Matthew Dyer — OGILVIE

Matthew DyerOF Montgomery Biscuits

Age 28 R/R 6'3" / 185 lbs AA HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .277 / .334

PA12

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO123

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	267	231	60	14	5	12	29	82	5	10	3	260	355	519	874	260	345	31	11	379	143	+14	+1	—	—	+6	2.1
2021	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	60	52	9	1	0	1	6	19	1	4	1	173	271	250	521	77	242	32	10	244	51	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2022	24	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	265	232	54	6	2	4	24	86	9	10	2	233	328	328	656	95	352	32	9	304	92	-3	+1	—	—	+6	0.5
2023	25	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	41	36	8	2	0	1	4	20	0	0	0	222	300	361	661	139	438	49	10	292	84	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	25	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	23	23	7	0	0	2	0	6	0	0	0	304	304	565	870	261	333	26	0	378	142	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2024	26	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	135	118	25	6	2	1	15	46	1	5	0	212	306	322	628	110	338	34	11	287	80	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	267	241	45	11	3	8	19	115	5	10	3	187	260	357	617	170	300	43	7	267	67	-11	+1	—	—	+6	-0.4
2022	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	265	241	42	4	2	3	15	115	9	10	2	174	249	245	494	71	311	43	6	219	34	-21	+1	—	—	+6	-1.4
2023	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	41	37	7	2	0	1	3	24	0	0	0	189	250	324	574	135	405	59	7	224	38	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	25	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	23	23	5	0	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	217	217	348	565	130	295	35	0	264	65	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	135	123	22	5	2	1	10	56	1	5	0	179	246	276	523	98	306	41	7	223	37	-10	+1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	327	294	55	13	4	10	24	141	6	14	4	187	262	361	623	173	308	43	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	327	283	69	15	5	13	35	101	6	14	4	244	340	470	809	226	326	31	11	354	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	265	241	42	4	2	3	15	115	9	10	2	174	249	245	494	71	317	43	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	265	232	54	6	2	4	24	86	9	10	2	233	328	328	656	95	352	32	9	304	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	64	60	12	2	0	2	3	32	0	0	0	200	238	333	571	133	370	50	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	64	59	15	2	0	3	4	26	0	0	0	254	302	441	742	186	387	41	6	323	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	135	123	22	5	2	1	10	56	1	5	0	179	246	276	523	98	318	41	7	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	—	135	118	25	6	2	1	15	46	1	5	0	212	306	322	628	110	338	34	11	287	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	327	294	55	13	4	10	24	141	6	14	4	187	262	361	623	173	300	43	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	265	239	42	4	2	3	15	115	9	10	2	176	249	247	496	71	311	43	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	64	61	12	2	0	2	3	32	0	0	0	197	238	328	566	131	365	50	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	135	123	22	5	2	1	10	56	1	5	0	179	246	276	523	98	306	41	7	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	64	61	12	2	0	2	3	32	0	0	0	197	238	328	566	131	365	50	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	135	123	22	5	2	1	10	56	1	5	0	179	246	276	523	98	306	41	7	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	TB	2%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		290	33	8	277	74	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TB	23%	194	175	37	7	1	4	15	57	2	4	1	211	281	331	613	120	289	29	8	280	75	-6	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	TB	23%	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	13	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	298	30	7	280	75	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	44	41	9	2	0	1	3	13	0	1	0	220	273	341	614	122	296	30	7	280	55	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	134	30	0	15	44	192	0	15	0	221	274	345	619	124	298	30	7	280	55	-19	+3	-5	-4	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	997	904	170	31	9	20	68	405	18	33	7	188	259	309	567	121	310	41	7	249	55	-6	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	111	20	6	13	44	264	12	22	5	188	259	309	568	121	311	41	7	249	55	-19	+1	-4	-4	+14	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Dyer (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	212/277/334	122	290	3	3	30%	7%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	39	218/274/342	124	296	11	16	30%	5%	74	-0.6	235/293/378	143	305	15	19	27%	6%	89	+0.5	203/276/332	129	289	14	30	33%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Brett Carroll 2011 · MLB	28	40→45	48→55	45→50	44	207/283/349	141	260	15	8	26%	7%	80	-0.2	210/276/339	129	270	14	11	27%	7%	74	-0.5	201/267/326	125	260	14	11	27%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43	46→50	49→50	42	215/271/341	126	287	13	11	30%	6%	72	-0.7	204/270/355	151	326	19	14	41%	7%	76	-0.4	143/213/283	140	229	22	18	47%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Taylor Featherston 2018 · MLB	28	39→47	44→50	52→50	39	200/255/314	114	276	12	12	31%	6%	60	-1.6	184/242/301	117	304	13	10	42%	5%	53	-2.1	161/218/272	111	281	13	8	45%	4%	35	-2.3
✕Narciso Crook 2022 · AAA	27	42→43	47→50	49→50	40	211/279/350	139	304	15	12	34%	7%	78	-0.3	208/282/351	143	321	16	15	38%	7%	80	-0.2	194/272/334	141	306	16	17	39%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA	28	39→43	46→50	45→50	42	204/258/334	130	266	14	7	29%	6%	65	-1.2	216/265/341	125	294	14	8	30%	6%	70	-0.9	218/256/337	119	286	16	6	29%	4%	62	-1.0
✕Melky Mesa 2015 · AAA	28	42→44	48→50	51→55	33	215/255/355	140	305	16	14	35%	4%	70	-0.9	206/243/313	107	315	9	8	36%	4%	55	-2.0	195/229/291	96	303	7	5	37%	3%	41	-1.8
✕Clint Coulter 2021 · AAA	28	45→43	46→50	48→40	37	216/271/350	134	325	14	8	36%	6%	74	-0.5	215/276/360	145	283	17	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	201/269/342	141	247	16	4	25%	5%	69	-0.3
✕Miles Durham 2011 · AA	28	47→50	45→50	47→50	40	231/280/357	126	315	11	10	30%	6%	79	-0.2	207/254/308	101	305	7	12	32%	6%	57	-1.8	189/233/280	92	285	4	13	34%	5%	42	-1.5
✕Michael Rosamond 2006 · AAA	28	41	45→55	48→45	40	210/262/331	121	285	13	10	31%	6%	66	-1.1	215/260/357	142	318	16	9	36%	5%	72	-0.7	204/243/360	156	309	18	6	39%	4%	63	-0.8
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	49→50	48→45	43	205/263/348	142	263	17	10	29%	7%	71	-0.8	223/279/369	146	284	18	8	27%	7%	82	-0.0	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	86	+0.1
✕Adam Fox 2010 · AAA	28	43→44	47→45	49→45	41	220/268/351	131	269	16	9	25%	5%	73	-0.6	197/244/320	123	248	13	9	25%	5%	57	-1.8	161/205/270	109	202	9	7	25%	5%	29	-1.4
✕Elier Hernandez 2023 · MLB	28	45→51	49→50	51→50	39	228/276/376	148	295	16	11	28%	5%	82	+0.0	234/287/370	136	310	13	9	28%	6%	84	+0.2	231/282/358	127	305	13	8	28%	6%	76	-0.5
✕Weston Wilson 2023 · AAA	28	41→43	47→55	51→55	40	207/263/336	128	288	15	17	33%	7%	68	-1.0	213/285/371	158	283	20	23	31%	9%	84	+0.2	207/286/372	166	264	22	25	30%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Patrick Brady 2016 · AAA	28	44	45	49→45	39	219/260/341	122	287	13	13	28%	5%	68	-1.0	215/275/314	99	307	6	11	30%	7%	67	-1.1	202/271/295	93	296	3	9	30%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	40→45	43→45	49→55	41	197/267/307	110	285	11	17	34%	7%	63	-1.3	210/296/321	111	330	11	25	36%	10%	78	-0.3	196/292/297	101	315	10	32	37%	10%	69	-0.4
✕Kristopher Negrón 2015 · MLB	29	45→50	43→45	54→55	39	218/270/328	111	296	10	18	29%	5%	69	-0.9	214/268/322	108	281	10	16	26%	5%	67	-1.1	226/289/352	126	323	14	14	32%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA	28	45	44→45	48→45	40	223/273/341	119	304	12	10	30%	6%	72	-0.7	233/284/375	142	336	15	10	34%	6%	85	+0.2	232/278/378	146	339	17	6	35%	5%	82	-0.0
✕Steve Moss 2012 · AAA	28	46→49	45	50	40	222/284/347	125	318	13	10	33%	7%	78	-0.3	242/311/399	157	325	20	11	30%	8%	101	+1.4	229/311/406	176	282	23	8	27%	9%	100	+0.3
✕Jake Hager 2021 · AAA	28	41→51	46→50	49→50	39	210/259/340	130	291	14	9	32%	6%	68	-1.0	202/262/326	124	272	12	10	29%	7%	65	-1.2	194/252/287	94	273	6	7	30%	6%	50	-0.9