Austin Kitchen

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 30 LHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	45	0	61	4.45	3.18	20.5%	6.1%	—	K 17.3% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.47
2024	27	MIX3 levels	41	1	59	5.01	3.64	14.2%	6.9%	0.6	K 12.5% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.70
2025	28	AAASEA	48	1	70	3.36	3.29	18.1%	6.1%	—	K 15.6% · BB 5.5% · FIP 3.34
2027PROJ	30	MLBSEA	65	0	68	4.51	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBSEA	22	0	23	4.61	4.69	14.8%	6.9%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBSEA	30	0	32	4.76	4.89	15.0%	7.5%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command45

CompsJimmy Reyes (age 28) · Kraig Sitton (age 29) · Kyle Hunter (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%14.3%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†3030

SI (34%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (23%)

CH-1.5 (17%)

FB-4.6 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	8	51	229	38	14	3	42%	2.7	12.3%	7.2%	5.1%	1.4%	4.97	3.74	—
2021	24	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	19	8	51	229	38	14	3	42%	2.7	16.6%	6.1%	10.5%	1.3%	4.97	3.20	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	4	81	335	71	23	15	11%	2.3	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	4.6%	3.32	5.24	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	4	81	335	71	23	15	11%	2.3	21.2%	6.9%	14.3%	4.5%	3.32	4.60	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	61	263	54	16	5	0%	1.3	17.3%	6.5%	10.8%	1.8%	4.45	3.47	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	61	263	54	16	5	0%	1.3	20.5%	6.1%	14.4%	1.9%	4.45	3.18	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	59	261	37	18	4	2%	1.4	12.5%	6.3%	6.2%	1.6%	5.01	3.70	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	41	1	59	261	37	18	4	2%	1.4	12.5%	6.3%	6.2%	1.6%	5.01	3.70	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	41	1	59	261	37	18	4	2%	1.4	14.2%	6.9%	7.3%	1.5%	5.01	3.64	+0.6
2025	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	70	293	53	18	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	5.5%	10.0%	1.6%	3.36	3.34	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	70	293	53	18	5	2%	1.5	15.6%	5.5%	10.0%	1.6%	3.36	3.34	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	48	1	70	293	53	18	5	2%	1.5	18.1%	6.1%	11.9%	1.7%	3.36	3.29	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	7	42	4	3	1	25%	1.8	9.5%	7.1%	2.4%	2.4%	14.14	5.10	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SEA	65	0	68	287	41	18	8	0%	1.0	14.3%	6.3%	8.1%	2.6%	4.51	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	60	0	63	267	40	19	8	0%	1.1	14.8%	6.9%	7.9%	2.9%	4.61	4.69	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	247	37	19	8	0%	1.0	15.0%	7.5%	7.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.89	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	22	0	23	97	14	7	3	0%	1.0	14.8%	6.9%	7.9%	2.9%	4.61	4.69	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	SEA	30	0	32	135	20	10	4	0%	1.1	15.0%	7.5%	7.5%	3.1%	4.76	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	1	63	277	39	20	8	2%	1.1	14.1%	7.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.75	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		182	3	200	884	125	64	26	2%	1.1	14.1%	7.2%	6.9%	2.9%	5.75	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		189	14	322	1381	207	92	32	7%	1.7	15.0%	6.7%	8.3%	2.3%	4.11	3.96	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	9	200	859	129	57	20	7%	1.7	15.0%	6.7%	8.3%	2.3%	4.11	3.96	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Kitchen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	2.6%	—	4.79	14.9%	7.7%	122	+0.28	—	—	—
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	78
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	77
Kyle Hunter L 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SU	4.50	14.0%	6.1%	3.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	188	77
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	77
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	76
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	76
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	74
Chad Zerbe L 2002 · 3.87 FIP	30	SU	3.87	10.8%	7.9%	1.2%	.255	3.89	7.8%	2.3%	50	+0.02	3.75	145	74
Jack Taschner L 2008 · 4.09 FIP	30	SU	4.09	17.2%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	4.73	15.2%	3.0%	49	+0.64	3.14	189	73
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	72
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	29	SU	3.68	17.1%	5.3%	2.5%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	322	71
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	70
Darin Downs L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	30	SU	4.06	12.9%	4.2%	2.8%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	107	70
Erasmo Ramirez L 2005 · 4.68 FIP	29	SU	4.68	6.2%	3.1%	3.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	108	69
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	169	69
Brian Tallet L 2008 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	19.6%	7.9%	1.7%	.282	5.06	16.0%	6.3%	251	+1.70	2.59	443	68
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	68
Richard Bleier L 2017 · 3.39 FIP	30	SU	3.39	12.4%	3.2%	1.7%	.250	3.03	12.9%	10.1%	105	-0.36	2.28	591	67
Ozzie Mendez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	10.3%	9.4%	1.0%	.321	7.57	11.3%	3.3%	38	+3.62	3.95	161	67
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	14.5%	6.9%	1.10	4.96
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
T.J. Tucker ('05)	1.1	76	13.9%	7.2%	1.06	4.57
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Will McEnaney ('74-'79, 1 WAR*)	1.7	70	14.4%*	6.1%*	1.02*	4.35*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*