Peyton Gray

P Texas Rangers

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	26	MIX3 levels	24	0	45	2.80	2.92	37.0%	12.0%	—	K 29.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.27
2025	30	MIX2 levels	45	2	73	3.58	3.20	29.0%	8.8%	—	K 22.2% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.23
2026	31	MIX2 levels	56	0	69	3.15	3.32	25.5%	5.4%	1.0	K 24.1% · BB 5.6% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	32	MLBTEX	64	0	67	3.94	4.07	22.7%	5.9%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBTEX	55	0	58	4.21	4.37	21.9%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBTEX	49	0	51	4.49	4.67	21.1%	7.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs71

K%60

Whiff%51

FB Velo30

CompsDale Thayer (age 32) · Tony Barnette (age 32) · Mark Serrano (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.94

FIP4.07

K%22.7%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3093.1

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	0%	1.9	29.2%	14.1%	15.1%	3.4%	2.80	4.27	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	45	192	71	23	5	0%	1.9	37.0%	12.0%	25.0%	2.6%	2.80	2.92	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	22.2%	7.8%	14.3%	3.6%	3.58	4.23	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	22.2%	7.8%	14.3%	3.6%	3.58	4.23	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	2	73	307	89	27	8	4%	1.6	29.0%	8.8%	20.2%	2.6%	3.58	3.20	—
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	69	294	75	16	9	0%	1.2	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.15	3.62	+0.8
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	69	294	75	16	9	0%	1.2	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	3.4%	3.15	3.62	+0.8
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	69	294	75	16	9	0%	1.2	25.5%	5.4%	20.1%	3.1%	3.15	3.32	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			49	0	56	249	60	14	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	5.6%	18.5%	3.6%	3.86	3.80	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	TEX	64	0	67	283	64	17	9	0%	1.0	22.7%	5.9%	16.8%	3.2%	3.94	4.07	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TEX	58	0	61	259	57	17	9	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	3.5%	4.21	4.37	+0.1
2029	34	MLB MLE	TEX	53	0	56	236	50	17	9	0%	1.1	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	3.7%	4.49	4.67	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	TEX	55	0	58	245	54	16	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	6.6%	15.3%	3.5%	4.21	4.37	+0.1
2029	34	MLB CTX	TEX	49	0	51	215	45	16	8	0%	1.0	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	3.7%	4.49	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	0	165	709	159	46	26	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.5%	16.0%	3.6%	4.18	4.00	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	860	193	56	32	0%	1.1	22.4%	6.5%	16.0%	3.6%	4.18	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		125	2	187	793	195	68	28	2%	1.5	24.6%	8.5%	16.0%	3.5%	3.23	4.01	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	850	209	72	30	2%	1.5	24.6%	8.5%	16.0%	3.5%	3.23	4.01	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.07	22.7%	5.9%	3.2%	—	4.51	21.5%	14.6%	117	+0.44	—	—	—
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	85
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	83
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	82
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	81
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	79
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	79
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	78
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	299	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	78
Gregory Infante R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	31	SU	4.07	22.0%	4.6%	4.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	230	78
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	78
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	77
Frank Herrmann R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	32	SU	4.42	21.5%	4.8%	4.6%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	219	77
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	77
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	2.56	421	77
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	76
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	76
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	75
Chris Martin R 2018 · 3.04 FIP	32	SU	3.04	20.9%	1.7%	2.7%	.311	2.92	25.7%	23.1%	117	-0.12	1.76	431	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	60	22.5%	6.6%	1.35	4.12
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Julio Navarro ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	1.1	53	21.7%*	7.8%*	1.55*	4.13*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*