Keagan Gillies

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 29 RHP 6'8" / 255 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AABowie Baysox	42	47	4.94	3.50	26.1%	12.1%	—	K 21.1% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.02
2025	27	MIX2 levels	42	54	2.68	3.14	24.2%	6.2%	—	K 20.0% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.57
2026	28	MIX3 levels	30	34	4.54	3.01	28.3%	6.2%	—	K 20.0% · BB 4.7% · FIP 4.84
2027PROJ	29	MLBBAL	18	19	4.37	4.37	20.3%	7.0%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBBAL	6	6	4.47	4.54	20.2%	7.5%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 29) · Tyler Walker (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%20.3%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP19

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Black	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2021	23	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles Black	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	100%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	5	20	90	22	7	3	56%	2.3	17.2%	11.3%	5.9%	4.7%	4.87	5.68	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	5	20	90	22	7	3	56%	2.3	24.4%	7.8%	16.7%	3.3%	4.87	3.89	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	157	61	14	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	9.9%	20.8%	2.1%	2.43	2.93	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	41	157	61	14	3	0%	1.2	38.9%	8.9%	29.9%	1.9%	2.43	2.09	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	42	0	47	207	54	25	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	1.9%	4.94	4.02	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	42	0	47	207	54	25	4	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.3%	7.8%	1.9%	4.94	4.02	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	42	0	47	207	54	25	4	0%	1.1	26.1%	12.1%	14.0%	1.9%	4.94	3.50	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	54	211	51	13	5	0%	1.3	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	2.6%	2.68	3.57	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	54	211	51	13	5	0%	1.3	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	2.6%	2.68	3.57	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	54	211	51	13	5	0%	1.3	24.2%	6.2%	18.0%	2.4%	2.68	3.14	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	34	145	41	9	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	4.7%	15.3%	5.2%	4.54	4.84	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	34	145	41	9	4	0%	1.1	20.0%	4.7%	15.3%	5.2%	4.54	4.84	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	34	145	41	9	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	2.8%	4.54	3.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BAL	18	0	19	80	16	6	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.0%	13.3%	3.1%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BAL	19	0	20	84	17	6	3	0%	1.1	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.5%	12.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	64	32	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.5%	12.7%	3.3%	4.47	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		157	6	197	813	180	73	24	4%	1.3	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.01	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	6	200	827	183	74	25	4%	1.3	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	3.71	4.01	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keagan Gillies (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	20.3%	7.0%	3.1%	—	4.54	20.3%	12.7%	20	+0.17	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	93
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	80
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	80
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	79
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	79
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	79
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	79
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	78
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	78
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	77
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	77