Josh Dye prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Josh Dye P Round Rock Express

Age 29 LHP 6'5" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.56

FIP4.56

K%19.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	41	173	40	6	4	67%	3.4	15.1%	4.1%	11.0%	3.7%	4.20	4.35	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	41	173	40	6	4	67%	3.4	23.1%	3.5%	19.7%	2.3%	4.20	2.85	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	63	254	81	20	2	0%	1.6	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	1.0%	2.15	2.79	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	63	254	81	20	2	0%	1.6	31.9%	7.9%	24.0%	0.8%	2.15	1.89	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	66	269	73	17	6	0%	1.6	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.5%	2.60	3.51	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	66	269	73	17	6	0%	1.6	27.1%	6.3%	20.8%	2.2%	2.60	2.84	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	6	62	268	58	16	14	12%	1.3	19.0%	6.3%	12.8%	5.8%	4.48	5.49	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	48	6	62	268	58	16	14	12%	1.3	21.6%	6.0%	15.7%	5.2%	4.48	4.93	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	1	17	73	7	5	2	10%	1.7	8.2%	6.2%	2.1%	2.9%	5.82	4.78	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	10	1	17	73	7	5	2	10%	1.7	8.2%	6.2%	2.1%	2.9%	5.82	4.78	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	10	1	17	73	7	5	2	10%	1.7	9.6%	6.8%	2.7%	2.7%	5.82	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.56	4.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	17	8	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	-0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	3	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	82	27	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.9%	10.7%	3.2%	4.64	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		149	15	248	1037	204	70	33	10%	1.7	19.6%	6.8%	12.8%	3.2%	3.44	4.07	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	12	200	835	164	57	27	10%	1.7	19.6%	6.8%	12.8%	3.2%	3.44	4.07	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Dye (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	19.6%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.71	19.6%	10.7%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	81
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	80
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	79
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	78
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	78
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Chad Zerbe L 2001 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	13.6%	6.2%	1.8%	.299	3.88	9.4%	2.6%	106	+0.13	3.75	145	78
Nick Hagadone L 2015 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	22.6%	8.9%	2.4%	.329	3.74	22.6%	13.3%	33	+0.09	2.97	141	76
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	76
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	75
Matt Thornton L 2006 · 3.43 FIP	29	SU	3.43	21.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.263	2.61	27.2%	20.5%	196	-0.82	1.71	663	74
Darin Downs L 2014 · 3.78 FIP	29	SU	3.78	18.2%	11.5%	1.4%	.255	4.06	12.9%	8.7%	16	+0.28	2.83	107	73
Doug Slaten L 2008 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	13.6%	8.8%	2.7%	.264	3.63	19.2%	10.2%	57	-0.93	3.22	139	73
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	73
Tom Martin L 2000 · 4.16 FIP	30	SU	4.16	14.7%	9.1%	2.1%	.274	4.29	21.8%	12.3%	68	+0.12	3.40	303	72
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	72
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.76	239	72
Jimmy Reyes L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	28	SU	4.92	13.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.02	200	71
Edward Paredes L 2016 · 3.47 FIP	29	SU	3.47	24.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.225	3.55	23.7%	14.0%	86	+0.08	2.36	130	71
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	71