Daniel Mateo — OGILVIE

Daniel MateoCF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 165 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 209 proj PA

wRC+†33

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .223 / .287

PA209

HR3

SB7

K%30

BB%3

ISO97

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE36

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	—	162	148	31	4	2	0	8	40	3	14	5	209	264	264	528	54	279	25	5	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	—	162	143	42	6	3	0	13	28	3	14	5	294	365	378	742	84	356	17	8	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	2 teams	—	209	197	43	7	2	2	9	67	1	19	8	218	256	305	561	86	315	32	4	250	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A	2 teams	—	209	191	55	10	3	3	15	50	1	19	8	288	343	419	762	131	371	24	7	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	443	417	94	7	4	12	15	154	6	43	13	225	263	348	610	122	320	35	3	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	443	408	111	9	6	12	24	112	6	43	13	272	322	412	734	140	343	25	5	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	452	436	88	13	6	8	6	144	3	30	13	202	218	314	532	112	276	32	1	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	452	433	112	16	9	10	9	102	3	30	13	259	279	406	685	148	312	23	2	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	257	241	35	5	0	4	12	88	3	13	4	145	195	216	411	71	207	34	5	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	2 teams	—	257	235	42	6	0	5	18	68	3	13	4	179	246	268	514	89	227	26	7	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	TEX	—	209	198	38	7	1	3	7	63	2	7	2	192	227	283	510	91	259	30	3	229	33	-16	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	TEX	31%	256	242	47	8	1	5	10	76	2	8	3	194	232	298	530	103	263	30	4	240	42	-17	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
2028	27	MLB	TEX	42%	310	291	58	10	2	6	13	90	3	9	3	199	241	309	550	110	265	29	4	247	47	-19	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.8
2027	26	MLB	TEX	31%	79	75	14	3	0	1	3	23	1	2	1	187	228	267	495	80	264	29	4	236	38	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.3
2028	27	MLB	TEX	42%	130	122	25	4	1	3	6	38	1	4	1	205	248	328	576	123	267	29	5	242	43	-8	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	209	197	39	7	1	4	9	61	2	6	2	198	240	305	545	107	263	29	4	239	41	-14	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	613	121	22	3	12	28	190	6	19	6	197	240	302	541	104	263	29	4	239	41	-43	+1	+0	+2	+18	-2.1
Career	—			—	2298	2170	434	61	18	40	80	722	23	143	51	200	236	300	536	100	276	31	3	235	38	-161	+8	+0	+8	+65	-8.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	614	122	17	5	11	23	204	7	40	14	199	236	296	533	98	274	31	4	235	38	-45	+2	+0	+2	+18	-2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	DSL Rangers 1	—	162	143	42	6	3	0	13	28	3	14	5	294	365	378	742	84	356	17	8	331	112	+2	+1	—	—	+5	0.8
2021	20	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	136	37	7	0	2	9	41	0	11	4	272	317	368	685	96	372	28	6	307	93	-1	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	20	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	63	55	18	3	3	1	6	9	1	8	4	327	403	545	949	218	370	14	10	407	170	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	21	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	36	32	8	0	1	1	3	13	1	1	1	250	333	406	740	156	389	36	8	332	112	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	21	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	407	376	103	9	5	11	21	99	5	42	12	274	321	412	733	138	339	24	5	323	105	+2	+4	—	—	+12	1.8
2023	22	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	452	433	112	16	9	10	9	102	3	30	13	259	279	406	685	148	312	23	2	297	85	-8	+1	—	—	+13	0.6
2024	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	208	193	31	4	0	5	13	51	2	10	3	161	221	259	480	98	190	25	6	221	27	-17	+1	—	—	+6	-1.1
2024	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	49	42	11	2	0	0	5	17	1	3	1	262	354	310	664	48	423	35	10	305	91	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	214	4	6	200	237	309	+1	+2	-0.6	-0.3
	/162	664	13	20	200	237	309	+2.4	+7.8	-1.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Daniel Mateo (OGILVIE)	25	32	40	57	36	190/223/287	97	259	3	7	30%	3%	33	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕T.J. Steele 2012 · AA	25	39→33	43→45	54→50	32	200/225/315	116	275	10	17	32%	3%	41	-2.3	201/239/311	110	284	10	15	32%	4%	46	-2.0	178/212/265	87	257	7	13	33%	3%	20	-1.1
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	37→34	41→40	48→50	40	186/251/287	100	259	9	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	205/270/324	119	291	11	14	32%	7%	64	-0.8	182/254/327	145	270	14	20	36%	6%	54	-0.3
✕Mike Jarvis 2023 · AAA	25	37	43→40	58→60	39	188/248/302	114	254	11	23	30%	5%	50	-1.8	174/228/273	99	241	10	27	31%	5%	33	-2.9	150/204/236	86	210	9	34	32%	5%	11	-2.0
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	38→33	43→45	48→45	41	191/257/300	109	268	10	9	32%	7%	53	-1.5	202/261/308	106	298	10	7	33%	7%	56	-1.3	189/237/299	111	279	11	0	35%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Jose Vinicio 2018 · AAA	25	45→30	39→40	50→55	34	217/238/299	82	292	6	13	28%	3%	41	-2.3	209/236/299	90	300	8	14	32%	3%	41	-2.3	197/215/270	74	287	6	16	33%	2%	22	-1.9
✕Gunnar Heidt 2018 · AA	25	37→39	42→45	47→50	38	186/242/289	103	277	10	12	35%	6%	43	-2.2	197/252/301	104	308	9	13	37%	6%	50	-1.8	206/260/308	103	297	8	9	32%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	38	39→50	53→55	39	187/246/274	87	273	6	16	32%	6%	40	-2.4	190/267/311	121	291	12	16	36%	8%	60	-1.0	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	39→36	40→45	54→55	41	187/268/274	87	283	7	20	34%	7%	51	-1.7	193/279/325	132	326	15	15	42%	8%	69	-0.4	148/255/300	152	246	20	20	45%	10%	51	-0.7
✕Branden Fryman 2023 · AAA	25	37	39→30	50	37	184/227/263	79	255	7	15	30%	5%	29	-3.2	202/240/304	102	292	9	11	33%	4%	45	-2.1	190/214/293	103	271	9	9	33%	2%	27	-1.1
✕Ryan Metzler 2019 · AAA	26	39	40	50	38	192/244/277	85	285	8	15	34%	6%	40	-2.4	202/255/293	91	305	9	12	34%	6%	49	-1.8	138/193/172	34	236	3	8	41%	6%	-10	-1.1
✕Michael Sandle 2023 · A	24	41→38	42→40	57→50	38	199/258/303	104	289	9	16	33%	6%	53	-1.5	186/244/283	97	282	9	14	36%	6%	42	-2.3	148/206/233	85	224	10	16	37%	5%	11	-3.0
✕Mylz Jones 2019 · AA	25	43→46	39→40	49→55	35	212/237/294	83	283	7	17	28%	3%	40	-2.4	194/232/289	95	260	9	16	28%	4%	37	-2.6	167/209/256	89	215	9	21	27%	4%	17	-2.5
✕Trey Martin 2018 · AA	25	40→39	39→40	48→55	33	194/231/273	79	289	7	14	34%	4%	33	-2.9	199/248/301	102	320	10	15	38%	6%	48	-1.9	176/229/274	98	293	10	19	41%	6%	34	-2.0
✕Isaac Galloway 2015 · AA	25	38→43	40→45	52→55	31	189/217/284	95	287	7	16	36%	3%	29	-3.2	209/244/312	103	287	10	21	30%	4%	49	-1.8	216/268/352	136	277	15	30	27%	5%	66	-0.4
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	39→35	40	54→55	39	192/243/281	89	271	8	17	31%	6%	40	-2.4	229/282/370	141	281	18	11	25%	6%	81	+0.4	236/283/396	160	253	27	6	20%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Dylan Rosa 2021 · AA	25	38→28	44→45	50→45	36	191/246/302	112	288	12	9	37%	6%	48	-1.9	191/247/329	138	340	16	8	46%	6%	56	-1.3	157/215/303	146	287	19	6	50%	5%	33	-1.0
✕Casio Grider 2013 · A	25	41→40	38→40	56→55	37	195/251/284	89	291	4	18	33%	5%	45	-2.1	201/258/286	85	307	6	23	34%	6%	49	-1.8	192/251/270	78	296	5	30	35%	5%	38	-1.3
✕José Briceño 2018 · AA	25	35	43→45	47→45	39	180/213/279	99	219	11	7	24%	4%	27	-3.3	207/248/349	142	253	19	9	27%	5%	61	-1.0	197/236/347	150	235	22	4	27%	4%	54	-0.4
✕Justin Miller 2014 · A	25	39→36	42→45	51→50	38	195/245/299	104	268	9	12	30%	5%	46	-2.0	197/250/298	101	287	9	10	33%	6%	48	-1.9	161/216/246	85	242	7	5	35%	6%	18	-1.4