Josh Winder

P St. Paul Saints

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX3 levels	21	17	85	4.76	4.88	16.8%	7.1%	0.0	K 16.1% · BB 6.9% · FIP 4.90
2023	26	MIX3 levels	40	0	70	4.89	3.89	23.6%	10.5%	0.6	K 21.0% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.17
2024	27	MIX3 levels	33	1	54	5.87	2.67	26.2%	5.6%	1.2	K 21.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 3.61
2027PROJ	30	MLBMIN	55	0	58	4.44	4.53	21.9%	9.1%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBMIN	19	0	20	4.63	4.76	21.1%	9.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBMIN	26	0	27	4.86	5.02	20.3%	9.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff44Control53Command42FB velo51

CompsElian Leyva (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.44

FIP4.53

K%21.9%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†5050

SL+1.0 (42%)

CH (23%)

SI (8%)

FB (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	9	9	39	157	42	6	1	100%	4.3	18.2%	4.8%	13.4%	0.9%	3.72	2.66	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	9	9	39	157	42	6	1	100%	4.3	26.8%	3.8%	22.9%	0.6%	3.72	1.73	—
2019	22	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	126	494	118	30	10	100%	6.0	17.7%	7.2%	10.5%	2.6%	2.65	3.96	—
2019	22	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	21	21	126	494	118	30	10	100%	6.0	23.9%	6.1%	17.8%	2.0%	2.65	2.97	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	72	275	80	13	9	100%	5.1	23.9%	5.1%	18.8%	3.4%	2.62	3.60	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	72	275	80	13	9	100%	5.1	29.1%	4.7%	24.4%	3.3%	2.62	3.04	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	17	85	364	61	26	15	81%	4.0	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	4.2%	4.76	4.90	-0.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	17	85	364	61	26	15	81%	4.0	16.8%	7.1%	9.6%	4.1%	4.76	4.88	+0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	70	314	74	33	8	0%	1.8	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	2.9%	4.89	4.17	+0.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	70	314	74	33	8	0%	1.8	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.5%	4.89	3.89	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	54	248	65	14	5	3%	1.6	21.1%	6.1%	15.0%	2.8%	5.87	3.61	+0.6
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	1	54	248	65	14	5	3%	1.6	21.1%	6.1%	15.0%	2.8%	5.87	3.61	+0.6
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	1	54	248	65	14	5	3%	1.6	26.2%	5.6%	20.6%	2.0%	5.87	2.67	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	11	111	472	85	33	14	29%	2.9	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.10	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	MIN	55	0	58	245	54	22	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.44	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIN	51	0	54	227	48	22	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.63	4.76	-0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIN	47	0	50	210	43	21	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	3.7%	4.86	5.02	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIN	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.63	4.76	-0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIN	26	0	27	114	23	11	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.9%	10.5%	3.7%	4.86	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		83	11	158	671	126	52	21	13%	1.9	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.22	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		105	14	200	850	160	66	27	13%	1.9	18.8%	7.8%	11.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		138	62	445	1852	358	129	55	45%	3.2	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	3.0%	3.88	3.97	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	28	200	832	161	58	25	45%	3.2	19.3%	6.9%	12.4%	3.0%	3.88	3.97	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Winder (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.9%	9.1%	3.2%	—	4.88	20.7%	11.1%	104	+0.35	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	74
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	70
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	70
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	68
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	67
Jared Fernandez R 2002 · 4.23 FIP	30	SP-	4.23	15.6%	10.0%	2.2%	.323	3.57	11.8%	5.6%	38	-0.66	3.57	101	66
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	66
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	65
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	65
Ross Ohlendorf R 2013 · 4.01 FIP	30	SW	4.01	18.2%	5.3%	3.2%	.265	4.18	23.5%	14.4%	122	+0.17	3.30	617	64
Eder Llamas R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	30	SW	4.12	11.4%	6.8%	2.0%	.301	3.23	11.3%	4.6%	64	-0.89	3.23	171	64
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	64
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	64
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	63
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	63
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	63
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	379	62
Todd Redmond R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SW	3.86	15.4%	7.1%	2.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	247	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	19.9%	8.5%	1.25	4.53
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*