Davis Bradshaw
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AA/A+MIA | 375 | .304/.375/.374 | 1 | 13 | 87 | — | .283/.340/.348 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA/A+MIA | 335 | .314/.384/.405 | 3 | 3 | 88 | — | .276/.330/.354 |
| 2024 | 26 | A/ROKMIA | 85 | .316/.381/.355 | 0 | 5 | 63 | — | .253/.298/.291 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 106 | 93 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 376 | 453 | 484 | 937 | 108 | 438 | 12 | 9 | 420 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 247 | 225 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 258 | 303 | 307 | 610 | 49 | 320 | 18 | 3 | 272 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 201 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 299 | 373 | 388 | 761 | 90 | 345 | 14 | 7 | 342 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 101 | 84 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 286 | 390 | 357 | 747 | 71 | 375 | 20 | 13 | 342 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 274 | 245 | 76 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 310 | 369 | 380 | 749 | 69 | 357 | 13 | 6 | 334 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 34 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 353 | 355 | 708 | 65 | 346 | 15 | 6 | 323 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 301 | 268 | 85 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 54 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 317 | 388 | 410 | 798 | 93 | 387 | 18 | 7 | 360 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 69 | 62 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 323 | 382 | 339 | 721 | 16 | 392 | 16 | 7 | 329 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 16 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 429 | 804 | 143 | 333 | 12 | 12 | 358 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 106 | 97 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 299 | 358 | 371 | 730 | 72 | 366 | 18 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 247 | 229 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 59 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 214 | 253 | 253 | 506 | 39 | 277 | 24 | 2 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 206 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 272 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 78 | 321 | 18 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 101 | 89 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 270 | 350 | 337 | 687 | 67 | 366 | 25 | 9 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 274 | 250 | 72 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 288 | 336 | 352 | 688 | 64 | 332 | 16 | 4 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 34 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 312 | 607 | 62 | 299 | 18 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 301 | 276 | 77 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 68 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 279 | 334 | 359 | 693 | 80 | 354 | 23 | 4 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 69 | 64 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 266 | 309 | 281 | 590 | 16 | 340 | 22 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 16 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 333 | 583 | 133 | 252 | 19 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 106 | 97 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 299 | 358 | 371 | 730 | 72 | 372 | 18 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Marlins | — | 106 | 93 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 376 | 453 | 484 | 937 | 108 | 438 | 12 | 9 | 420 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 247 | 229 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 59 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 214 | 253 | 253 | 506 | 39 | 288 | 24 | 2 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | Clinton LumberKings | — | 247 | 225 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 258 | 303 | 307 | 610 | 49 | 320 | 18 | 3 | 272 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 206 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 272 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 78 | 331 | 18 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 201 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 31 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 299 | 373 | 388 | 761 | 90 | 345 | 14 | 7 | 342 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 340 | 96 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 71 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 282 | 337 | 347 | 684 | 65 | 352 | 19 | 5 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 375 | 329 | 100 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 56 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 304 | 375 | 374 | 749 | 70 | 361 | 15 | 8 | 336 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 307 | 84 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 274 | 330 | 345 | 676 | 72 | 351 | 22 | 4 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 335 | 299 | 94 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 59 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 314 | 384 | 405 | 789 | 90 | 382 | 18 | 7 | 356 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 85 | 78 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 269 | 321 | 308 | 629 | 38 | 344 | 20 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 85 | 76 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 316 | 381 | 355 | 736 | 39 | 381 | 15 | 8 | 334 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 106 | 96 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 302 | 358 | 375 | 733 | 73 | 366 | 18 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 247 | 233 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 59 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 210 | 253 | 249 | 502 | 39 | 277 | 24 | 2 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 228 | 207 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 271 | 333 | 348 | 681 | 77 | 321 | 18 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 344 | 96 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 71 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 279 | 337 | 343 | 680 | 64 | 341 | 19 | 5 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 306 | 84 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 275 | 330 | 346 | 677 | 72 | 348 | 22 | 4 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 85 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 266 | 321 | 304 | 625 | 38 | 323 | 20 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 85 | 79 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 266 | 321 | 304 | 625 | 38 | 323 | 20 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1376 | 1257 | 335 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 60 | 281 | 40 | 50 | 24 | 267 | 321 | 329 | 650 | 63 | 338 | 20 | 4 | 282 | 77 | -37 | +0 | +0 | -8 | +30 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 158 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 133 | 19 | 24 | 11 | 266 | 320 | 327 | 646 | 61 | 338 | 20 | 4 | 282 | 77 | -18 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 69 PAwOBA .321 → .264 (−57)K% 15.9% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.94% | ÷1.029 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.25% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.960 | 32.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.960 | 1.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.960 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.888 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .321 → .264; ISO .016 → .013; BABIP .392 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 16 PAwOBA .349 → .245 (−104)K% 12.5% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.987 | ×1.440 | — | — | 18.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 7.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 5.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .349 → .245; ISO .143 → .095; BABIP .333 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 301 PAwOBA .350 → .303 (−47)K% 17.9% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.94% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.31% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.32% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.24% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.044 | ×0.978 | 30.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.67% | ÷1.113 | ×0.810 | ×1.044 | ×0.978 | 3.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.016 | ×0.850 | ×1.044 | ×0.978 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.817 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.34% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 99, 2B 123, 3B 103, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.
Result: wOBA .350 → .303; ISO .093 → .078; BABIP .387 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 34 PAwOBA .315 → .259 (−56)K% 14.7% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 3.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 26.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .315 → .259; ISO .065 → .051; BABIP .346 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 274 PAwOBA .326 → .295 (−32)K% 13.1% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.14% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 16.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.47% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.62% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 28.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.83% | ÷0.950 | ×0.810 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 3.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.068 | ×0.850 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.48% | ÷0.885 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.43% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 114, K 102, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .326 → .295; ISO .069 → .061; BABIP .357 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 101 PAwOBA .334 → .300 (−34)K% 19.8% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.80% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.87% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.98% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 28.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .334 → .300; ISO .071 → .067; BABIP .375 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 228 PAwOBA .337 → .294 (−42)K% 13.6% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.60% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.58% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.95% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 3.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.24% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 27.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.226 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 2.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 2.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.52% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 99, 2B 145, 3B 99, K 104, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .337 → .294; ISO .090 → .075; BABIP .345 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AClinton LumberKings · 247 PAwOBA .264 → .220 (−44)K% 17.8% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.81% | ÷1.019 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.83% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.83% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.07% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 23.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.87% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.936 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.085 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .264 → .220; ISO .049 → .041; BABIP .320 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).