Josh Walker — OGILVIE

Josh Walker P Norfolk Tides

Age 31 LHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 112

ERA3.95

FIP4.12

K%22.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2792.9

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p900.249

SI (7%)

CU (53%)

SL (53%)

FB-1.3 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	14	0	14	71	13	6	1	0%	1.0	12.5%	10.6%	1.9%	2.0%	9.42	4.47	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	14	0	14	71	13	6	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	8.5%	9.9%	1.4%	9.42	3.45	—
2018	23	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	3	0	9	35	12	0	0	0%	3.0	34.3%	0.0%	34.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.20	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	3	0	9	35	12	0	0	0%	3.0	34.3%	0.0%	34.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.43	—
2019	24	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	1	1	3	13	2	0	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.80	—
2019	24	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	1	1	3	13	2	0	0	100%	3.0	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	0.0%	6.00	1.77	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	116	455	98	29	9	95%	5.5	17.8%	6.9%	10.9%	2.3%	3.73	3.71	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	116	455	98	29	9	95%	5.5	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	2.0%	3.73	3.17	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	2	22	96	38	11	2	15%	1.7	30.2%	11.0%	19.2%	3.2%	4.91	3.68	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	2	22	96	38	11	2	15%	1.7	39.6%	11.5%	28.1%	2.1%	4.91	2.33	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	39	168	52	18	3	0%	1.1	27.7%	9.0%	18.7%	0.9%	3.43	2.41	+1.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	39	168	52	18	3	0%	1.1	27.7%	9.0%	18.7%	0.9%	3.43	2.41	+1.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	39	168	52	18	3	0%	1.1	31.0%	10.7%	20.2%	1.8%	3.43	2.82	+0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	219	61	28	5	0%	1.2	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	2.7%	4.32	4.03	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	50	219	61	28	5	0%	1.2	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	2.7%	4.32	4.03	+0.3
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	50	219	61	28	5	0%	1.2	27.9%	12.8%	15.1%	2.3%	4.32	3.64	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	212	53	21	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.1%	10.8%	4.4%	4.91	4.96	-0.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	48	212	53	21	7	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.1%	10.8%	4.4%	4.91	4.96	-0.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	48	212	53	21	7	0%	1.1	25.0%	9.9%	15.1%	3.3%	4.91	4.11	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	0	52	231	55	20	5	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.2%	2.2%	4.30	3.39	+0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	49	0	56	225	58	15	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	6.3%	16.9%	2.3%	2.88	3.21	+0.9
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	49	0	56	225	58	15	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	6.3%	16.9%	2.3%	2.88	3.21	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	BAL	24	0	31	122	34	9	3	0%	1.3	27.9%	7.4%	20.5%	2.5%	3.73	3.03	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	BAL	25	0	25	103	24	6	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	5.8%	17.5%	1.9%	1.80	2.94	+0.5
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	BAL	25	0	25	103	24	6	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	5.8%	17.5%	1.9%	1.80	2.94	+0.5
ROS	31	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.2%	3.95	4.12	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.2%	3.95	4.12	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	62	250	64	17	6	—	—	25.4%	6.9%	18.5%	2.3%	2.98	3.29	+1.0
FULL	31	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	31	130	64	17	6	—	—	48.8%	13.3%	35.5%	4.4%	6.00	3.10	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BAL	120	0	126	530	113	50	17	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.65	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	BAL	110	0	115	486	100	47	17	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.72	4.90	-0.5
2027	32	MLB CTX	BAL	113	0	119	502	107	47	16	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.4%	11.9%	3.2%	4.48	4.65	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BAL	104	0	109	460	95	45	16	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.5%	4.72	4.90	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		275	0	287	1221	263	115	38	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.19	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	851	183	80	27	0%	1.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	3.1%	4.53	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		222	23	357	1494	326	124	37	10%	1.6	21.8%	8.3%	13.6%	2.4%	4.03	3.65	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	13	200	836	183	69	20	10%	1.6	21.8%	8.3%	13.6%	2.4%	4.03	3.65	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Walker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.8%	10.2%	3.2%	—	4.77	21.0%	11.4%	241	+0.09	—	—	—
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	79
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	79
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	76
Fernando Abad L 2017 · 3.53 FIP	31	SU	3.53	20.3%	7.1%	2.2%	.281	2.37	23.3%	21.0%	44	-1.16	2.37	306	76
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	76
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	75
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	72
Marc Rzepczynski L 2017 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	18.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.284	5.47	15.5%	1.4%	67	+1.70	2.73	181	72
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	71
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	70
Josh Edgin L 2018 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	29.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	113	70
Justin Wilson L 2019 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	26.5%	10.8%	2.4%	.290	4.05	22.1%	12.0%	54	+0.49	2.49	420	70
Ryan Buchter L 2018 · 3.54 FIP	31	SU	3.54	25.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.269	4.95	24.3%	12.6%	78	+1.41	2.37	296	69
Colt Hynes L 2016 · 3.55 FIP	31	SU	3.55	22.3%	4.8%	3.1%	.353	3.75	14.1%	9.5%	56	+0.20	3.42	152	69
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	68
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	67
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	66
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	29	SU	4.16	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.92	23.7%	16.1%	146	-1.24	2.79	473	66
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	125	21.3%	9.8%	1.28	4.56
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24