Ryan Jensen

P Iowa Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAAMIN	44	3	57	4.76	3.81	30.9%	19.1%	—	K 26.6% · BB 17.2% · FIP 3.92
2025	27	AAAMIN	21	1	29	6.59	4.91	28.3%	18.8%	—	K 24.3% · BB 17.0% · FIP 4.59
2026	28	MIX3 levels	20	0	24	4.07	4.00	20.3%	16.1%	—	K 18.8% · BB 15.5% · FIP 4.03
2027PROJ	29	MLBCHC	15	0	16	4.92	4.92	22.2%	15.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBCHC	7	0	7	4.97	5.04	22.0%	14.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDustin Molleken (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%22.2%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	80	326	90	31	10	100%	4.0	21.4%	10.8%	10.6%	4.0%	4.16	4.86	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	80	326	90	31	10	100%	4.0	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	3.1%	4.16	3.64	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	17	17	59	259	60	39	5	100%	3.5	18.8%	16.6%	2.2%	2.3%	4.25	4.87	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	17	17	59	259	60	39	5	100%	3.5	23.2%	15.1%	8.1%	1.9%	4.25	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	6	64	311	78	54	6	14%	1.5	20.9%	17.0%	3.9%	2.0%	5.32	4.61	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	6	64	311	78	54	6	14%	1.5	25.1%	17.4%	7.7%	1.9%	5.32	4.41	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	44	3	57	262	81	50	4	7%	1.3	26.6%	17.2%	9.4%	1.6%	4.76	3.92	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	44	3	57	262	81	50	4	7%	1.3	26.6%	17.2%	9.4%	1.6%	4.76	3.92	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	44	3	57	262	81	50	4	7%	1.3	30.9%	19.1%	11.8%	1.5%	4.76	3.81	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	1	29	138	39	26	4	5%	1.4	24.3%	17.0%	7.3%	2.5%	6.59	4.59	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	21	1	29	138	39	26	4	5%	1.4	24.3%	17.0%	7.3%	2.5%	6.59	4.59	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	21	1	29	138	39	26	4	5%	1.4	28.3%	18.8%	9.4%	2.9%	6.59	4.91	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	24	118	24	19	1	0%	1.2	18.8%	15.5%	3.2%	1.0%	4.07	4.03	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	24	118	24	19	1	0%	1.2	18.8%	15.5%	3.2%	1.0%	4.07	4.03	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	24	118	24	19	1	0%	1.2	20.3%	16.1%	4.2%	0.8%	4.07	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CHC	15	0	16	68	15	10	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.0%	7.2%	2.6%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	19	0	20	84	19	12	2	0%	1.1	22.0%	14.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	7	0	7	30	6	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	14.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.97	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	5	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	14.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	136	27	0%	1.1	22.0%	14.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		165	47	313	1414	309	218	34	28%	1.9	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	2.4%	4.74	4.54	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	30	200	903	197	139	22	28%	1.9	21.8%	15.4%	6.4%	2.4%	4.74	4.54	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Jensen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	22.2%	15.0%	2.6%	—	5.04	22.0%	7.2%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	74
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	73
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	321	73
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	70
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	70
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	70
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	69
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	69
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	69
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	69
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	69
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	69
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	68
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	68
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	67
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	67