Alex McGarry1B
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 28
L/L
6'1" / 213 lbs
AA
HR +9%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .269 / .333
PA170
HR4
K%35
BB%7
MLB%2%
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.5peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-15M | $-21M | -$6M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | 2 teams | 321 | 301 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 150 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .176 | .225 | .312 | .537 | .136 | .308 | 47 | 5 | .230 | 34 | -24 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +9 | -2.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | 3 teams | 449 | 425 | 89 | 16 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 171 | 4 | 15 | 4 | .209 | .250 | .426 | .676 | .216 | .288 | 38 | 4 | .284 | 75 | -13 | +1 | +0 | -8 | +13 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | 3 teams | 488 | 453 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 177 | 2 | 14 | 6 | .219 | .266 | .340 | .606 | .121 | .327 | 36 | 6 | .263 | 60 | -22 | +0 | +0 | -9 | +14 | -1.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 60 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .130 | .203 | .148 | .352 | .019 | .241 | 43 | 8 | .179 | -4 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 170 | 154 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .208 | .274 | .338 | .611 | .130 | .300 | 35 | 8 | .272 | 67 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 9% | CIN | 243 | 221 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 82 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .208 | .274 | .339 | .613 | .131 | .299 | 34 | 7 | .276 | 69 | -9 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +7 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 19% | CIN | 290 | 264 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 97 | 2 | 5 | 1 | .208 | .274 | .337 | .611 | .129 | .297 | 33 | 8 | .276 | 69 | -10 | +1 | -2 | -5 | +8 | -0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 29% | CIN | 287 | 261 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 95 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .207 | .274 | .333 | .607 | .126 | .295 | 33 | 8 | .275 | 68 | -10 | +0 | -3 | -5 | +8 | -1.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 40% | CIN | 275 | 250 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .204 | .271 | .324 | .595 | .120 | .293 | 33 | 8 | .271 | 66 | -11 | +0 | -4 | -5 | +8 | -1.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 54% | CIN | 250 | 227 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 86 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .203 | .270 | .317 | .587 | .115 | .292 | 34 | 8 | .266 | 62 | -11 | +0 | -4 | -4 | +7 | -1.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 71% | CIN | 211 | 192 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .198 | .263 | .307 | .570 | .109 | .290 | 35 | 8 | .259 | 57 | -10 | +0 | -5 | -4 | +6 | -1.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3044 | 2802 | 570 | 110 | 16 | 80 | 197 | 1109 | 22 | 58 | 15 | .203 | .261 | .340 | .601 | .136 | .301 | 36 | 6 | .265 | 61 | -133 | +6 | -19 | -54 | +86 | -11.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 598 | 121 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 42 | 237 | 5 | 12 | 3 | .202 | .260 | .336 | .596 | .134 | .300 | 36 | 6 | .265 | 61 | -28 | +1 | -4 | -12 | +18 | -2.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 289 | 270 | 62 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 101 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .230 | .280 | .367 | .647 | .137 | .340 | 35 | 5 | .290 | 80 | -6 | +1 | — | — | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 32 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .360 | .484 | .960 | 1.444 | .600 | .385 | 28 | 19 | .566 | 291 | +7 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 26 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .269 | .292 | .561 | .083 | .278 | 23 | 8 | .257 | 55 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 256 | 238 | 61 | 11 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 73 | 2 | 9 | 1 | .256 | .309 | .529 | .838 | .273 | .302 | 29 | 6 | .363 | 136 | +10 | +1 | — | — | +7 | 1.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 167 | 154 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 57 | 2 | 6 | 3 | .286 | .337 | .604 | .941 | .318 | .379 | 34 | 6 | .402 | 166 | +12 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 52 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .231 | .354 | .585 | .188 | .231 | 38 | 8 | .260 | 57 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 416 | 371 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 38 | 107 | 2 | 14 | 6 | .280 | .350 | .431 | .782 | .151 | .365 | 26 | 9 | .345 | 122 | +10 | +0 | — | — | +12 | 2.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | 20 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .368 | .500 | .868 | .167 | .333 | 15 | 5 | .365 | 138 | +1 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 28 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .250 | .125 | .375 | .000 | .300 | 50 | 14 | .197 | 9 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 32 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .214 | .290 | .286 | .576 | .071 | .273 | 22 | 9 | .259 | 56 | -2 | +1 | — | — | +1 | -0.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Alex McGarry (OGILVIE) | 28 | — | — | — | — | .205/.269/.333 | .128 | .300 | 4 | 4 | 35% | 7% | 67 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Mark Contreras 2022 · AAA |
27 | 38 | 49→50 | 50→55 | 37 | .194/.258/.343 | .149 | .284 | 16 | 15 | 36% | 6% | 65 | -0.7 | .203/.264/.339 | .136 | .292 | 16 | 23 | 35% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .192/.256/.306 | .115 | .275 | 14 | 30 | 34% | 6% | 50 | -1.2 |
|
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2019 · AAA |
28 | 45 | 47→50 | 47→45 | 39 | .224/.271/.354 | .130 | .303 | 15 | 10 | 31% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .234/.282/.385 | .151 | .334 | 17 | 10 | 34% | 5% | 85 | +0.7 | .237/.283/.399 | .163 | .342 | 20 | 6 | 35% | 5% | 87 | +0.4 |
|
✕Greg Deichmann 2023 · MLB |
28 | 44→48 | 43→50 | 50 | 41 | .212/.271/.325 | .114 | .312 | 11 | 13 | 34% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .207/.262/.353 | .146 | .307 | 18 | 16 | 36% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .188/.247/.352 | .164 | .269 | 21 | 18 | 38% | 7% | 58 | -0.8 |
|
✕Mike Costanzo 2012 · AAA |
28 | 42→48 | 47→50 | 45→40 | 40 | .209/.266/.345 | .136 | .298 | 14 | 6 | 34% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .211/.271/.346 | .135 | .297 | 14 | 4 | 32% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .200/.264/.329 | .129 | .278 | 14 | 1 | 32% | 8% | 61 | -0.5 |
|
✕Ronnie Dawson 2022 · AAA |
27 | 39→48 | 44→45 | 46→55 | 42 | .197/.268/.314 | .117 | .281 | 12 | 15 | 33% | 7% | 61 | -1.0 | .218/.283/.328 | .110 | .303 | 10 | 14 | 30% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .211/.278/.313 | .102 | .300 | 10 | 13 | 31% | 6% | 62 | -0.7 |
|
✕Aaron Rifkin 2007 · AAA |
28 | 42→43 | 48→50 | 47→45 | 45 | .216/.276/.361 | .145 | .270 | 15 | 8 | 26% | 7% | 76 | +0.1 | .222/.273/.365 | .143 | .300 | 15 | 6 | 30% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 | .217/.266/.358 | .142 | .294 | 15 | 3 | 31% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 |
|
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA |
27 | 38→41 | 43→45 | 50 | 41 | .181/.265/.280 | .099 | .307 | 11 | 12 | 42% | 9% | 52 | -1.6 | .204/.296/.339 | .135 | .334 | 15 | 13 | 39% | 10% | 80 | +0.4 | .217/.319/.382 | .165 | .335 | 19 | 13 | 37% | 12% | 95 | +0.9 |
|
✕Dillon Thomas 2021 · AA |
28 | 44→54 | 45 | 50 | 38 | .214/.275/.336 | .123 | .318 | 12 | 17 | 35% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .221/.301/.355 | .134 | .333 | 15 | 12 | 36% | 7% | 86 | +0.8 | .215/.304/.349 | .134 | .327 | 16 | 10 | 36% | 7% | 82 | +0.4 |
|
✕Matt Skole 2017 · AAA |
28 | 38→39 | 49→50 | 46→40 | 45 | .202/.269/.346 | .144 | .254 | 18 | 4 | 28% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .199/.266/.345 | .146 | .259 | 18 | 3 | 29% | 8% | 68 | -0.5 | .186/.263/.326 | .140 | .247 | 17 | 1 | 31% | 9% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
✕Daniel Johnson 2023 · MLB |
28 | 38→48 | 49→55 | 49→55 | 36 | .198/.250/.338 | .139 | .290 | 17 | 9 | 37% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .222/.275/.378 | .156 | .281 | 19 | 18 | 28% | 6% | 80 | +0.4 | .226/.279/.389 | .163 | .272 | 20 | 21 | 25% | 6% | 82 | +0.4 |
|
✕Quincy Latimore 2017 · AA |
28 | 41→42 | 48→50 | 46→50 | 41 | .210/.264/.348 | .138 | .277 | 16 | 8 | 30% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .214/.263/.345 | .131 | .291 | 16 | 7 | 31% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .216/.254/.339 | .124 | .283 | 17 | 6 | 30% | 4% | 57 | -0.8 |
|
✕Blake Tekotte 2015 · MLB |
28 | 38→46 | 44→50 | 43→55 | 39 | .192/.245/.311 | .119 | .266 | 11 | 11 | 31% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .217/.277/.339 | .122 | .282 | 12 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .230/.298/.337 | .108 | .281 | 9 | 10 | 20% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 |
|
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA |
27 | 40→39 | 48→60 | 52→50 | 45 | .204/.276/.351 | .147 | .273 | 15 | 13 | 30% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .217/.278/.403 | .186 | .291 | 23 | 15 | 32% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .201/.267/.390 | .189 | .270 | 24 | 17 | 34% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 |
|
✕Brett Carroll 2011 · MLB |
28 | 40→45 | 48→55 | 45→50 | 43 | .207/.279/.350 | .143 | .260 | 16 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .214/.279/.353 | .139 | .271 | 16 | 10 | 26% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 | .207/.272/.347 | .140 | .262 | 17 | 11 | 27% | 7% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Taylor Featherston 2018 · MLB |
28 | 39→45 | 45→50 | 51→50 | 39 | .201/.254/.323 | .122 | .272 | 13 | 12 | 31% | 5% | 57 | -1.2 | .183/.239/.304 | .121 | .303 | 14 | 10 | 42% | 5% | 46 | -2.0 | .154/.212/.270 | .115 | .278 | 14 | 8 | 48% | 4% | 24 | -2.4 |
|
✕Joe McCarthy 2021 · AAA |
27 | 38→48 | 47→45 | 49→50 | 44 | .193/.275/.329 | .136 | .282 | 15 | 7 | 35% | 9% | 68 | -0.5 | .235/.300/.399 | .164 | .296 | 19 | 9 | 26% | 7% | 96 | +1.5 | .244/.311/.426 | .182 | .293 | 22 | 6 | 24% | 7% | 105 | +1.1 |
|
✕Josh Lester 2021 · AAA |
27 | 40→43 | 48→60 | 48→40 | 42 | .207/.262/.346 | .139 | .270 | 16 | 3 | 30% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .209/.257/.398 | .189 | .266 | 25 | 5 | 31% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .203/.249/.394 | .191 | .250 | 26 | 4 | 31% | 5% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Michael Rosamond 2006 · AAA |
28 | 41 | 47→55 | 49→45 | 39 | .212/.263/.343 | .132 | .290 | 15 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .213/.256/.365 | .152 | .322 | 18 | 9 | 38% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .201/.237/.370 | .169 | .311 | 21 | 6 | 42% | 4% | 60 | -0.6 |
|
✕Rhett Wiseman 2021 · AA |
27 | 37→41 | 50 | 46→45 | 38 | .195/.256/.347 | .152 | .291 | 18 | 8 | 38% | 7% | 65 | -0.7 | .196/.247/.318 | .122 | .333 | 13 | 7 | 43% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .168/.216/.286 | .117 | .293 | 13 | 3 | 45% | 4% | 28 | -1.7 |
|
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA |
27 | 42→39 | 50→55 | 50→45 | 42 | .214/.273/.375 | .161 | .282 | 16 | 8 | 30% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .214/.282/.355 | .141 | .270 | 12 | 8 | 24% | 7% | 77 | +0.1 | .209/.292/.354 | .145 | .250 | 13 | 3 | 21% | 8% | 80 | +0.2 |