Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 31 | 133 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.0% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 2.59 | 3.36 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 31 | 133 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 2.59 | 2.27 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 67 | 297 | 86 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 0.6% | 1.74 | 2.85 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 67 | 297 | 86 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.0% | 8.4% | 20.5% | 0.3% | 1.74 | 1.85 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 31 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 59 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 3.50 | 3.56 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 31 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 59 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.7% | 5.9% | 25.8% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 2.94 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 59 | 1 | 63 | 270 | 72 | 25 | 13 | 2% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 5.74 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 59 | 1 | 63 | 270 | 72 | 25 | 13 | 2% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 4.8% | 5.74 | 4.70 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 63 | 290 | 67 | 30 | 7 | 2% | 1.6 | 19.3% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 6.61 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 1 | 63 | 290 | 67 | 30 | 7 | 2% | 1.6 | 23.1% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 6.61 | 3.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 32 | 2 | 43 | 209 | 47 | 34 | 9 | 6% | 1.3 | 19.8% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.75 | 6.19 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | KC | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 86 | 391 | 88 | 51 | 14 | — | — | 22.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.58 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | KC | — | — | 4 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 22.6% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.03 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 36 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | KC | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | KC | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | KC | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 4.83 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 59 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.39 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 85 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 223 | 4 | 310 | 1385 | 294 | 152 | 32 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 3.97 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 3 | 200 | 893 | 190 | 98 | 21 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.55 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Pérez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.76 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 113 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 83 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 83 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 82 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 81 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 81 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.16 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.23 | 2.51 | 190 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 80 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 80 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 80 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 80 |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.49 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.53 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.04 | 2.29 | 130 | 79 |
| Jake Diekman L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 79 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 78 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 77 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 76 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 76 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 75 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | .329 | 3.67 | 22.1% | 15.6% | 150 | -0.64 | 1.52 | 350 | 75 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 75 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .253 | 3.69 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 161 | -0.35 | 2.69 | 703 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 39 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 1.26 | 4.59 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |