Bryan Arias
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAHOU | 346 | .220/.335/.340 | 6 | 11 | 49 | — | .176/.262/.261 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA/ROKHOU | 126 | .243/.381/.388 | 3 | 7 | 64 | — | .193/.302/.294 |
| 2024 | 27 | ROKHOU | 27 | .115/.148/.115 | 0 | 0 | -63 | — | .077/.111/.077 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 58 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 191 | 333 | 319 | 652 | 128 | 259 | 31 | 16 | 302 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 64 | 59 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 297 | 542 | 839 | 305 | 265 | 31 | 6 | 363 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 80 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 200 | 300 | 357 | 657 | 157 | 244 | 28 | 11 | 300 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 346 | 291 | 64 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 98 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 220 | 335 | 340 | 675 | 120 | 305 | 28 | 12 | 310 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 86 | 70 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 243 | 384 | 414 | 798 | 171 | 286 | 21 | 16 | 364 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 40 | 33 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 375 | 333 | 708 | 91 | 320 | 20 | 12 | 333 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 27 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 148 | 115 | 264 | 176 | 33 | 4 | 126 | -63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 58 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 140 | 246 | 200 | 446 | 60 | 241 | 40 | 10 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 64 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 350 | 569 | 183 | 218 | 42 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 80 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 151 | 225 | 247 | 472 | 96 | 223 | 38 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 346 | 307 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 126 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 176 | 262 | 261 | 523 | 85 | 273 | 36 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 86 | 74 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 203 | 314 | 324 | 638 | 122 | 255 | 24 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 40 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 275 | 229 | 504 | 57 | 239 | 28 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 27 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 111 | 77 | 188 | 138 | 48 | 4 | 75 | -63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 202 | 183 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 80 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 153 | 229 | 268 | 497 | 115 | 227 | 40 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 202 | 176 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 60 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 210 | 308 | 409 | 718 | 199 | 255 | 30 | 11 | 320 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 346 | 307 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 126 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 176 | 262 | 261 | 523 | 85 | 278 | 36 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 346 | 291 | 64 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 98 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 220 | 335 | 340 | 675 | 120 | 305 | 28 | 12 | 310 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 110 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 191 | 294 | 291 | 585 | 100 | 250 | 25 | 10 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 126 | 103 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 243 | 381 | 388 | 769 | 146 | 297 | 21 | 15 | 354 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 27 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 111 | 77 | 188 | 154 | 48 | 4 | 75 | -63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 27 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 148 | 115 | 264 | 176 | 33 | 4 | 126 | -63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 202 | 182 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 80 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 154 | 229 | 269 | 498 | 115 | 227 | 40 | 7 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 346 | 307 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 28 | 126 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 176 | 262 | 261 | 523 | 85 | 273 | 36 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 109 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 193 | 294 | 294 | 587 | 101 | 250 | 25 | 10 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 27 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 111 | 77 | 188 | 138 | 48 | 4 | 75 | -63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 27 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 111 | 77 | 188 | 138 | 48 | 4 | 75 | -63 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 701 | 626 | 105 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 56 | 251 | 15 | 26 | 4 | 168 | 253 | 260 | 513 | 93 | 254 | 36 | 8 | 234 | 44 | -46 | +4 | +0 | +3 | +15 | -2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 233 | 14 | 24 | 4 | 167 | 252 | 259 | 511 | 91 | 254 | 36 | 8 | 234 | 44 | -43 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 ROKFCL Astros · 27 PAwOBA .123 → .075 (−48)K% 33.3% → 47.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.006 | ×1.440 | — | — | 47.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.033 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 2.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.984 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 13.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 100, 3B 87, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .123 → .075; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .176 → .138. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 86 PAwOBA .355 → .281 (−74)K% 20.9% → 24.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.93% | ÷1.049 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.28% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 11.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.988 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×1.033 | ×0.988 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.940 | ×1.033 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.322 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.45% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .355 → .281; ISO .171 → .118; BABIP .286 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Astros · 40 PAwOBA .326 → .224 (−101)K% 20.0% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.058 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 15.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 8.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.379 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .224; ISO .091 → .065; BABIP .320 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 346 PAwOBA .305 → .240 (−66)K% 28.3% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.32% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.43% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.24% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 19.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.81% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 7.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×1.015 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.11% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .305 → .240; ISO .120 → .094; BABIP .305 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 80 PAwOBA .292 → .213 (−79)K% 27.5% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.50% | ÷0.997 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 17.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.066 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.176 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 4.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 117, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .292 → .213; ISO .157 → .097; BABIP .244 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Asheville Tourists · 64 PAwOBA .352 → .237 (−115)K% 31.2% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.995 | ×1.350 | — | — | 42.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.983 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 14.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.111 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.82% | ÷1.131 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 9.30% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 122, 3B 82, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .352 → .237; ISO .305 → .190; BABIP .265 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 58 PAwOBA .295 → .232 (−63)K% 31.0% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.03% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.52% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 10.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.012 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.074 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 5.07% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .295 → .232; ISO .128 → .090; BABIP .259 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).