Robbie Baker prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Robbie Baker P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 211 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%21.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	11	0	17	69	17	7	0	0%	1.6	16.8%	12.7%	4.1%	0.0%	1.56	3.29	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	11	0	17	69	17	7	0	0%	1.6	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	0.0%	1.56	2.35	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	32	135	26	8	5	0%	1.9	14.4%	6.9%	7.5%	4.4%	4.50	5.16	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	32	135	26	8	5	0%	1.9	19.3%	5.9%	13.3%	3.7%	4.50	4.26	—
2021	26	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	11	0	25	104	27	10	1	0%	2.2	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	1.3%	4.01	3.62	—
2021	26	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	11	0	25	104	27	10	1	0%	2.2	26.0%	9.6%	16.3%	1.0%	4.01	2.65	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	63	264	66	14	7	2%	1.5	20.0%	5.9%	14.1%	2.6%	4.00	3.59	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	63	264	66	14	7	2%	1.5	25.0%	5.3%	19.7%	2.7%	4.00	3.12	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	31	0	54	242	57	20	16	0%	1.8	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	7.5%	5.96	6.77	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	31	0	54	242	57	20	16	0%	1.8	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	7.5%	5.96	6.77	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	31	0	54	242	57	20	16	0%	1.8	23.6%	8.3%	15.3%	6.6%	5.96	5.93	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	3.2%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIL	31	0	33	138	29	13	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	3.5%	4.69	4.78	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIL	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	3.5%	4.69	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	4	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	3.5%	4.69	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	78	20	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	3.5%	4.69	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		112	1	191	814	150	67	32	1%	1.7	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	4.0%	4.42	4.77	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	1	200	851	157	70	34	1%	1.7	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	4.0%	4.42	4.77	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robbie Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	21.6%	9.2%	3.2%	—	4.78	21.3%	11.8%	33	+0.19	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	84
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	81
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	79
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	79
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	78
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	78
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	77
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	76
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Brian Sanches R 2010 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.217	4.35	19.6%	8.5%	62	+0.11	3.39	229	76
Manny Acosta R 2012 · 4.49 FIP	31	SU	4.49	21.3%	11.1%	3.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	350	76
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	75
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.5%	9.3%	1.29	4.64
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10