John O'Reilly

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	AAAPIT	41	0	62	5.84	4.80	10.4%	8.6%	—	K 9.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.97
2023	27	AAAPIT	50	2	69	5.74	4.64	16.6%	9.9%	—	K 14.2% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.52
2024	28	MIX2 levels	27	12	79	4.65	3.63	20.2%	6.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	31	MLBLAA	45	0	47	4.35	4.35	20.4%	7.9%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	32	MLBLAA	13	0	14	4.48	4.57	20.2%	8.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsAngel Castro (age 32) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%20.4%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	14	0	28	117	21	10	5	0%	2.0	12.2%	10.7%	1.5%	6.0%	5.86	6.71	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	14	0	28	117	21	10	5	0%	2.0	17.9%	8.5%	9.4%	4.3%	5.86	5.02	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	49	213	31	15	4	0%	1.6	10.8%	8.4%	2.4%	2.5%	1.46	4.60	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	49	213	31	15	4	0%	1.6	14.6%	7.0%	7.5%	1.9%	1.46	3.81	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	3	68	308	35	15	4	8%	1.8	9.5%	5.2%	4.3%	1.4%	5.85	3.72	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	3	68	308	35	15	4	8%	1.8	11.4%	4.9%	6.5%	1.3%	5.85	3.50	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	41	0	62	279	29	24	7	0%	1.5	9.1%	9.0%	0.1%	2.7%	5.84	4.97	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	41	0	62	279	29	24	7	0%	1.5	10.4%	8.6%	1.8%	2.5%	5.84	4.80	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	50	2	69	332	55	33	9	4%	1.4	14.2%	8.9%	5.3%	2.7%	5.74	4.52	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	50	2	69	332	55	33	9	4%	1.4	16.6%	9.9%	6.6%	2.7%	5.74	4.64	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	79	342	69	21	9	44%	2.9	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	1.2%	4.65	3.20	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	79	342	69	21	9	44%	2.9	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	1.2%	4.65	3.20	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	12	79	342	69	21	9	44%	2.9	20.2%	6.1%	14.0%	2.6%	4.65	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	LAA	45	0	47	198	40	16	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	7.9%	12.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAA	41	0	43	182	37	15	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.57	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAA	13	0	14	59	12	5	2	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	57	12	5	2	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	74	30	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.5%	11.8%	3.2%	4.48	4.20	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		200	17	355	1591	197	124	37	8%	1.8	12.4%	7.8%	4.6%	2.4%	4.95	4.33	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	10	200	897	111	70	21	8%	1.8	12.4%	7.8%	4.6%	2.4%	4.95	4.33	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John O'Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	20.4%	7.9%	2.9%	—	4.57	20.2%	11.8%	43	+0.22	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	84
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	80
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	80
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	79
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	79
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	79
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	78
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	78
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	78
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	77
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	77
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	77
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	76
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	75
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	75
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	45	20.3%	8.2%	1.17	4.41
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*