Josh Walker

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 32 LHP 6'6" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	43	50	4.32	3.64	27.9%	12.8%	0.5	K 24.7% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.97
2025	30	MIX2 levels	43	48	4.91	4.11	25.0%	9.9%	0.2	K 20.7% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.90
2026	31	MIX2 levels	55	62	2.92	3.04	25.4%	7.7%	1.1	K 23.5% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	32	MLBBAL	30	31	3.97	4.18	22.1%	8.5%	0.1
2028PROJ84% MLB	33	MLBBAL	28	29	4.28	4.48	21.4%	9.0%	0.0
2029PROJ80% MLB	34	MLBBAL	18	19	4.57	4.77	20.7%	9.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs90

K%54

FB Velo29

Form1.29 ERA (proj 3.97) · K 24.1% (proj 22.1%) · BB 11.5% (proj 8.5%) · last 90d · 21 IP through Oct 27

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Hideki Okajima (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 113

ERA3.97

FIP4.18

K%22.1%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p5423.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.255

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	14	0	14	71	13	6	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	10.6%	1.9%	2.0%	9.42	4.47	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	14	0	14	71	13	6	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.5%	9.9%	1.4%	9.42	3.45	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	3	0	9	35	12	0	0	0%	3.0	34.3%	0.0%	34.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.20	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	3	0	9	35	12	0	0	0%	3.0	34.3%	0.0%	34.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	—
2019	24	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	1	1	3	13	2	0	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.80	—
2019	24	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	1	1	3	13	2	0	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.77	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	116	455	98	29	9	95%	5.5	17.8%	6.9%	10.9%	2.3%	3.73	3.71	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	116	455	98	29	9	95%	5.5	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	2.0%	3.73	3.17	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	2	22	96	38	11	2	15%	1.7	30.2%	11.0%	19.2%	3.2%	4.91	3.68	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	2	22	96	38	11	2	15%	1.7	39.6%	11.5%	28.1%	2.1%	4.91	2.33	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	39	168	52	18	3	0%	1.1	28.7%	9.0%	19.7%	0.9%	3.43	2.32	+1.1
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	39	168	52	18	3	0%	1.1	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.8%	3.43	2.82	+0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	219	61	28	5	0%	1.2	24.7%	11.8%	12.9%	2.7%	4.32	3.97	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	219	61	28	5	0%	1.2	24.7%	11.8%	12.9%	2.7%	4.32	3.97	+0.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	50	219	61	28	5	0%	1.2	27.9%	12.8%	15.1%	2.3%	4.32	3.64	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	212	53	21	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	4.4%	4.91	4.90	-0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	212	53	21	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.1%	11.6%	4.4%	4.91	4.90	-0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	48	212	53	21	7	0%	1.1	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	3.3%	4.91	4.11	+0.2
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	62	248	63	19	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.1%	2.92	3.20	+1.0
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	62	248	63	19	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.3%	16.2%	2.1%	2.92	3.20	+1.0
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	62	248	63	19	5	0%	1.1	25.4%	7.7%	17.7%	2.0%	2.92	3.04	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			58	0	58	254	60	24	5	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.4%	14.2%	2.0%	4.21	3.39	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	BAL	30	0	31	131	29	11	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.5%	13.7%	2.7%	3.97	4.18	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	32	0	34	144	31	13	4	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.48	+0.0
2029	34	MLB MLE	BAL	23	0	24	102	21	10	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.77	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	28	0	29	122	26	11	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.28	4.48	+0.0
2029	34	MLB CTX	BAL	18	0	19	80	17	8	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.5%	11.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	0	105	456	103	43	11	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	2.5%	4.30	3.75	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	0	200	864	195	82	21	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.3%	13.2%	2.5%	4.30	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		228	23	363	1517	337	128	37	10%	1.6	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	2.4%	4.02	3.61	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	13	200	837	186	70	20	10%	1.6	22.2%	8.4%	13.8%	2.4%	4.02	3.61	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 31 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.40 (+0.37)K% 27.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.87%	—	×0.860	23.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.38%	—	×0.900	6.64%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 43 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.90 (+0.49)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.06%	—	×0.860	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×0.900	9.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.74%	÷0.945	×1.100	4.36%

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 38 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.04 (+0.47)K% 30.5% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.49%	—	×0.860	26.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.41%	—	×0.900	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.909	×1.100	2.95%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 29 IPFIP 2.01 → 2.32 (+0.31)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×0.900	9.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.83%	÷1.003	×1.100	0.91%

Result: FIP 2.01 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 14 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.68 (+0.52)K% 34.3% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.33%	—	×0.880	30.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.050	10.97%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.033	×1.100	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 7 IPFIP 0.57 → 1.89 (+1.33)K% 48.0% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	48.00%	—	×0.740	35.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.180	14.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.57 → 1.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 50 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.48 (+0.30)K% 16.0% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.02%	—	×0.880	14.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.74%	—	×1.050	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.57%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 44 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.15 (+0.65)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.810	20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.12%	—	×1.100	4.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.995	×1.200	2.13%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Walker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	22.1%	8.5%	2.7%	—	4.60	21.1%	11.9%	58	+0.42	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	85
Hideki Okajima L 2008 · 3.49 FIP	32	SU	3.49	23.3%	8.5%	2.3%	.253	4.09	18.4%	11.4%	107	+0.60	3.05	238	82
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	77
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	77
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	76
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	75
Mike Myers L 2001 · 3.22 FIP	32	SU	3.22	21.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.263	4.20	15.7%	5.5%	116	+0.98	3.22	533	74
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	73
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	72
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	72
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	71
Clay Rapada L 2012 · 3.00 FIP	31	SU	3.00	24.5%	10.3%	1.2%	.273	3.84	14.3%	6.3%	44	+0.84	3.00	120	71
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	70
Grant Dayton L 2020 · 3.75 FIP	32	SU	3.75	27.4%	8.5%	3.4%	.254	3.84	23.2%	13.8%	62	+0.09	1.63	277	69
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	69
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	67
Pedro Feliciano L 2009 · 3.36 FIP	32	SU	3.36	24.4%	5.8%	2.9%	.272	2.69	20.0%	11.4%	63	-0.67	2.69	378	67
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	67
James Jones L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	32	SU	5.35	23.0%	11.4%	5.0%	.315	4.25	18.1%	3.1%	36	-1.10	3.58	127	67
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	39	22.3%	9.4%	1.01	4.22
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69
Scott Oberg ('19)	1.3	51	21.5%	9.3%	0.91	3.85
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*