Matthew Dyer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | A+TB | 265 | .233/.328/.328 | 4 | 10 | 30 | — | .169/.242/.240 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA/A+TB | 64 | .254/.302/.441 | 3 | 0 | 47 | — | .199/.238/.333 |
| 2024 | 26 | AATB | 135 | .212/.306/.322 | 1 | 5 | 35 | — | .171/.239/.252 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 267 | 231 | 60 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 82 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 260 | 355 | 519 | 874 | 260 | 345 | 31 | 11 | 379 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 60 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 173 | 271 | 250 | 521 | 77 | 242 | 32 | 10 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 265 | 232 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 86 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 233 | 328 | 328 | 656 | 95 | 352 | 32 | 9 | 304 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 41 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 300 | 361 | 661 | 139 | 438 | 49 | 10 | 292 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 23 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 304 | 565 | 870 | 261 | 333 | 26 | 0 | 378 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 135 | 118 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 212 | 306 | 322 | 628 | 110 | 338 | 34 | 11 | 287 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 267 | 241 | 44 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 115 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 183 | 257 | 353 | 609 | 170 | 297 | 43 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 265 | 242 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 112 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 169 | 242 | 240 | 481 | 70 | 290 | 42 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 41 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 250 | 324 | 574 | 135 | 403 | 59 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 23 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 217 | 348 | 565 | 130 | 274 | 35 | 0 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 135 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 239 | 252 | 491 | 81 | 300 | 41 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 294 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 141 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 184 | 259 | 357 | 616 | 173 | 301 | 43 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 283 | 69 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 101 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 244 | 340 | 470 | 809 | 226 | 326 | 31 | 11 | 354 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 265 | 242 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 112 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 169 | 242 | 240 | 481 | 70 | 299 | 42 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 265 | 232 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 86 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 233 | 328 | 328 | 656 | 95 | 352 | 32 | 9 | 304 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 64 | 60 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 333 | 571 | 133 | 370 | 50 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 64 | 59 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 254 | 302 | 441 | 742 | 186 | 387 | 41 | 6 | 323 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 135 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 239 | 252 | 491 | 81 | 303 | 41 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 135 | 118 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 212 | 306 | 322 | 628 | 110 | 338 | 34 | 11 | 287 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 294 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 141 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 184 | 259 | 357 | 616 | 173 | 297 | 43 | 7 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 265 | 240 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 112 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 171 | 242 | 242 | 483 | 71 | 290 | 42 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 64 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 238 | 328 | 566 | 131 | 357 | 50 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 135 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 239 | 252 | 491 | 81 | 300 | 41 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 135 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 171 | 239 | 252 | 491 | 81 | 300 | 41 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 791 | 719 | 128 | 24 | 7 | 16 | 51 | 341 | 16 | 29 | 6 | 178 | 248 | 298 | 546 | 120 | 306 | 43 | 6 | 237 | 47 | -50 | +3 | +0 | -5 | +17 | -3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 106 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 280 | 13 | 24 | 5 | 179 | 249 | 299 | 549 | 120 | 309 | 43 | 6 | 237 | 47 | -41 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 135 PAwOBA .280 → .220 (−60)K% 34.1% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.07% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.022 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 19.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.972 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.115 | ×0.880 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 2.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.958 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.15% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 123, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .280 → .220; ISO .110 → .089; BABIP .338 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 41 PAwOBA .291 → .224 (−67)K% 48.8% → 58.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 48.78% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 58.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.072 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.949 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 30.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.030 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 11.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.087 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.59% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .291 → .224; ISO .139 → .100; BABIP .438 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 23 PAwOBA .366 → .262 (−104)K% 26.1% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.950 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 24.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.103 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.066 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 9.49% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 121, K 90, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .366 → .262; ISO .261 → .182; BABIP .333 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 265 PAwOBA .297 → .212 (−85)K% 32.5% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.45% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.06% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.40% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.77% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 24.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 2.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.989 | ×0.988 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.020 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .297 → .212; ISO .095 → .071; BABIP .352 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 267 PAwOBA .372 → .265 (−107)K% 30.7% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.71% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.86% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.87% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.46% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 17.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.40% | ÷0.871 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 8.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.36% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 2.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.05% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .372 → .265; ISO .260 → .178; BABIP .345 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .