Brandon Williamson

P Cincinnati Reds

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	31	31	151	4.95	4.77	19.1%	9.0%	0.2	K 18.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.65
2024	26	MIX3 levels	9	8	31	2.05	3.92	22.9%	7.6%	0.4	K 20.3% · BB 8.5% · FIP 5.90
2026	28	MIX3 levels	18	14	69	5.45	5.31	16.1%	13.2%	-0.3	K 15.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	27	27	163	5.24	5.53	15.8%	12.7%	-1.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBCIN	24	24	145	5.54	5.74	15.0%	13.0%	-1.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBCIN	23	23	136	5.80	5.97	14.3%	13.4%	-1.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -4.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%37

FB Velo27

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsCarlos Teller (age 29) · Edgar Osuna (age 29) · Jack Snodgrass (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.24

FIP5.53

K%15.8%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%3.0%

Proj IP163

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p100.369

CH+2.4 (21%)

CT+0.8 (33%)

SL+0.5 (11%)

SI (8%)

CU (9%)

FB-6.3 (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	98	409	153	33	11	100%	5.2	29.7%	9.0%	20.7%	3.4%	3.39	3.62	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	98	409	153	33	11	100%	5.2	37.4%	8.1%	29.3%	2.7%	3.39	2.45	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	123	554	123	77	9	100%	4.5	18.6%	15.0%	3.6%	1.7%	4.11	4.36	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	123	554	123	77	9	100%	4.5	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	1.6%	4.11	3.93	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	18.5%	8.7%	9.8%	3.7%	4.95	4.65	+0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	151	656	125	59	25	100%	4.9	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	3.8%	4.95	4.77	+0.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	6.3%	2.05	5.90	-0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	20.3%	8.5%	11.9%	6.3%	2.05	5.90	-0.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	31	118	27	9	4	89%	3.4	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	3.4%	2.05	3.92	+0.4
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	14	69	311	50	41	10	78%	3.9	15.1%	12.6%	2.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.14	-0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	14	69	311	50	41	10	78%	3.9	15.1%	12.6%	2.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.14	-0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	14	69	311	50	41	10	78%	3.9	16.1%	13.2%	2.9%	3.2%	5.45	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	35	184	781	146	73	31	90%	4.7	18.7%	9.3%	9.3%	4.0%	4.65	4.89	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	27	27	163	688	108	88	22	100%	6.0	15.8%	12.7%	3.0%	3.2%	5.24	5.53	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	26	26	153	646	97	84	22	100%	5.9	15.0%	13.0%	2.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.74	-1.4
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	24	24	143	603	86	81	22	100%	5.9	14.3%	13.4%	0.9%	3.7%	5.80	5.97	-1.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	24	24	145	612	92	80	21	100%	6.0	15.0%	13.0%	2.0%	3.4%	5.54	5.74	-1.3
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	23	23	136	574	82	77	21	100%	5.9	14.3%	13.4%	0.9%	3.7%	5.80	5.97	-1.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	82	465	1967	320	230	73	95%	5.4	16.3%	11.7%	4.6%	3.7%	5.26	5.24	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	846	138	99	31	95%	5.4	16.3%	11.7%	4.6%	3.7%	5.26	5.24	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		104	99	472	2048	417	226	65	95%	4.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.51	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	42	200	868	177	96	27	95%	4.5	20.3%	11.0%	9.3%	3.2%	4.29	4.51	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Williamson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	15.8%	12.7%	3.2%	—	5.85	14.7%	1.5%	296	+0.32	—	—	—
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	75
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	73
Darin Gorski L 2016 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	15.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	206	71
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	71
Marco Tovar L 2017 · 5.04 FIP	28	SP-	5.04	16.1%	11.3%	3.4%	.317	4.78	12.6%	7.0%	82	-0.26	3.78	327	69
Amilcar Gaxiola L 2019 · 4.61 FIP	28	SP-	4.61	11.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	321	68
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	67
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	66
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	64
Henry Garcia L 2017 · 4.68 FIP	27	SP	4.68	9.2%	10.2%	1.9%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	114	62
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	62
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	61
Mike Belfiore L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	26	SP	4.63	12.0%	9.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.63	135	61
Lenny DiNardo L 2009 · 5.08 FIP	29	SP	5.08	6.8%	12.8%	1.7%	.424	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	257	61
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	60
David Hurlbut L 2018 · 4.84 FIP	28	SP	4.84	13.9%	6.5%	3.8%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	478	60
Eric Surkamp L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	29	SP	5.09	16.4%	9.3%	4.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	233	60
Tommy Shirley L 2016 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	147	59
Kaz Ishii L 2003 · 4.51 FIP	29	SP	4.51	21.3%	14.8%	2.4%	.280	5.18	13.2%	0.9%	263	+0.67	4.51	564	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	128	16.1%	12.0%	1.39	5.27
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Jim Parque ('03)	2.7	109	13.4%	9.7%	1.29	5.42