TJ Hopkins
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/AACIN | 528 | .259/.337/.458 | 21 | 8 | 71 | — | .210/.270/.355 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAACIN | 393 | .308/.413/.514 | 16 | 2 | 114 | — | .273/.351/.422 | |
| 2023 | 26 | MLBCIN | 44 | .171/.227/.171 | 0 | 1 | 15 | -0.9 | ||
| 2024 | 27 | AADET | 95 | .190/.326/.329 | 2 | 2 | 49 | — | .165/.253/.282 | |
| 2025 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 292 | 257 | 69 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 71 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 268 | 345 | 436 | 781 | 167 | 348 | 24 | 9 | 341 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 103 | 94 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 255 | 320 | 436 | 757 | 181 | 328 | 28 | 8 | 336 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 373 | 97 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 40 | 117 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 260 | 341 | 464 | 805 | 204 | 327 | 28 | 9 | 352 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 44 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 227 | 171 | 398 | 292 | 39 | 5 | 192 | 15 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 393 | 331 | 102 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 94 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 308 | 413 | 514 | 926 | 205 | 386 | 24 | 14 | 407 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 95 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 326 | 329 | 655 | 139 | 245 | 25 | 17 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 44 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 227 | 171 | 398 | 292 | 39 | 5 | 192 | 16 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 | |||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 292 | 264 | 64 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 83 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 242 | 303 | 383 | 686 | 140 | 324 | 28 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 103 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 198 | 252 | 302 | 555 | 104 | 297 | 35 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 425 | 386 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 142 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 212 | 274 | 368 | 642 | 155 | 281 | 33 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 44 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 227 | 171 | 398 | 292 | 39 | 5 | 191 | 15 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 | |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 393 | 348 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 112 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 273 | 351 | 422 | 774 | 149 | 365 | 28 | 10 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 95 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 165 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 118 | 230 | 31 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 292 | 264 | 64 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 83 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 242 | 303 | 383 | 686 | 140 | 333 | 28 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 292 | 257 | 69 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 71 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 268 | 345 | 436 | 781 | 167 | 348 | 24 | 9 | 341 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 483 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 178 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 211 | 270 | 362 | 632 | 151 | 292 | 34 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 467 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 21 | 48 | 146 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 259 | 337 | 458 | 795 | 199 | 327 | 28 | 9 | 349 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 389 | 102 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 129 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 262 | 339 | 396 | 735 | 134 | 363 | 30 | 9 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 437 | 372 | 109 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 57 | 111 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 293 | 394 | 476 | 870 | 183 | 377 | 25 | 13 | 385 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 95 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 165 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 118 | 222 | 31 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 95 | 79 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 326 | 329 | 655 | 139 | 245 | 25 | 17 | 305 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 292 | 267 | 64 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 83 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 240 | 303 | 378 | 681 | 139 | 324 | 28 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 484 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 178 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 211 | 270 | 362 | 632 | 151 | 284 | 34 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 389 | 102 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 129 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 262 | 339 | 396 | 735 | 134 | 358 | 30 | 9 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 95 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 165 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 118 | 230 | 31 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 95 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 165 | 253 | 282 | 535 | 118 | 230 | 31 | 11 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 227 | 171 | 398 | 292 | 39 | 5 | 192 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 | ||
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 251 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 170 | 228 | 170 | 398 | 290 | 39 | 5 | 192 | 84 | -65 | +3 | -9 | -69 | +14 | -12.9 | ||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1352 | 1221 | 282 | 53 | 10 | 33 | 101 | 419 | 16 | 16 | 9 | 231 | 298 | 372 | 670 | 141 | 319 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 135 | 25 | 5 | 16 | 49 | 201 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 230 | 298 | 371 | 670 | 141 | 317 | 31 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -65 | +3 | -9 | -69 | +14 | -12.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 95 PAwOBA .298 → .240 (−58)K% 25.3% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.26% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.84% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 10.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.55% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 14.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .298 → .240; ISO .139 → .117; BABIP .245 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALouisville Bats · 393 PAwOBA .398 → .337 (−61)K% 23.9% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.92% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.74% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.27% | ÷0.998 | ×0.930 | ×1.031 | ×1.018 | 27.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×1.018 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×1.031 | ×1.018 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.75% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .398 → .337; ISO .205 → .156; BABIP .386 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 425 PAwOBA .347 → .279 (−68)K% 27.5% → 33.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.53% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.41% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.27% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 19.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.084 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.64% | ÷0.990 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.35% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .347 → .279; ISO .204 → .164; BABIP .327 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALouisville Bats · 103 PAwOBA .327 → .246 (−81)K% 28.2% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.16% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.77% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 21.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.15% | ÷1.282 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .327 → .246; ISO .181 → .110; BABIP .328 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 292 PAwOBA .336 → .297 (−39)K% 24.3% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.040 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.90% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×1.012 | 22.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.183 | ×0.870 | ×1.031 | ×1.012 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.76% | ÷0.912 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×1.012 | 3.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.69% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 102, 2B 137, 3B 82, K 108, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .336 → .297; ISO .167 → .148; BABIP .348 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).