Keegan Collett

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	39	0	58	3.55	2.47	38.8%	16.2%	—	K 29.0% · BB 18.9% · FIP 3.93
2023	25	A+SD	33	2	44	4.87	3.44	33.5%	16.5%	—	K 25.8% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.85
2024	26	MIX2 levels	23	0	32	6.54	5.72	21.7%	18.4%	—	K 16.3% · BB 21.6% · FIP 6.91
2027PROJ	29	MLBSD	17	0	18	4.98	4.98	22.1%	13.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBSD	6	0	6	5.02	5.09	21.9%	13.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%22.1%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 2	10	2	24	112	36	22	1	20%	2.4	21.9%	24.6%	-2.7%	1.2%	4.56	5.05	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 2	10	2	24	112	36	22	1	20%	2.4	32.1%	19.6%	12.5%	0.9%	4.56	3.40	—
2021	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	0	26	124	49	24	4	0%	1.1	29.2%	22.8%	6.4%	5.1%	6.92	6.35	—
2021	23	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	23	0	26	124	49	24	4	0%	1.1	39.5%	19.4%	20.2%	3.2%	6.92	4.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	58	260	101	42	3	0%	1.5	29.0%	18.9%	10.0%	1.6%	3.55	3.93	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	58	260	101	42	3	0%	1.5	38.8%	16.2%	22.7%	1.2%	3.55	2.47	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	33	2	44	212	71	35	4	6%	1.3	25.8%	19.0%	6.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.85	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	33	2	44	212	71	35	4	6%	1.3	33.5%	16.5%	17.0%	1.9%	4.87	3.44	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	32	152	33	28	5	0%	1.4	16.3%	21.6%	-5.2%	4.5%	6.54	6.91	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	32	152	33	28	5	0%	1.4	16.3%	21.6%	-5.2%	4.5%	6.54	6.91	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	32	152	33	28	5	0%	1.4	21.7%	18.4%	3.3%	3.3%	6.54	5.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SD	17	0	18	76	17	10	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.5%	8.6%	3.0%	4.98	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	18	11	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.2%	5.02	5.09	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.2%	5.02	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.2%	5.02	4.71	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	100	33	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.2%	5.02	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		128	4	184	860	216	178	25	3%	1.4	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	2.9%	4.99	5.18	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	4	200	935	234	194	27	3%	1.4	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	2.9%	4.99	5.18	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keegan Collett (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	22.1%	13.5%	3.0%	—	5.09	21.9%	8.5%	20	+0.11	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	79
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	77
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	76
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	76
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	76
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Scott Dohmann R 2007 · 4.28 FIP	29	SU	4.28	19.1%	12.5%	2.2%	.289	4.38	18.2%	9.1%	15	+0.10	4.28	173	75
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	75
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	74
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	74