Rio Gomez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Rio Gomez P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%22.2%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	13	1	27	115	25	5	0	8%	2.1	14.8%	5.4%	9.3%	0.0%	1.98	2.54	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	13	1	27	115	25	5	0	8%	2.1	21.7%	4.3%	17.4%	0.0%	1.98	1.82	—
2018	23	A MLE	Greenville Drive	7	0	8	36	10	2	2	0%	1.2	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	5.6%	3.24	4.51	—
2018	23	A RAW	Greenville Drive	7	0	8	36	10	2	2	0%	1.2	27.8%	5.6%	22.2%	5.6%	3.24	4.54	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	282	75	23	8	0%	1.8	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.3%	2.20	4.41	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	70	282	75	23	8	0%	1.8	26.6%	8.2%	18.4%	2.8%	2.20	3.43	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	47	195	60	13	4	0%	1.6	25.2%	8.2%	17.0%	2.5%	3.64	3.38	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	47	195	60	13	4	0%	1.6	30.8%	6.7%	24.1%	2.1%	3.64	2.48	—
2022	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	24	2	33	153	41	16	8	8%	1.4	21.7%	11.5%	10.2%	6.2%	6.55	6.15	—
2022	27	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	24	2	33	153	41	16	8	8%	1.4	26.8%	10.5%	16.3%	5.2%	6.55	5.22	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	13	76	345	88	43	14	50%	2.9	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	4.5%	4.95	5.24	—
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	13	76	345	88	43	14	50%	2.9	21.6%	11.9%	9.7%	4.5%	4.95	5.24	—
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	13	76	345	88	43	14	50%	2.9	25.5%	12.5%	13.0%	4.1%	4.95	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	10.7%	11.6%	3.1%	4.68	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	44	0	46	194	42	21	7	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	3.4%	4.78	4.87	-0.2
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	40	0	42	178	38	20	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	3.6%	4.94	5.08	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	16	0	17	72	16	8	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	3.4%	4.78	4.87	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	22	0	23	97	21	11	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	3.6%	4.94	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	0	40	170	37	19	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.87	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	95	30	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.5%	4.87	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		138	16	262	1126	240	109	41	12%	1.9	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	3.7%	3.82	4.53	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	12	200	861	184	84	31	12%	1.9	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	3.7%	3.82	4.53	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rio Gomez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	22.2%	10.7%	3.1%	—	4.97	21.7%	10.6%	88	+0.29	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	91
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	84
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	80
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	77
Nick Hagadone L 2017 · 3.74 FIP	31	SU	3.74	22.6%	9.3%	2.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	141	76
George Sherrill L 2008 · 3.86 FIP	31	SU	3.86	24.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.277	3.38	20.6%	12.4%	141	-0.48	2.74	323	75
Randy Flores L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	31	SU	4.00	20.4%	9.7%	2.5%	.333	3.30	18.1%	10.5%	93	-0.70	2.51	250	75
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	73
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	73
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	72
David Purcey L 2013 · 3.79 FIP	31	SU	3.79	20.4%	11.5%	1.7%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	206	71
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	239	70
Cory Luebke L 2016 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	26.4%	9.1%	3.4%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	216	70
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	69
Justin Marks L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SW	3.83	18.7%	11.0%	1.7%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	324	69
Pedro Feliciano L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	31	SU	3.90	21.1%	7.6%	2.9%	.309	3.02	22.1%	14.9%	122	-0.88	2.69	378	68
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	68
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	68
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	68
Brian Fuentes L 2007 · 3.68 FIP	31	SU	3.68	22.0%	9.0%	2.4%	.235	3.19	25.4%	16.4%	166	-0.49	2.08	602	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	21.9%	10.9%	1.30	4.79
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
J.J. Hoover ('18)	1.4	57	23.8%	11.4%	1.42	4.17
Bill Risley ('98)	1.1	55	21.9%	10.9%	1.26	3.98
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43