Cruz Noriega

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	A+KC	20	6	66	3.12	3.02	20.5%	5.1%	—	K 15.8% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.73
2024	26	AANorthwest Ark…	32	9	76	6.01	3.55	22.2%	6.4%	—	K 18.0% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.43
2025	27	MIX2 levels	27	1	39	9.92	5.59	21.1%	12.9%	—	K 17.6% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.70
2027PROJ	29	MLBKC	27	0	28	4.94	4.94	19.0%	10.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBKC	8	0	8	4.99	5.06	19.1%	10.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%19.0%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	14	3	32	140	30	6	0	21%	2.3	14.6%	5.4%	9.2%	0.0%	4.18	2.55	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	14	3	32	140	30	6	0	21%	2.3	21.4%	4.3%	17.1%	0.0%	4.18	1.80	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	13	5	44	196	37	17	2	38%	3.4	12.8%	10.8%	2.0%	1.4%	5.11	4.17	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	13	5	44	196	37	17	2	38%	3.4	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	1.0%	5.11	3.17	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	73	301	81	14	7	68%	3.9	19.5%	5.3%	14.2%	2.6%	4.05	3.53	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	73	301	81	14	7	68%	3.9	26.9%	4.7%	22.3%	2.3%	4.05	2.70	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	20	6	66	273	56	14	5	30%	3.3	15.8%	5.9%	9.9%	2.2%	3.12	3.73	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	20	6	66	273	56	14	5	30%	3.3	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	1.8%	3.12	3.02	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	32	9	76	329	73	21	9	28%	2.4	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.6%	6.01	4.43	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	32	9	76	329	73	21	9	28%	2.4	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.6%	6.01	4.43	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	32	9	76	329	73	21	9	28%	2.4	22.2%	6.4%	15.8%	2.7%	6.01	3.55	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	194	41	25	8	4%	1.4	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	4.6%	9.92	5.70	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	194	41	25	8	4%	1.4	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	4.6%	9.92	5.70	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	39	194	41	25	8	4%	1.4	21.1%	12.9%	8.2%	4.1%	9.92	5.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	KC	27	0	28	118	22	12	4	0%	1.0	19.0%	10.2%	8.8%	3.2%	4.94	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	KC	25	0	26	112	21	12	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.4%	4.99	5.06	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	KC	8	0	8	34	6	4	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.4%	4.99	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	35	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.4%	4.99	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	96	24	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.4%	8.7%	3.4%	4.99	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		125	37	331	1433	241	108	37	30%	2.7	16.8%	7.6%	9.2%	2.6%	5.16	4.06	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	22	200	865	145	65	22	30%	2.7	16.8%	7.6%	9.2%	2.6%	5.16	4.06	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cruz Noriega (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	19.0%	10.2%	3.2%	—	5.06	19.1%	8.7%	26	+0.12	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	77
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	77
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	74
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	73
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	71
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	71
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	70
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	70
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	70
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	69
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	69
Lindsey Caughel R 2018 · 5.12 FIP	27	SW	5.12	13.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	187	68
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	68
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	68
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	68
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	19.1%	10.3%	1.28	4.96
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*