Thomas Ponticelli

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	39	9	71	4.04	4.18	20.5%	10.7%	—	K 17.0% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.82
2023	26	AAACLE	44	5	64	4.64	4.30	19.5%	9.9%	—	K 16.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.40
2024	27	AAACOL	10	8	28	14.96	10.55	7.4%	17.9%	—	K 6.4% · BB 16.1% · FIP 8.34
2027PROJ	30	MLBCOL	15	0	16	5.36	5.36	16.1%	11.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBCOL	7	0	7	5.38	5.46	16.4%	11.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMarco Carrillo (age 30) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30) · Murphy Smith (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%16.1%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	3	28	120	35	4	1	25%	2.4	20.1%	3.6%	16.5%	1.3%	2.54	2.59	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	3	28	120	35	4	1	25%	2.4	29.2%	3.3%	25.8%	0.8%	2.54	1.51	—
2019	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	24	12	92	412	73	46	15	50%	3.8	13.1%	13.2%	-0.1%	4.8%	5.07	6.29	—
2019	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	24	12	92	412	73	46	15	50%	3.8	17.7%	11.2%	6.6%	3.6%	5.07	5.13	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	12	91	377	82	32	8	43%	3.3	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	3.0%	2.96	4.50	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	12	91	377	82	32	8	43%	3.3	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	2.1%	2.96	3.49	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	9	71	308	63	33	8	23%	1.8	17.0%	11.6%	5.4%	3.1%	4.04	4.82	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	9	71	308	63	33	8	23%	1.8	20.5%	10.7%	9.7%	2.6%	4.04	4.18	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	44	5	64	293	57	29	8	11%	1.5	16.7%	8.9%	7.8%	2.9%	4.64	4.40	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	44	5	64	293	57	29	8	11%	1.5	19.5%	9.9%	9.6%	2.7%	4.64	4.30	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	10	8	28	162	12	29	11	80%	2.8	6.4%	16.1%	-9.7%	6.8%	14.96	8.34	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	10	8	28	162	12	29	11	80%	2.8	6.4%	16.1%	-9.7%	6.8%	14.96	8.34	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	10	8	28	162	12	29	11	80%	2.8	7.4%	17.9%	-10.5%	6.8%	14.96	10.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	COL	15	0	16	68	11	8	2	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.7%	4.4%	3.2%	5.36	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	0	20	84	14	10	3	0%	1.1	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	3.4%	5.38	5.46	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	COL	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	3.4%	5.38	5.46	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	5	4	1	0%	1.1	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	3.4%	5.38	5.08	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	109	27	0%	1.1	16.4%	11.8%	4.6%	3.4%	5.38	5.08	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		157	49	375	1672	255	183	61	31%	2.4	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	3.7%	4.82	5.22	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	26	200	892	136	98	33	31%	2.4	15.2%	10.9%	4.3%	3.7%	4.82	5.22	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Ponticelli (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	16.1%	11.7%	3.2%	—	5.46	16.4%	4.6%	20	+0.10	—	—	—
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	74
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	74
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	73
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	72
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	72
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	70
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	70
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	70
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	70
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	68
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	68
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	68
Fernando Villalobos R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	30	SU	5.33	8.3%	13.1%	2.3%	.365	4.36	11.4%	3.1%	109	-0.97	4.00	152	68
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	68
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	68
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	68
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	66
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	66
A.J. Achter R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	15.0%	11.0%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	174	66