Nick Kuzia prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Kuzia P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%20.5%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	16	0	21	99	24	12	2	0%	1.3	16.5%	15.2%	1.3%	2.8%	4.35	5.18	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	16	0	21	99	24	12	2	0%	1.3	24.2%	12.1%	12.1%	2.0%	4.35	3.78	—
2018	22	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	0	7	26	4	1	3	0%	3.3	15.4%	3.8%	11.5%	11.5%	4.05	8.62	—
2018	22	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	2	0	7	26	4	1	3	0%	3.3	15.4%	3.8%	11.5%	11.5%	4.05	8.20	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	60	270	62	26	11	0%	1.6	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	4.3%	4.65	5.35	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	60	270	62	26	11	0%	1.6	23.0%	9.6%	13.3%	4.1%	4.65	4.72	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	53	219	71	26	5	0%	1.3	25.3%	12.6%	12.7%	3.6%	3.42	4.54	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	53	219	71	26	5	0%	1.3	32.4%	11.9%	20.5%	2.3%	3.42	3.12	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	56	255	54	30	6	2%	1.4	18.0%	13.9%	4.0%	3.5%	4.98	5.28	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	56	255	54	30	6	2%	1.4	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.4%	4.98	4.17	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	45	0	55	248	51	29	5	0%	1.2	16.7%	12.9%	3.8%	2.3%	5.24	4.60	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	45	0	55	248	51	29	5	0%	1.2	16.7%	12.9%	3.8%	2.3%	5.24	4.60	—
2023	27	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	45	0	55	248	51	29	5	0%	1.2	20.6%	11.7%	8.9%	2.0%	5.24	4.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.5%	10.9%	9.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	COL	33	0	35	147	30	16	5	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.91	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	COL	10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	9	5	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	92	18	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		182	1	251	1117	210	141	40	1%	1.4	18.8%	12.6%	6.2%	3.6%	4.55	5.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	1	200	890	168	112	32	1%	1.4	18.8%	12.6%	6.2%	3.6%	4.55	5.07	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Kuzia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	20.5%	10.9%	3.0%	—	4.91	20.4%	9.3%	35	+0.15	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	91
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	91
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	89
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	88
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	85
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	83
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	82
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	77
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	76
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	76
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	75
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	75
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	75
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	75
Greg Burke R 2013 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	17.9%	8.3%	1.9%	.357	3.61	22.1%	14.8%	62	-0.09	3.61	139	75
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	20.5%	11.0%	1.19	4.79
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71