Grant Lavigne
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 595 | .288/.385/.439 | 11 | 5 | 89 | — | .232/.308/.335 |
| 2023 | 23 | AACOL | 534 | .227/.352/.398 | 17 | 4 | 74 | — | .196/.288/.328 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAACOL | 530 | .243/.363/.426 | 18 | 9 | 76 | — | .205/.296/.332 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 258 | 206 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 350 | 479 | 519 | 998 | 170 | 410 | 16 | 17 | 443 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 526 | 440 | 104 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 68 | 129 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 236 | 350 | 327 | 677 | 91 | 314 | 25 | 13 | 311 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 139 | 111 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 368 | 342 | 710 | 117 | 319 | 28 | 16 | 325 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 308 | 260 | 73 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 73 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 281 | 389 | 442 | 831 | 162 | 365 | 24 | 13 | 371 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 242 | 208 | 51 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 349 | 370 | 719 | 125 | 333 | 27 | 13 | 327 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 282 | 241 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 315 | 409 | 469 | 877 | 154 | 418 | 24 | 13 | 388 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 71 | 61 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 328 | 414 | 557 | 972 | 230 | 432 | 24 | 11 | 418 | 169 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 534 | 445 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 77 | 142 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 352 | 398 | 750 | 171 | 291 | 27 | 14 | 339 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 530 | 441 | 107 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 73 | 143 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 243 | 363 | 426 | 789 | 184 | 312 | 27 | 14 | 351 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 258 | 224 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 277 | 370 | 406 | 776 | 129 | 343 | 22 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 526 | 469 | 81 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 178 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 173 | 250 | 230 | 480 | 58 | 253 | 34 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 139 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 294 | 263 | 557 | 76 | 309 | 39 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 308 | 273 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 102 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 216 | 301 | 315 | 616 | 99 | 322 | 33 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 242 | 217 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 299 | 323 | 621 | 101 | 322 | 33 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 282 | 252 | 61 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 242 | 315 | 345 | 661 | 103 | 361 | 33 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 534 | 470 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 164 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 288 | 328 | 616 | 132 | 265 | 31 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 530 | 464 | 95 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 175 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 205 | 296 | 332 | 628 | 127 | 288 | 33 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 258 | 224 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 277 | 370 | 406 | 776 | 129 | 352 | 22 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 258 | 206 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 350 | 479 | 519 | 998 | 170 | 410 | 16 | 17 | 443 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 526 | 469 | 81 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 178 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 173 | 250 | 230 | 480 | 58 | 261 | 34 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 526 | 440 | 104 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 68 | 129 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 236 | 350 | 327 | 677 | 91 | 314 | 25 | 13 | 311 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 390 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 157 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 213 | 305 | 315 | 621 | 103 | 335 | 35 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 447 | 371 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 61 | 112 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 264 | 382 | 412 | 795 | 148 | 352 | 25 | 14 | 357 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 531 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 198 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 232 | 308 | 335 | 644 | 104 | 350 | 33 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 595 | 510 | 147 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 76 | 151 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 288 | 385 | 439 | 824 | 151 | 386 | 25 | 13 | 367 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 534 | 470 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 164 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 288 | 328 | 616 | 132 | 267 | 31 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 534 | 445 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 77 | 142 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 352 | 398 | 750 | 171 | 291 | 27 | 14 | 339 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 530 | 464 | 95 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 175 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 205 | 296 | 332 | 628 | 127 | 294 | 33 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 530 | 441 | 107 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 73 | 143 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 243 | 363 | 426 | 789 | 184 | 312 | 27 | 14 | 351 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 258 | 223 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 278 | 370 | 408 | 778 | 130 | 343 | 22 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 526 | 473 | 81 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 178 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 171 | 250 | 228 | 478 | 57 | 253 | 34 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 447 | 392 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 157 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 212 | 305 | 314 | 619 | 102 | 318 | 35 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 595 | 531 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 198 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 232 | 308 | 335 | 644 | 104 | 343 | 33 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 534 | 468 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 164 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 197 | 288 | 329 | 617 | 132 | 265 | 31 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 530 | 465 | 95 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 175 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 204 | 296 | 331 | 627 | 127 | 288 | 33 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 530 | 465 | 95 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 50 | 175 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 204 | 296 | 331 | 627 | 127 | 288 | 33 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2890 | 2548 | 536 | 87 | 19 | 49 | 265 | 930 | 48 | 47 | 34 | 210 | 297 | 317 | 614 | 107 | 306 | 32 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -102 | -4 | +0 | -52 | +63 | -9.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 11 | 60 | 209 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 211 | 299 | 318 | 616 | 106 | 307 | 32 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -23 | -1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 530 PAwOBA .345 → .280 (−65)K% 27.0% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.40% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.82% | ÷0.990 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 22.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.03% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.033 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.04% | ÷1.096 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.99% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .345 → .280; ISO .184 → .133; BABIP .312 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 534 PAwOBA .331 → .277 (−53)K% 26.6% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.59% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.86% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.46% | ÷1.065 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 19.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 113, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .331 → .277; ISO .171 → .142; BABIP .291 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Spokane Indians · 282 PAwOBA .381 → .291 (−90)K% 24.1% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.11% | ÷0.975 | ×1.350 | — | — | 33.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.022 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.06% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×0.998 | 26.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.25% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×0.998 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.73% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | ×1.007 | ×0.998 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.316 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.82% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 108, 2B 96, 3B 91, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .381 → .291; ISO .154 → .109; BABIP .418 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 242 PAwOBA .320 → .274 (−47)K% 27.3% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.22% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.06% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 25.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.93% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 4.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | ×1.027 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷0.992 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.84% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .320 → .274; ISO .125 → .102; BABIP .333 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFresno Grizzlies · 308 PAwOBA .363 → .276 (−88)K% 23.7% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.70% | ÷0.972 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.20% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 24.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.95% | ÷1.057 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷1.218 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 126, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .363 → .276; ISO .162 → .108; BABIP .365 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Spokane Indians · 139 PAwOBA .322 → .258 (−64)K% 28.1% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.06% | ÷0.967 | ×1.350 | — | — | 39.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.83% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷0.966 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 23.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.211 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 1.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .322 → .258; ISO .117 → .089; BABIP .319 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAsheville Tourists · 526 PAwOBA .306 → .218 (−88)K% 24.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.52% | ÷0.968 | ×1.340 | — | — | 33.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.74% | ÷1.148 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.030 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.030 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.08% | ÷1.063 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 21.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.11% | ÷1.188 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.249 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.030 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 113, 2B 138, 3B 130, K 94, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .218; ISO .091 → .059; BABIP .314 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 258 PAwOBA .433 → .335 (−99)K% 15.5% → 22.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.008 | 10.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 26.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 5.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.008 | 2.73% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .433 → .335; ISO .170 → .131; BABIP .410 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .