Daniel Mateo
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A+/A2 orgs | 443 | .272/.322/.412 | 12 | 43 | 60 | — | .221/.260/.334 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+TEX | 452 | .259/.279/.406 | 10 | 30 | 44 | — | .208/.222/.327 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+TEX | 257 | .179/.246/.268 | 5 | 13 | 10 | — | .146/.196/.212 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 162 | 143 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 294 | 365 | 378 | 742 | 84 | 356 | 17 | 8 | 331 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 146 | 136 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 272 | 317 | 368 | 685 | 96 | 372 | 28 | 6 | 307 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 55 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 327 | 403 | 545 | 949 | 218 | 370 | 14 | 10 | 407 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 36 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 333 | 406 | 740 | 156 | 389 | 36 | 8 | 332 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 407 | 376 | 103 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 99 | 5 | 42 | 12 | 274 | 321 | 412 | 733 | 138 | 339 | 24 | 5 | 323 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 452 | 433 | 112 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 102 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 259 | 279 | 406 | 685 | 148 | 312 | 23 | 2 | 297 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 208 | 193 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 51 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 161 | 221 | 259 | 480 | 98 | 190 | 25 | 6 | 221 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 49 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 262 | 354 | 310 | 664 | 48 | 423 | 35 | 10 | 305 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 162 | 147 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 184 | 245 | 231 | 477 | 48 | 226 | 21 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 146 | 139 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 216 | 248 | 273 | 522 | 58 | 347 | 38 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 63 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 241 | 290 | 397 | 687 | 155 | 285 | 21 | 5 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 36 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 182 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 152 | 332 | 47 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 407 | 383 | 86 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 133 | 5 | 42 | 12 | 225 | 261 | 334 | 595 | 110 | 305 | 33 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 452 | 437 | 91 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 137 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 208 | 222 | 327 | 550 | 119 | 268 | 30 | 1 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 208 | 197 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 137 | 183 | 213 | 396 | 76 | 174 | 30 | 4 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 49 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 250 | 205 | 455 | 23 | 352 | 47 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 162 | 147 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 184 | 245 | 231 | 477 | 48 | 233 | 21 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 162 | 143 | 42 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 294 | 365 | 378 | 742 | 84 | 356 | 17 | 8 | 331 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 196 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 230 | 271 | 321 | 592 | 92 | 336 | 33 | 5 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 209 | 191 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 288 | 343 | 419 | 762 | 131 | 371 | 24 | 7 | 337 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 416 | 92 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 150 | 6 | 43 | 13 | 221 | 260 | 329 | 590 | 108 | 314 | 34 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 443 | 408 | 111 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 112 | 6 | 43 | 13 | 272 | 322 | 412 | 734 | 140 | 343 | 25 | 5 | 324 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 452 | 437 | 91 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 137 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 208 | 222 | 327 | 550 | 119 | 276 | 30 | 1 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 452 | 433 | 112 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 102 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 259 | 279 | 406 | 685 | 148 | 312 | 23 | 2 | 297 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 241 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 84 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 149 | 199 | 220 | 419 | 71 | 208 | 33 | 5 | 182 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 257 | 235 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 68 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 179 | 246 | 268 | 514 | 89 | 227 | 26 | 7 | 237 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 162 | 149 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 181 | 245 | 228 | 473 | 47 | 226 | 21 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 196 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 68 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 230 | 271 | 321 | 592 | 92 | 328 | 33 | 5 | 256 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 443 | 418 | 92 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 150 | 6 | 43 | 13 | 220 | 260 | 328 | 588 | 108 | 307 | 34 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 452 | 441 | 91 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 137 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 206 | 222 | 324 | 547 | 118 | 268 | 30 | 1 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 240 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 84 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 150 | 199 | 221 | 420 | 71 | 208 | 33 | 5 | 182 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 257 | 240 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 84 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 150 | 199 | 221 | 420 | 71 | 208 | 33 | 5 | 182 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1523 | 1437 | 291 | 36 | 14 | 25 | 52 | 473 | 16 | 119 | 43 | 203 | 239 | 299 | 538 | 97 | 278 | 31 | 3 | 232 | 43 | -103 | +7 | +0 | +5 | +33 | -5.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 613 | 124 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 202 | 7 | 51 | 18 | 202 | 238 | 300 | 538 | 98 | 278 | 31 | 3 | 232 | 43 | -44 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 208 PAwOBA .215 → .174 (−41)K% 24.5% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.52% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.49% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .215 → .174; ISO .098 → .073; BABIP .190 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hickory Crawdads · 49 PAwOBA .304 → .218 (−86)K% 34.7% → 46.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.69% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 45.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.019 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 30.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .304 → .218; ISO .048 → .034; BABIP .423 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 452 PAwOBA .292 → .233 (−59)K% 22.6% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.57% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 1.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.83% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.034 | ×1.012 | 2.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.02% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.84% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .292 → .233; ISO .148 → .119; BABIP .312 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 407 PAwOBA .318 → .258 (−60)K% 24.3% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.16% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.16% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 25.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.25% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.54% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .318 → .258; ISO .138 → .110; BABIP .339 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 36 PAwOBA .323 → .233 (−91)K% 36.1% → 47.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.11% | ÷1.007 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 27.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 4.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.123 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 4.23% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .323 → .233; ISO .156 → .113; BABIP .389 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 146 PAwOBA .301 → .241 (−59)K% 28.1% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.08% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.16% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.47% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.026 | ×1.030 | 28.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.37% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.030 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.996 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 114, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .301 → .241; ISO .096 → .073; BABIP .372 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Rangers · 63 PAwOBA .403 → .292 (−111)K% 14.3% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.064 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.015 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.66% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 113, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .403 → .292; ISO .218 → .153; BABIP .370 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Rangers 1 · 162 PAwOBA .329 → .214 (−115)K% 17.3% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 18.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .214; ISO .084 → .049; BABIP .356 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).