Jackson Rees prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jackson Rees P Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%23.5%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	24	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	16	0	21	97	23	7	2	0%	1.3	16.1%	9.0%	7.1%	2.9%	5.06	4.47	—
2018	24	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	16	0	21	97	23	7	2	0%	1.3	23.7%	7.2%	16.5%	2.1%	5.06	3.15	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	62	236	88	15	1	0%	1.6	28.2%	7.4%	20.8%	0.4%	0.73	1.90	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	62	236	88	15	1	0%	1.6	37.3%	6.4%	30.9%	0.4%	0.73	1.19	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	3	0	3	13	2	4	0	0%	0.9	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	0.0%	3.38	5.70	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	3	0	3	13	2	4	0	0%	0.9	15.4%	30.8%	-15.4%	0.0%	3.38	6.10	—
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	2	16	69	22	6	0	13%	1.1	31.9%	8.7%	23.2%	0.0%	3.31	1.51	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	2	16	69	22	6	0	13%	1.1	31.9%	8.7%	23.2%	0.0%	3.31	1.51	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	22	107	30	26	2	0%	1.0	23.7%	21.1%	2.6%	2.4%	7.89	5.12	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	22	107	30	26	2	0%	1.0	23.7%	21.1%	2.6%	2.4%	7.89	5.12	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	22	107	30	26	2	0%	1.0	28.0%	24.3%	3.7%	1.9%	7.89	5.13	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.5%	12.2%	11.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.80	4.90	-0.1
2027	33	MLB CTX	TOR	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.80	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.80	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	109	27	0%	1.1	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.80	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		95	2	124	522	131	59	6	2%	1.3	25.2%	11.2%	13.9%	1.2%	3.13	3.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	3	200	844	213	95	10	2%	1.3	25.2%	11.2%	13.9%	1.2%	3.13	3.08	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Rees (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	23.5%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.90	23.0%	10.6%	20	+0.22	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	81
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	81
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	80
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	80
Dan Winkler R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	32	SU	3.87	24.4%	14.0%	1.9%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	231	77
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	77
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	77
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	75
Jason Bulger R 2010 · 4.36 FIP	31	SU	4.36	22.5%	13.5%	2.6%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	106	74
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	74
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	73
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	73
Brian Sanches R 2011 · 4.35 FIP	32	SU	4.35	19.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	229	72
Jim Henderson R 2015 · 5.27 FIP	32	SU	5.27	16.7%	11.9%	3.8%	.307	4.55	25.8%	16.8%	35	-0.72	1.86	167	72
Rafael Martín R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	20.5%	10.7%	3.7%	.265	3.96	21.3%	15.8%	110	-0.78	2.94	227	72
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	72
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	287	71
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	71