J.P. Martínez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 28 | AAAATL | 438 | .233/.336/.350 | 6 | 37 | 53 | — | .193/.269/.279 |
| 2025 | 29 | INTLTomateros de … | 324 | .252/.378/.450 | 13 | 25 | 130 | — | |
| 2026 | 30 | INTLTomateros de … | 53 | .297/.490/.595 | 3 | 2 | 194 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 33 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 409 | 606 | 682 | 1.288 | 273 | 571 | 21 | 27 | 550 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 58 | 52 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 327 | 397 | 519 | 916 | 192 | 421 | 22 | 10 | 403 | 159 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 407 | 101 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 39 | 144 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 248 | 322 | 423 | 744 | 174 | 344 | 32 | 9 | 328 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 44 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 302 | 400 | 702 | 150 | 321 | 27 | 7 | 305 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 341 | 285 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 112 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 242 | 355 | 368 | 724 | 126 | 381 | 33 | 12 | 326 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 167 | 141 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 53 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 199 | 319 | 404 | 724 | 206 | 268 | 32 | 14 | 323 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 301 | 254 | 68 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 76 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 268 | 382 | 449 | 831 | 181 | 349 | 25 | 14 | 372 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | — | 44 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 262 | 325 | 587 | 100 | 320 | 36 | 5 | 252 | 54 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 353 | 289 | 86 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 81 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 298 | 420 | 543 | 963 | 246 | 367 | 23 | 16 | 419 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 15 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 400 | 273 | 673 | 91 | 286 | 27 | 27 | 332 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 438 | 377 | 88 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 118 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 233 | 336 | 350 | 686 | 117 | 322 | 27 | 12 | 313 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 324 | 262 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 66 | 3 | 25 | 6 | 252 | 378 | 450 | 828 | 198 | 286 | 20 | 15 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | INTL | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 53 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 297 | 490 | 595 | 1.085 | 297 | 308 | 17 | 23 | 454 | 194 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 44 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 262 | 325 | 587 | 100 | 320 | 36 | 5 | 252 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 22 | ROK MLE | DSL Rangers 1 | — | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 280 | 455 | 520 | 975 | 240 | 350 | 27 | 18 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 421 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 204 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 171 | 226 | 285 | 511 | 114 | 289 | 45 | 5 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 44 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 256 | 366 | 622 | 146 | 279 | 36 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 341 | 301 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 131 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 216 | 296 | 322 | 618 | 106 | 353 | 38 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 167 | 148 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 63 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 162 | 253 | 311 | 564 | 149 | 239 | 38 | 10 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 301 | 268 | 61 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 92 | 4 | 25 | 9 | 228 | 312 | 384 | 697 | 157 | 310 | 31 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB MLE | Texas Rangers | — | 44 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 262 | 325 | 587 | 100 | 320 | 36 | 5 | 249 | 54 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 353 | 306 | 73 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 101 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 239 | 334 | 415 | 749 | 176 | 316 | 29 | 11 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 231 | 497 | 77 | 259 | 33 | 13 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 438 | 394 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 193 | 269 | 279 | 548 | 86 | 289 | 34 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 236 | 396 | 361 | 757 | 125 | 340 | 26 | 19 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 91 | 74 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 351 | 473 | 568 | 1.040 | 216 | 462 | 22 | 16 | 456 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 462 | 81 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 220 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 175 | 229 | 292 | 521 | 117 | 300 | 44 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 500 | 447 | 111 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 42 | 156 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 248 | 320 | 421 | 740 | 172 | 342 | 31 | 8 | 326 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 341 | 301 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 131 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 216 | 296 | 322 | 618 | 106 | 367 | 38 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 341 | 285 | 69 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 112 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 242 | 355 | 368 | 724 | 126 | 381 | 33 | 12 | 326 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 416 | 83 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 154 | 5 | 39 | 9 | 200 | 287 | 351 | 638 | 151 | 284 | 33 | 10 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 468 | 395 | 96 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 67 | 129 | 5 | 39 | 9 | 243 | 360 | 433 | 793 | 190 | 323 | 28 | 14 | 355 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 412 | 358 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 122 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 232 | 324 | 388 | 713 | 156 | 317 | 30 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 412 | 340 | 97 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 61 | 101 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 285 | 403 | 509 | 912 | 224 | 360 | 25 | 15 | 398 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 438 | 394 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 193 | 269 | 279 | 548 | 86 | 295 | 34 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 438 | 377 | 88 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 53 | 118 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 233 | 336 | 350 | 686 | 117 | 322 | 27 | 12 | 313 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL MLE | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 324 | 262 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 66 | 3 | 25 | 6 | 252 | 378 | 450 | 828 | 198 | 286 | 20 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL RAW | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 324 | 262 | 66 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 66 | 3 | 25 | 6 | 252 | 378 | 450 | 828 | 198 | 286 | 20 | 15 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | INTL MLE | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 53 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 297 | 490 | 595 | 1.085 | 297 | 308 | 17 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 30 | INTL RAW | Tomateros de Culiacan | — | 53 | 37 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 297 | 490 | 595 | 1.085 | 297 | 308 | 17 | 23 | 454 | 194 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 236 | 396 | 361 | 757 | 125 | 350 | 26 | 19 | 363 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 500 | 464 | 81 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 220 | 5 | 32 | 13 | 175 | 229 | 291 | 520 | 116 | 288 | 44 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 341 | 304 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 131 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 214 | 296 | 319 | 615 | 105 | 353 | 38 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 468 | 414 | 83 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 154 | 5 | 39 | 9 | 200 | 287 | 353 | 640 | 152 | 285 | 33 | 10 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 412 | 360 | 83 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 122 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 231 | 324 | 386 | 710 | 156 | 314 | 30 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 438 | 394 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 193 | 269 | 279 | 548 | 86 | 289 | 34 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 438 | 394 | 76 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 148 | 5 | 37 | 8 | 193 | 269 | 279 | 548 | 86 | 289 | 34 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 262 | 325 | 587 | 100 | 320 | 36 | 5 | 252 | 42 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 133 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 236 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 263 | 327 | 589 | 102 | 319 | 36 | 5 | 252 | 42 | -33 | +0 | -22 | -65 | +14 | -10.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2627 | 2302 | 482 | 88 | 26 | 57 | 257 | 874 | 36 | 199 | 45 | 209 | 299 | 344 | 643 | 135 | 307 | 33 | 10 | 231 | 42 | -2 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +1 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 570 | 119 | 22 | 6 | 14 | 64 | 216 | 9 | 49 | 11 | 209 | 299 | 342 | 641 | 133 | 306 | 33 | 10 | 231 | 42 | -33 | +0 | -22 | -65 | +14 | -10.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 438 PAwOBA .307 → .246 (−61)K% 26.9% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.94% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.10% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.39% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×0.992 | 20.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.49% | ÷0.961 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.992 | 7.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×0.992 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.32% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.66% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .307 → .246; ISO .117 → .089; BABIP .322 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARound Rock Express · 353 PAwOBA .411 → .325 (−85)K% 22.9% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.95% | ÷0.964 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.58% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.60% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.973 | ×1.003 | 20.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷1.044 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.003 | 7.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.918 | ×0.970 | ×0.973 | ×1.003 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.73% | ÷1.035 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 4.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .411 → .325; ISO .246 → .184; BABIP .367 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 15 PAwOBA .300 → .262 (−37)K% 26.7% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 13.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 12.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 13.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .300 → .262; ISO .091 → .099; BABIP .286 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 301 PAwOBA .363 → .300 (−63)K% 25.2% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.25% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.84% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.93% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 3.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.37% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 3.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.06% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.37% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .363 → .300; ISO .181 → .160; BABIP .349 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAARound Rock Express · 167 PAwOBA .315 → .251 (−64)K% 31.7% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.74% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.37% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.77% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 13.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.95% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 2.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.957 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .251; ISO .206 → .164; BABIP .268 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 341 PAwOBA .318 → .268 (−51)K% 32.8% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.84% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷1.098 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷1.006 | ×0.940 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 25.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷0.957 | ×0.870 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 6.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.31% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.998 | 2.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.114 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.02% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .318 → .268; ISO .126 → .107; BABIP .381 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 456 PAwOBA .322 → .225 (−97)K% 31.6% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.58% | ÷1.002 | ×1.420 | — | — | 44.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.55% | ÷0.985 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.57% | ÷1.038 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.98% | ÷0.939 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.32% | ÷1.152 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 4.15% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .322 → .225; ISO .174 → .119; BABIP .344 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AHickory Crawdads · 44 PAwOBA .303 → .233 (−70)K% 27.3% → 36.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.997 | ×1.340 | — | — | 36.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.82% | ÷0.955 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 22.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.106 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 2.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.907 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.990 | 3.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.183 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 107, 2B 121, 3B 81, K 99, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .233; ISO .150 → .112; BABIP .321 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .