Jake Miller

P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+CLE	21	4	42	5.83	4.35	20.0%	8.6%	—	K 15.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.93
2025	25	MIX2 levels	42	2	66	2.86	3.19	20.7%	8.1%	—	K 17.0% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.63
2026	26	AAACLE	38	0	49	7.35	5.98	18.4%	13.9%	—	K 15.8% · BB 12.5% · FIP 6.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	57	0	60	5.30	5.30	15.7%	10.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCLE	24	0	25	5.25	5.28	16.3%	10.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCLE	31	0	33	5.28	5.34	16.6%	10.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Mike Adams (age 27) · Francisco Rodriguez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%15.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	9	9	34	137	43	10	7	100%	3.7	23.2%	8.6%	14.6%	6.5%	4.81	5.82	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	9	9	34	137	43	10	7	100%	3.7	31.4%	7.3%	24.1%	5.1%	4.81	4.14	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	5	20	80	14	9	1	62%	2.5	7.5%	18.0%	-10.5%	2.3%	3.15	6.02	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	5	20	80	14	9	1	62%	2.5	17.5%	11.2%	6.2%	1.2%	3.15	3.70	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	4	42	185	37	16	6	19%	2.0	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	3.4%	5.83	4.93	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	21	4	42	185	37	16	6	19%	2.0	15.4%	9.9%	5.5%	3.4%	5.83	4.93	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	21	4	42	185	37	16	6	19%	2.0	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	3.2%	5.83	4.35	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	2	66	270	56	22	4	5%	1.6	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	1.7%	2.86	3.63	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	2	66	270	56	22	4	5%	1.6	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	1.7%	2.86	3.63	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	2	66	270	56	22	4	5%	1.6	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	1.5%	2.86	3.19	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	38	0	49	223	41	31	10	0%	1.3	15.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.06	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	38	0	49	223	41	31	10	0%	1.3	15.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.9%	7.35	6.06	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	38	0	49	223	41	31	10	0%	1.3	18.4%	13.9%	4.5%	4.5%	7.35	5.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	57	0	60	253	40	26	9	0%	1.1	15.7%	10.1%	5.6%	3.4%	5.30	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	55	0	58	244	40	25	8	0%	1.0	16.3%	10.2%	6.1%	3.4%	5.25	5.28	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	52	0	55	233	39	24	8	0%	1.1	16.6%	10.3%	6.3%	3.6%	5.28	5.34	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	24	0	25	106	17	11	4	0%	1.0	16.3%	10.2%	6.1%	3.4%	5.25	5.28	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	31	0	33	139	23	14	5	0%	1.1	16.6%	10.3%	6.3%	3.6%	5.28	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	241	40	25	8	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.3%	6.2%	3.5%	5.27	4.94	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	88	28	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.3%	6.2%	3.5%	5.27	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		118	20	210	895	148	95	33	17%	1.8	16.5%	10.6%	5.9%	3.7%	4.84	5.05	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	19	200	851	140	90	31	17%	1.8	16.5%	10.6%	5.9%	3.7%	4.84	5.05	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	15.7%	10.1%	3.4%	—	5.31	16.5%	6.2%	113	+0.01	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	89
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	86
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	84
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	84
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	83
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	83
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	82
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	82
Scot Shields R 2002 · 4.27 FIP	27	SU	4.27	16.0%	10.6%	2.1%	.201	3.01	22.1%	15.0%	345	-1.26	2.77	686	82
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	82
Derek Self R 2017 · 4.89 FIP	27	SU	4.89	11.9%	6.7%	3.5%	.273	4.66	14.5%	10.7%	131	-0.23	3.82	302	82
Brian Bass R 2009 · 4.70 FIP	27	SU	4.70	13.5%	9.8%	2.8%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	176	82
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	81
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	81
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.2%	10.2%	1.34	5.28
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*