Jose Acosta
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+/A2 orgs | 321 | .219/.301/.391 | 10 | 14 | 46 | — | .178/.244/.325 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+MIL | 178 | .225/.283/.419 | 5 | 5 | 36 | — | .178/.225/.325 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+/A2 orgs | 131 | .222/.295/.274 | 1 | 14 | 23 | — | .181/.233/.232 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 168 | 141 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 199 | 323 | 284 | 607 | 85 | 241 | 17 | 14 | 286 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 234 | 195 | 77 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 41 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 395 | 485 | 579 | 1.064 | 185 | 484 | 18 | 13 | 457 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 142 | 132 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 250 | 288 | 386 | 674 | 136 | 341 | 31 | 3 | 294 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 118 | 101 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 257 | 364 | 376 | 741 | 119 | 362 | 26 | 10 | 340 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 248 | 218 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 73 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 216 | 296 | 372 | 668 | 156 | 281 | 29 | 10 | 295 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 73 | 61 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 230 | 319 | 459 | 778 | 230 | 316 | 29 | 10 | 323 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 178 | 160 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 225 | 283 | 419 | 702 | 194 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 301 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 33 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 143 | 393 | 235 | 33 | 9 | 195 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 27 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 435 | 742 | 217 | 200 | 7 | 11 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 71 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 258 | 310 | 273 | 583 | 15 | 327 | 20 | 7 | 271 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 168 | 148 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 35 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 128 | 228 | 169 | 396 | 41 | 161 | 21 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 234 | 207 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 59 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 280 | 349 | 396 | 745 | 116 | 364 | 25 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 142 | 133 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 203 | 237 | 308 | 546 | 105 | 318 | 42 | 2 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 118 | 105 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 210 | 297 | 305 | 601 | 95 | 321 | 35 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 248 | 224 | 38 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 95 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 170 | 235 | 299 | 534 | 129 | 239 | 38 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 73 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 275 | 413 | 688 | 206 | 279 | 38 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 178 | 163 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 178 | 225 | 325 | 551 | 147 | 228 | 34 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 33 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 219 | 138 | 357 | 225 | 39 | 6 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 27 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 417 | 686 | 208 | 168 | 11 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 71 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 191 | 225 | 206 | 431 | 15 | 269 | 27 | 4 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 168 | 148 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 35 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 128 | 228 | 169 | 396 | 41 | 167 | 21 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 168 | 141 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 199 | 323 | 284 | 607 | 85 | 241 | 17 | 14 | 286 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 234 | 207 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 59 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 280 | 349 | 396 | 745 | 116 | 378 | 25 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Reds | — | 234 | 195 | 77 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 41 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 395 | 485 | 579 | 1.064 | 185 | 484 | 18 | 13 | 457 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 260 | 238 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 101 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 202 | 261 | 303 | 563 | 101 | 328 | 39 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 260 | 233 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 75 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 253 | 323 | 382 | 705 | 129 | 351 | 29 | 6 | 315 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 287 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 123 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 171 | 237 | 303 | 540 | 132 | 259 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 321 | 279 | 61 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 94 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 219 | 301 | 391 | 692 | 172 | 288 | 29 | 10 | 301 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 178 | 163 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 178 | 225 | 325 | 551 | 147 | 250 | 34 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 178 | 160 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 225 | 283 | 419 | 702 | 194 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 301 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 131 | 120 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 175 | 233 | 217 | 449 | 42 | 238 | 27 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 131 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 222 | 295 | 274 | 568 | 51 | 281 | 21 | 8 | 261 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 168 | 147 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 35 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 129 | 228 | 170 | 398 | 41 | 161 | 21 | 10 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 234 | 210 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 59 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 276 | 349 | 390 | 740 | 114 | 364 | 25 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 260 | 239 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 101 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 201 | 261 | 301 | 562 | 100 | 319 | 39 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 321 | 293 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 123 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 167 | 237 | 297 | 534 | 130 | 248 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 178 | 166 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 175 | 225 | 319 | 545 | 145 | 228 | 34 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 131 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 174 | 233 | 215 | 447 | 41 | 237 | 27 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 131 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 174 | 233 | 215 | 447 | 41 | 237 | 27 | 6 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1292 | 1163 | 224 | 42 | 11 | 19 | 85 | 413 | 19 | 85 | 25 | 193 | 259 | 297 | 556 | 104 | 278 | 32 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -76 | +7 | +0 | +5 | +28 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 113 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 208 | 10 | 43 | 13 | 193 | 261 | 301 | 561 | 108 | 278 | 32 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -38 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 71 PAwOBA .264 → .200 (−64)K% 19.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.72% | ÷1.013 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.04% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.980 | 25.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.92% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×0.980 | 1.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.101 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 113, 2B 92, 3B 101, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .264 → .200; ISO .015 → .012; BABIP .327 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 33 PAwOBA .191 → .162 (−30)K% 33.3% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.989 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 22.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.198 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 94, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .191 → .162; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .235 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 27 PAwOBA .308 → .259 (−50)K% 7.4% → 9.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.41% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 9.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 8.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.991 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.84% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .259; ISO .217 → .187; BABIP .200 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 178 PAwOBA .294 → .222 (−73)K% 25.3% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.28% | ÷0.955 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.62% | ÷1.024 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.65% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 13.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.966 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.033 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.36% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .294 → .222; ISO .194 → .141; BABIP .279 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 248 PAwOBA .289 → .231 (−59)K% 29.4% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.44% | ÷0.977 | ×1.270 | — | — | 38.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.38% | ÷1.083 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.14% | ÷1.049 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.52% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.05% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 117, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .289 → .231; ISO .156 → .129; BABIP .281 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 73 PAwOBA .314 → .257 (−57)K% 28.8% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.77% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.59% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | — | 14.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | — | 8.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | — | 4.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .314 → .257; ISO .230 → .191; BABIP .316 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 142 PAwOBA .288 → .234 (−54)K% 31.0% → 42.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.99% | ÷0.990 | ×1.350 | — | — | 42.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.82% | ÷0.964 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 2.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.024 | ×0.910 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 25.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 3.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.044 | ×1.027 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 4.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .288 → .234; ISO .136 → .111; BABIP .341 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 118 PAwOBA .332 → .258 (−74)K% 26.3% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.27% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.17% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 3.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 20.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.86% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 10.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.996 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.17% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 114, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .332 → .258; ISO .119 → .091; BABIP .362 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).