Justin Toerner
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AAA/AASTL | 322 | .214/.334/.354 | 8 | 3 | 50 | — | .173/.266/.275 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA/AASTL | 351 | .224/.377/.347 | 7 | 10 | 64 | — | .186/.301/.287 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AASTL | 203 | .160/.315/.313 | 6 | 4 | 35 | — | .127/.240/.228 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 46 | 40 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 391 | 425 | 816 | 125 | 387 | 20 | 11 | 369 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 25 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 500 | 600 | 600 | 1.200 | 100 | 556 | 8 | 20 | 530 | 193 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 199 | 166 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 55 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 211 | 338 | 367 | 706 | 157 | 269 | 28 | 14 | 323 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 236 | 193 | 56 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 290 | 405 | 389 | 794 | 98 | 369 | 21 | 14 | 359 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 33 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 344 | 464 | 808 | 214 | 333 | 27 | 9 | 346 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 289 | 243 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 82 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 210 | 333 | 342 | 675 | 132 | 286 | 28 | 13 | 312 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 81 | 65 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 185 | 303 | 262 | 564 | 77 | 256 | 30 | 11 | 254 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 270 | 212 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 47 | 75 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 236 | 398 | 373 | 770 | 137 | 333 | 28 | 17 | 358 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 36 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 250 | 469 | 719 | 312 | 118 | 33 | 8 | 313 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 167 | 131 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 329 | 275 | 604 | 115 | 207 | 26 | 19 | 287 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 46 | 42 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 326 | 381 | 707 | 119 | 371 | 26 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 25 | 22 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 409 | 520 | 500 | 1.020 | 91 | 495 | 12 | 16 | 453 | 193 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 199 | 174 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 68 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 167 | 268 | 276 | 544 | 109 | 236 | 34 | 10 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 236 | 203 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 70 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 227 | 323 | 315 | 639 | 89 | 308 | 30 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 33 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 312 | 448 | 761 | 207 | 298 | 33 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 289 | 255 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 103 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 165 | 260 | 255 | 515 | 90 | 250 | 36 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 81 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 162 | 250 | 235 | 485 | 74 | 220 | 36 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 270 | 228 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 89 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 193 | 316 | 303 | 619 | 110 | 282 | 33 | 11 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 36 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 121 | 194 | 333 | 528 | 212 | 99 | 42 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 167 | 141 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 128 | 250 | 206 | 456 | 78 | 176 | 32 | 13 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 312 | 380 | 422 | 802 | 109 | 408 | 21 | 8 | 364 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 71 | 60 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 367 | 465 | 483 | 948 | 117 | 449 | 15 | 14 | 426 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 377 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 138 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 199 | 298 | 297 | 595 | 98 | 284 | 32 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 435 | 359 | 91 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 61 | 105 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 253 | 374 | 379 | 753 | 125 | 327 | 24 | 14 | 342 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 284 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 114 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 173 | 266 | 275 | 540 | 102 | 262 | 35 | 8 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 322 | 271 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 91 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 214 | 334 | 354 | 689 | 140 | 291 | 28 | 12 | 316 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 351 | 296 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 119 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 182 | 299 | 270 | 569 | 88 | 278 | 34 | 11 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 351 | 277 | 62 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 56 | 99 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 224 | 377 | 347 | 723 | 123 | 314 | 28 | 16 | 334 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 203 | 174 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 68 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 126 | 240 | 230 | 470 | 103 | 173 | 33 | 11 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 203 | 163 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 160 | 315 | 313 | 628 | 153 | 192 | 27 | 17 | 291 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 71 | 64 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 312 | 380 | 422 | 802 | 109 | 415 | 21 | 8 | 364 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 435 | 379 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 138 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 198 | 298 | 296 | 593 | 98 | 275 | 32 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 322 | 283 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 114 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 173 | 266 | 276 | 541 | 102 | 255 | 35 | 8 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 351 | 299 | 54 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 119 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 181 | 299 | 268 | 566 | 87 | 268 | 34 | 11 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 203 | 175 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 68 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 126 | 240 | 229 | 469 | 103 | 162 | 33 | 11 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1382 | 1195 | 220 | 37 | 4 | 24 | 137 | 454 | 34 | 31 | 13 | 184 | 286 | 282 | 568 | 98 | 270 | 33 | 10 | 258 | 61 | -65 | +1 | +0 | -8 | +30 | -4.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 562 | 103 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 64 | 214 | 16 | 15 | 6 | 183 | 285 | 279 | 564 | 96 | 270 | 33 | 10 | 258 | 61 | -30 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 167 PAwOBA .284 → .220 (−64)K% 25.7% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.75% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.56% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 12.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.77% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 12.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 3.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.41% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.47% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .284 → .220; ISO .115 → .092; BABIP .207 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 36 PAwOBA .304 → .219 (−84)K% 33.3% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 4.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 11.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .304 → .219; ISO .312 → .215; BABIP .118 → .099. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 270 PAwOBA .350 → .277 (−73)K% 27.8% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.04% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 11.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 3.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.09% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 20.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.03% | ÷0.935 | ×0.840 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.957 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.069 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.24% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .350 → .277; ISO .137 → .110; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 81 PAwOBA .257 → .211 (−46)K% 29.6% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.63% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 3.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .257 → .211; ISO .077 → .060; BABIP .256 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 289 PAwOBA .305 → .237 (−67)K% 28.4% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.37% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.80% | ÷1.020 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 8.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.77% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.50% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 18.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.83% | ÷1.107 | ×0.870 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.42% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .305 → .237; ISO .132 → .099; BABIP .286 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 33 PAwOBA .337 → .278 (−59)K% 27.3% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.955 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.033 | 4.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.949 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.01% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .337 → .278; ISO .214 → .168; BABIP .333 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 236 PAwOBA .352 → .284 (−68)K% 21.2% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.19% | ÷1.014 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.56% | ÷0.991 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 10.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.17% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 26.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.50% | ÷1.047 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.69% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 110, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .352 → .284; ISO .098 → .088; BABIP .369 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 199 PAwOBA .313 → .248 (−65)K% 27.6% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.64% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.57% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.72% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.070 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 3.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.31% | ÷1.108 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .248; ISO .157 → .113; BABIP .269 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).