4.94	18.1%	8.8%	38	+0.13	—	—	—
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	82
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	78
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	78
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	78
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	77
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	76
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	73
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	72
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	277	72
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	71
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	70
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	69
Chad Bell L 2018 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	18.8%	7.4%	3.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	393	69
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	69
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	69
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	68
Aaron Laffey L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	13.5%	9.7%	1.7%	.318	4.39	12.5%	5.2%	192	+0.27	3.51	282	68
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	68
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	68
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	18.0%	9.2%	1.23	4.84
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38