Daniel Mateo — OGILVIE

Daniel MateoCF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 165 lbs AA K +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .235 / .304

PA209

HR4

SB7

K%31

BB%4

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

31→31

PWR

40→40

SPD

57→57

EYE

37→37

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.5peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-9M		$-29M	-$20M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$20M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	162	148	31	4	2	0	8	40	3	14	5	.209	.264	.264	.528	.054	.279	25	5	.233	37	-12	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
2021	20	A	2 teams	209	197	44	7	2	2	9	68	1	19	8	.223	.261	.310	.571	.086	.326	33	4	.251	50	-12	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.5
2022	21	A	2 teams	443	417	91	7	4	10	15	156	6	43	13	.218	.256	.326	.582	.108	.316	35	3	.251	50	-25	+3	+0	+2	+13	-0.8
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	452	437	90	12	6	9	5	136	3	30	13	.206	.220	.323	.543	.117	.272	30	1	.229	33	-34	+1	+0	+2	+13	-1.9
2024	23	AA	2 teams	257	241	35	5	0	4	12	88	3	13	4	.145	.195	.216	.411	.071	.207	34	5	.180	-4	-30	+1	+0	+1	+7	-2.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	TEX	209	197	38	6	1	4	8	65	2	7	2	.193	.232	.294	.526	.102	.271	31	4	.242	43	-13	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	TEX	256	240	49	8	2	5	12	78	2	8	3	.204	.248	.317	.565	.112	.274	30	5	.252	51	-14	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.6
2028	27	MLB 26%	TEX	310	288	60	10	2	7	16	92	3	9	3	.208	.257	.330	.587	.122	.275	30	5	.257	55	-16	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.5
2029	28	MLB 38%	TEX	346	322	66	11	2	7	18	103	3	10	3	.205	.254	.317	.570	.112	.276	30	5	.260	57	-17	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.6
2030	29	MLB 47%	TEX	361	336	70	12	2	8	19	107	3	9	3	.208	.257	.327	.584	.119	.276	30	5	.259	57	-18	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.7
2031	30	MLB 56%	TEX	371	345	71	12	2	8	20	112	3	9	3	.206	.255	.322	.577	.116	.274	30	5	.256	54	-19	+1	-2	+1	+11	-0.9
2032	31	MLB 73%	TEX	364	338	67	11	2	7	20	111	3	7	2	.198	.249	.305	.554	.107	.273	30	5	.252	51	-20	+1	-3	+1	+10	-1.1
2033	32	MLB 91%	TEX	350	325	65	11	2	7	19	109	3	6	2	.200	.251	.311	.561	.111	.271	31	5	.248	48	-21	+0	-4	+1	+10	-1.3
2034	33	MLB	TEX	324	302	59	10	2	6	17	103	2	4	1	.195	.243	.301	.544	.106	.269	32	5	.242	44	-21	+0	-4	+1	+9	-1.4
2035	34	MLB	TEX	282	263	51	8	2	5	15	92	2	3	1	.194	.243	.297	.539	.103	.268	33	5	.236	39	-19	+0	-5	+1	+8	-1.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4696	4396	887	134	33	89	213	1460	42	191	66	.202	.246	.308	.554	.106	.277	31	5	.244	45	-291	+12	-20	+17	+133	-15.2
/ 162G	—			650	608	123	19	5	12	29	202	6	26	9	.202	.246	.309	.555	.107	.278	31	4	.244	45	-40	+2	-3	+2	+18	-2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	162	143	42	6	3	0	13	28	3	14	5	.294	.365	.378	.742	.084	.356	17	8	.331	112	+2	+1	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	146	136	37	7	0	2	9	41	0	11	4	.272	.317	.368	.685	.096	.372	28	6	.307	93	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	63	55	18	3	3	1	6	9	1	8	4	.327	.403	.545	.949	.218	.370	14	10	.407	170	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	36	32	8	0	1	1	3	13	1	1	1	.250	.333	.406	.740	.156	.389	36	8	.332	112	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	407	376	103	9	5	11	21	99	5	42	12	.274	.321	.412	.733	.138	.339	24	5	.323	105	+2	+4	—	—	+12	1.8
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	452	433	112	16	9	10	9	102	3	30	13	.259	.279	.406	.685	.148	.312	23	2	.297	85	-8	+1	—	—	+13	0.6
2024	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	208	193	31	4	0	5	13	51	2	10	3	.161	.221	.259	.480	.098	.190	25	6	.221	27	-17	+1	—	—	+6	-1.1
2024	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	49	42	11	2	0	0	5	17	1	3	1	.262	.354	.310	.664	.048	.423	35	10	.305	91	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Mateo (OGILVIE)	25	31	40	57	37	.197/.235/.304	.106	.271	4	7	31%	4%	43	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕T.J. Steele 2012 · AA	25	40→32	43→45	53→50	33	.204/.231/.318	.115	.283	10	17	32%	3%	45	-2.1	.197/.234/.302	.105	.282	10	15	33%	4%	42	-2.3	.172/.210/.253	.081	.252	7	13	34%	4%	15	-1.2
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	34→29	46→45	49→50	44	.182/.254/.300	.117	.244	15	18	31%	8%	52	-1.6	.203/.279/.317	.114	.274	13	12	29%	9%	66	-0.6	.204/.281/.310	.106	.271	11	8	28%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	41	40→45	53→55	40	.196/.256/.291	.095	.278	6	15	30%	6%	50	-1.8	.190/.266/.302	.112	.286	11	16	35%	8%	57	-1.2	.176/.260/.302	.126	.275	14	16	39%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Michael O'Neill 2017 · AA	25	41→40	40→45	50→55	36	.201/.247/.291	.090	.288	8	17	32%	5%	45	-2.1	.208/.257/.314	.106	.307	10	20	34%	5%	56	-1.3	.205/.256/.307	.102	.305	11	23	35%	5%	50	-1.3
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	39→29	40→45	50→55	38	.192/.256/.284	.092	.277	8	12	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.179/.255/.283	.104	.283	9	15	37%	8%	47	-1.9	.181/.273/.314	.132	.266	14	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	40→30	46→45	50	37	.202/.259/.333	.131	.288	14	12	34%	6%	62	-0.9	.210/.268/.306	.096	.313	9	17	34%	6%	58	-1.2	.216/.274/.290	.074	.331	7	24	35%	6%	53	-1.0
✕Sergio Garcia 2016 · AAA	25	43	41→45	49→60	34	.212/.239/.306	.094	.290	9	21	30%	3%	44	-2.1	.226/.256/.341	.115	.299	12	17	28%	3%	61	-1.0	.233/.262/.352	.119	.305	12	19	27%	3%	64	-0.3
✕Max Burt 2023 · AAA	26	39	46→45	54→55	36	.202/.252/.327	.125	.285	14	17	34%	5%	57	-1.2	.190/.247/.303	.113	.282	13	22	36%	6%	49	-1.8	.172/.233/.265	.093	.260	10	26	36%	6%	31	-1.4
✕Bradlee Beesley 2023 · AA	25	40	45→50	54→60	37	.202/.257/.328	.126	.297	13	21	35%	6%	59	-1.1	.205/.281/.332	.127	.308	11	27	35%	7%	71	-0.3	.190/.283/.327	.137	.290	12	39	35%	8%	66	-0.3
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	38→37	42→45	54→55	42	.186/.272/.288	.102	.271	9	21	33%	8%	57	-1.2	.192/.280/.320	.128	.332	14	15	43%	8%	69	-0.4	.147/.256/.292	.145	.254	19	20	46%	10%	50	-0.7
✕Brandon Hicks 2011 · AAA	25	37→40	46→50	51→50	38	.193/.251/.319	.126	.276	14	14	35%	6%	55	-1.4	.200/.261/.341	.141	.304	17	11	38%	7%	65	-0.7	.192/.258/.339	.147	.301	18	10	40%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Willie MacIver 2022 · AA	25	36→35	45	51→55	38	.187/.245/.306	.118	.262	14	14	33%	6%	50	-1.8	.203/.276/.332	.129	.299	15	15	35%	8%	69	-0.4	.230/.309/.359	.129	.323	13	18	30%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→33	44→45	48→45	42	.196/.263/.315	.118	.271	12	9	31%	7%	59	-1.1	.204/.262/.318	.114	.295	12	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.195/.242/.316	.121	.282	13	0	35%	5%	50	-0.5
✕Andrew Cain 2015 · A	25	40→35	46→50	56→50	38	.204/.252/.333	.129	.276	13	14	31%	5%	58	-1.2	.187/.241/.313	.126	.300	14	10	40%	6%	49	-1.8	.151/.208/.274	.123	.243	15	8	43%	6%	23	-2.3
✕Mike Jarvis 2023 · AAA	25	38	45	58→60	39	.194/.254/.317	.123	.257	12	22	29%	5%	56	-1.3	.180/.234/.287	.107	.241	11	27	30%	5%	39	-2.5	.158/.210/.248	.091	.214	10	34	31%	5%	17	-1.9
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	39→42	42→45	47→50	39	.194/.249/.297	.104	.281	10	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	.200/.254/.303	.103	.309	9	13	36%	6%	51	-1.7	.206/.258/.305	.100	.300	8	9	32%	6%	50	-1.1
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	38→36	41→40	48→50	40	.191/.255/.290	.099	.266	9	14	31%	6%	49	-1.8	.203/.269/.317	.114	.286	10	15	31%	6%	62	-0.9	.179/.252/.313	.134	.265	12	20	35%	6%	50	-0.4
✕Andrés Alvarez 2022 · A	25	44→31	42→45	51→50	42	.214/.274/.320	.106	.298	10	14	30%	7%	64	-0.8	.198/.268/.326	.128	.287	15	15	34%	8%	64	-0.8	.185/.257/.304	.120	.263	14	13	34%	8%	51	-1.0
✕Jayson Langfels 2014 · AA	25	42→32	43→40	46→50	37	.201/.264/.310	.109	.312	11	11	37%	6%	58	-1.2	.206/.279/.294	.088	.335	7	14	38%	7%	60	-1.0	.202/.285/.272	.070	.341	4	17	38%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Jack López 2018 · AAA	25	40→44	39→45	48→55	36	.201/.238/.278	.077	.267	8	15	28%	4%	37	-2.6	.211/.244/.305	.094	.292	10	15	30%	3%	46	-2.0	.218/.255/.317	.099	.298	11	18	30%	3%	52	-1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)