Eric Orze

P Minnesota Twins

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	45	63	3.41	3.83	31.7%	12.3%	0.5	K 28.1% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.88
2025	27	MIX2 levels	57	70	2.69	3.58	26.5%	9.6%	0.8	K 24.7% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.52
2026	28	MIX2 levels	55	64	4.48	3.19	20.7%	8.1%	1.0	K 19.7% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIN	63	66	4.15	4.26	21.8%	9.7%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBMIN	56	59	4.34	4.47	21.3%	10.0%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBMIN	52	55	4.54	4.69	20.7%	10.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs49

K%28

FB Velo26

Whiff%25

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Walker (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.15

FIP4.26

K%21.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

SL (14%)

CU (9%)

FB (26%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	50	202	67	14	5	0%	1.5	26.9%	7.6%	19.3%	3.1%	3.08	3.47	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	50	202	67	14	5	0%	1.5	33.2%	6.9%	26.2%	2.5%	3.08	2.56	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	50	208	69	13	11	0%	1.5	28.6%	6.9%	21.7%	5.9%	4.83	4.83	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	50	208	69	13	11	0%	1.5	33.2%	6.2%	26.9%	5.3%	4.83	3.97	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	39	1	61	272	81	41	6	3%	1.6	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.4%	5.31	3.98	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	39	1	61	272	81	41	6	3%	1.6	29.8%	15.1%	14.7%	2.2%	5.31	3.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	0%	1.4	28.1%	10.9%	17.3%	3.2%	3.41	3.88	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	0%	1.4	28.1%	10.9%	17.3%	3.2%	3.41	3.88	+0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	0%	1.4	31.7%	12.3%	19.4%	3.4%	3.41	3.83	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	2.4%	2.69	3.52	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	2.4%	2.69	3.52	+0.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	0%	1.2	26.5%	9.6%	16.8%	2.7%	2.69	3.58	+0.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	64	270	56	22	4	0%	1.2	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	1.6%	4.48	3.33	+0.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	64	270	56	22	4	0%	1.2	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	1.6%	4.48	3.33	+0.9
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	64	270	56	22	4	0%	1.2	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	1.5%	4.48	3.19	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	0	85	378	77	39	6	0%	1.2	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	1.6%	4.68	3.58	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIN	63	0	66	279	61	27	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	59	0	62	262	56	26	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.47	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIN	55	0	58	244	50	25	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.69	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	56	0	59	249	53	25	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.47	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIN	52	0	55	232	48	24	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	198	859	178	88	20	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	2.3%	4.54	3.91	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	0	200	865	179	89	20	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	2.3%	4.54	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		264	1	359	1511	384	144	45	0%	1.4	25.4%	9.6%	15.8%	3.0%	3.94	3.81	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	842	214	80	25	0%	1.4	25.4%	9.6%	15.8%	3.0%	3.94	3.81	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eric Orze (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	21.8%	9.7%	2.5%	—	4.58	21.0%	10.9%	120	+0.32	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	85
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	82
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Matt Lindstrom R 2009 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	17.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.320	3.16	17.7%	11.7%	154	-0.96	2.40	443	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	80
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	80
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	80
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	79
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	21.0%	10.3%	0.92	4.44
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Chris Resop ('13)	1.2	61	18.6%	10.3%	0.85	4.62
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*