Zach Penrod

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	29	12	67	4.05	2.86	33.4%	12.9%	1.4	K 29.0% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.37
2025	28	MIX2 levels	26	6	33	7.83	5.68	17.9%	20.7%	—	K 14.7% · BB 18.5% · FIP 5.28
2026	29	AAAWSH	36	9	46	4.27	5.22	19.2%	16.0%	—	K 16.6% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.22
2027PROJ	30	MLBWSH	24	0	25	5.37	5.37	18.0%	14.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBWSH	9	0	9	5.38	5.46	18.1%	14.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJohn Rheinecker (age 28) · Juan Pablo Perez (age 28) · Bobby Jones (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%18.0%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%3.6%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

SL+1.4 (24%)

CH (30%)

FB-1.4 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	4	3	12	56	16	6	3	75%	2.9	19.4%	13.4%	6.0%	7.5%	6.17	7.27	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	4	3	12	56	16	6	3	75%	2.9	28.6%	10.7%	17.9%	5.4%	6.17	5.24	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	4	4	21	89	20	11	1	100%	5.2	17.3%	14.2%	3.1%	1.5%	2.18	4.27	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	4	4	21	89	20	11	1	100%	5.2	22.5%	12.4%	10.1%	1.1%	2.18	3.39	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	12	67	287	96	37	5	41%	2.3	29.0%	12.1%	16.9%	2.2%	4.05	3.37	+0.9
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	12	67	287	96	37	5	41%	2.3	29.0%	12.1%	16.9%	2.2%	4.05	3.37	+0.9
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	12	67	287	96	37	5	41%	2.3	33.4%	12.9%	20.6%	1.7%	4.05	2.86	+1.4
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	33	179	32	37	3	23%	1.3	14.7%	18.5%	-3.8%	2.0%	7.83	5.28	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	6	33	179	32	37	3	23%	1.3	14.7%	18.5%	-3.8%	2.0%	7.83	5.28	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	6	33	179	32	37	3	23%	1.3	17.9%	20.7%	-2.8%	1.7%	7.83	5.68	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	36	9	46	213	41	34	6	25%	1.3	16.6%	14.4%	2.2%	3.1%	4.27	5.22	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	36	9	46	213	41	34	6	25%	1.3	16.6%	14.4%	2.2%	3.1%	4.27	5.22	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	36	9	46	213	41	34	6	25%	1.3	19.2%	16.0%	3.3%	2.8%	4.27	5.22	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	4	20	3	4	0	0%	0.6	15.0%	20.0%	-5.0%	0.0%	2.25	4.60	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	WSH	24	0	25	106	19	15	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	14.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.37	5.37	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	WSH	22	0	24	100	18	14	3	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.2%	3.9%	3.1%	5.38	5.46	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	WSH	9	0	9	38	7	5	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	14.2%	3.9%	3.1%	5.38	5.46	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	13	57	10	9	1	0%	0.8	17.0%	16.3%	0.7%	2.0%	4.39	4.83	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		241	0	200	894	158	142	16	0%	0.8	17.0%	16.3%	0.7%	2.0%	4.39	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		99	34	179	824	171	119	22	34%	1.8	20.8%	14.4%	6.4%	2.7%	4.74	4.63	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		111	38	200	922	191	133	24	34%	1.8	20.8%	14.4%	6.4%	2.7%	4.74	4.63	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Penrod (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	18.0%	14.4%	2.9%	—	5.46	18.1%	3.9%	24	+0.09	—	—	—
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	72
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	71
Bobby Jones L 2002 · 5.24 FIP	30	SU	5.24	14.3%	12.7%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	321	69
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	69
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	68
Kelly Wunsch L 2002 · 4.60 FIP	30	SU	4.60	15.9%	13.0%	2.2%	.242	3.54	20.8%	8.3%	60	-1.06	3.36	175	67
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	67
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	67
Stephen Randolph L 2004 · 5.69 FIP	30	SU	5.69	15.8%	18.8%	2.8%	.252	5.97	28.2%	9.0%	13	+0.28	4.83	155	67
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	66
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	66
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	194	65
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	65
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	65
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	65
Eric DuBose L 2005 · 5.45 FIP	29	SW	5.45	12.6%	14.1%	3.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	178	65
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	65
Tommy Phelps L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	30	SW	4.80	19.4%	8.3%	4.2%	.286	3.98	13.2%	5.7%	23	-0.82	3.39	120	64
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	64
Ashur Tolliver L 2017 · 5.03 FIP	29	SU	5.03	13.8%	18.9%	1.3%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	134	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	17.8%	14.8%	1.06	5.14
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*