Trey Riley

P Mississippi Braves

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	40	43	5.27	5.42	22.0%	15.9%	—	K 18.3% · BB 16.2% · FIP 6.12
2023	25	AAMississippi B…	42	49	4.07	3.74	26.1%	18.1%	—	K 21.1% · BB 20.0% · FIP 4.58
2024	26	AAMississippi B…	40	45	4.80	3.57	24.6%	13.5%	—	K 20.0% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.35
2027PROJ	29	MLBATL	25	26	4.70	4.70	22.1%	11.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBATL	8	8	4.77	4.84	21.9%	11.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%22.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	6	2	9	48	13	10	1	33%	1.5	27.1%	20.8%	6.2%	2.1%	8.00	4.60	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	6	2	9	48	13	10	1	33%	1.5	27.1%	20.8%	6.2%	2.1%	8.00	4.99	—
2019	21	A MLE	Rome Braves	17	12	59	286	41	46	4	71%	3.5	10.6%	19.0%	-8.4%	2.1%	7.67	5.78	—
2019	21	A RAW	Rome Braves	17	12	59	286	41	46	4	71%	3.5	14.3%	16.1%	-1.7%	1.4%	7.67	4.94	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	26	0	38	148	32	11	5	0%	1.5	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	4.9%	3.29	5.46	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	26	0	38	148	32	11	5	0%	1.5	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.4%	3.29	3.99	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	43	214	47	34	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	16.2%	2.0%	4.6%	5.27	6.12	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	43	214	47	34	7	0%	1.1	22.0%	15.9%	6.1%	3.3%	5.27	5.42	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	42	0	49	226	59	41	2	0%	1.2	21.1%	20.0%	1.2%	1.3%	4.07	4.58	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	42	0	49	226	59	41	2	0%	1.2	26.1%	18.1%	8.0%	0.9%	4.07	3.74	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	40	0	45	207	51	28	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.9%	5.1%	1.9%	4.80	4.35	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	40	0	45	207	51	28	3	0%	1.1	20.0%	14.9%	5.1%	1.9%	4.80	4.35	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	40	0	45	207	51	28	3	0%	1.1	24.6%	13.5%	11.1%	1.4%	4.80	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ATL	25	0	26	110	24	13	3	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.70	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ATL	23	0	25	104	23	12	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.84	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ATL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	7	4	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	104	26	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.77	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		171	14	242	1129	196	188	31	8%	1.4	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.31	5.25	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	12	200	932	162	155	26	8%	1.4	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	2.8%	5.31	5.25	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trey Riley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.1%	11.6%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.9%	10.2%	25	+0.14	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	87
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	78
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	78
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	77
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	76
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	76
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	22.0%	11.6%	1.18	4.73
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*